Osun’s political dynamics for 2026

BY OGUNTOYE OPEYEMI

When former Governor Ayodele Fayose of Ekiti state was defeated by Dr Kayode Fayemi in 2010, it seemed like an insurmountable task at the time. However, Fayemi, a progressive candidate, came prepared, backed by strong financial support and key figures in the south-west. Despite this, his victory was short-lived, as Fayose made a dramatic comeback in 2014, armed with the support of the ruling party at the time, PDP, the presidency, and security forces.

Before the 2014 election, the state was awash with billboards and posters emblazoned with the phrase “ko duro soke” (Let him remain on top), a reference to Fayemi. However, between 2010 and 2014, Fayemi’s leadership style had become too elitist for the common people, a crucial disconnect that contributed to his downfall. A survey conducted during this period revealed that many felt he was out of touch with their needs—an offence that ultimately led to his loss of popularity.

A week before the election, Fayemi’s convoy was attacked by the mobile police, led by Gabriel Selekere, resulting in the tragic death of one of his supporters. Further complicating matters, national opposition leaders, including former Governors Adams Oshiomhole and Nasir El-Rufai, were blocked by the police from showing support for Fayemi’s re-election. This series of events left Fayemi isolated, with no support from the federal government or his own party.

Nevertheless, Fayemi made a powerful comeback in 2018. This time, he had the same backing that had been used against him in 2014: the support of the federal government, financial resources, and strong alliances. These elements helped him secure the re-election that had eluded him four years earlier.

Now, as Osun’s former governor, Adegboyega Oyetola, prepares for a potential comeback in 2026, the question arises: can his path replicate Fayemi’s 2018 re-election? The situation in Osun is uniquely challenging, yet clear parallels exist.

In Fayemi’s 2018 re-election, all stakeholders came together to support him, including many former political rivals. At the time, the PDP was in turmoil, with Fayose’s internal party conflicts causing many members to abandon him and his candidate. This disarray allowed Fayemi to gain widespread support, even from key figures in the opposition. Unfortunately, this level of unity is less likely in Osun, where Oyetola’s re-election prospects are hampered by deep political divisions. It seems unlikely that key stakeholders, especially influential figures in regions like Ife, Ede, and Ilesha, will rally behind Oyetola as they did for Fayemi.

Incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke has adopted a similar strategy to Fayose’s. As a seasoned party man, he has strong grassroots support and is deeply connected with the people. Adeleke’s leadership style, which mirrors the old Western political tradition of direct engagement with constituents, contrasts sharply with Oyetola’s more elitist approach. Adeleke regularly participates in local cultural activities, engaging directly with the people in a way that is difficult for leaders like Oyetola to replicate.

One of Oyetola’s key challenges during his tenure was his focus on large-scale infrastructural projects, which, while important, were often seen as distant from the immediate needs of the common people. In the 2014 election, a survey conducted by Nicholas Ibekwe of Premium Times revealed how ordinary citizens felt disconnected from Fayemi’s vision. When Ibekwe asked a motorcyclist about the state’s impressive new Pavilion, the motorcyclist shook his head and replied, “Egbon, e fi’yen le” (Brother, let’s not talk about it). This response encapsulated the disconnect between Fayemi’s vision and the daily realities of the people.

Oyetola, on the other hand, did succeed in raising the state’s internally generated revenue to its highest level since the state’s creation, providing a significant boost to the economy, especially in towns like Osogbo. However, this achievement was undermined by political infighting, particularly his unnecessary feud with former Governor Rauf Aregbesola. Aregbesola, who had completed his tenure and no longer had political ambitions, was still an influential figure within the party. Many saw the conflict as unwarranted and ultimately damaging to Oyetola’s re-election bid. Aregbesola’s supporters, including key political figures, chose to back other candidates, contributing to Oyetola’s defeat.

The possibility of the APC retaking Osun remains, but the greatest obstacle is Aregbesola’s influence. Many of his loyalists have now distanced themselves from the APC, particularly after his fallout with President Bola Tinubu. Aregbesola’s shift in allegiance, moving from supporting the president to backing his cousin’s faction, has created tensions within the party, making it difficult to unite factions in Osun.

In recent years, it has become evident that effective leadership is not just about academic credentials or policy implementation; it’s about connecting with the people and allowing them to feel included in decision-making processes. Politicians who can forge strong relationships with their constituents tend to have the most enduring support. Fayemi’s 2018 re-election benefited from cooperation across party lines, which made national support for his re-election more seamless. In contrast, Oyetola’s inability to mend divisions within his party, especially with Aregbesola’s loyalists, undermined his chances of victory.

Aregbesola’s supporters, many of whom now hold prominent positions in Governor Adeleke’s administration, continue to pose a significant challenge to the APC. Adeleke, whose government relies heavily on federal allocations, has found ways to navigate the state’s economic challenges, but there are powerful political figures who could shift their loyalty in favour of President Tinubu.

A political party that is desperate to retake the state from the Peoples Democratic Party ought to start its planning now to ensure that all political gladiators are already on board or negotiations are on the way to bring them to the table. Winning Osun should be the first and most prioritised political chess game for Mr. President as this will be his litmus test for his re-election in 2027. Recall that APC lost the state to PDP in the last general election due to the effect of Governor Ademola Adeleke and the president must not assume that the north will give him all the overwhelming support in 2027. So it’s important that he clears all obstacles in his region before the next general election and Osun is a major hurdle that he has to cross.

In reality, it would be advisable to bring a fresh eye and relatable candidate for Osun state. This is by nature to easily appease all parties in the state, most especially other factions that haven’t benefited from this government.

Leaders in Ife, Iwo, Ejigbo, and Ede have been neglected as some in the state assumed that everyone who belongs to the faction of the former governor are the only one being compensated in this government, which is a greater danger and precedent that can make the journey for the return of the APC more difficult. In fact, the opinion of the grassroots politicians in the state is that some of the federal government appointees are not physically viable, or relevant for the party in the state, which at this period, should not be happening as more grassroots empowerment ought to be the focus, which will aid the return of the party in 2026.

The lawlessness experienced during the PDP era where a state governor and speaker were at loggerheads, using different security arms to threaten and harass each other in Ogun state is gone. We have a democrat as the president now who wouldn’t compromise, not even for his own cousins. So, the leverage that Fayose had would not repeat itself in Osun state or any other in the country as long as President Tinubu is in the seat. As such, the dialogue options would be advisable, as this gives a clear chance for the progressive to retain the number one at the living spring state.

Just before the last governorship election in the state, a video surfaced on social media where Governor Ademola Adeleke boasted to his party members that: “I have arrived with lots of cash for voters, not just Naira, but dollars, Pounds and Euro.” His brother, Dr. Adedeji, who happens to be a billionaire had never hidden his admiration and support for his brother, Governor Adeleke, and in every aspect of their dealings from the past three years, it is certain that he would boldly support the re-election of his brother.

The APC on the other hand, even while in power tried to use a musical artist to sway the citizens and, advertise some of the key policies implemented by the former Governor Oyetola. This led to the involvement of the controversial musical artist, Habeeb Okikiola, popularly known as Portable to lead the campaign. However, the family tie of Adeleke, who naturally has an A-list artist, David Adeleke ‘Davido’, who unequivocally supported his uncle, overshadowed the performance of Portable in every town and city of Osun state.

David Adeleke ensured that he cancelled all the international/local concerts to wholly support his uncle for the governorship election. And with the recent events, the artist will certainly go all out again for his uncle in the upcoming re-election. So, it is going to be a hard-fought battle as APC will have to devise a new means to either get a less controversial, popular and A-list artist to defuse the charms of the Adeleke dynasty.

The progressive party must begin its planning without delay to avoid repeating the mistakes of others who have attempted comebacks but ultimately failed. For instance, despite the goodwill and strong performance of former Oyo state governor Alhaji Rasheed Ladoja, he was unable to make a successful return, eventually conceding defeat after contesting twice following his 2007 tenure.

Similarly, Timipre Sylva, another unfortunate governor, saw his tenure cut short by the courts on two occasions. After serving as a minister under President Muhammadu Buhari, Sylva tried again under the All Progressives Congress (APC) but failed to secure victory, losing twice to candidates from his former party, the Peoples Democratic Party. The APC was deeply divided in Bayelsa at the time, and key figures like David Lyon and his supporters were unable to reach a consensus.

In Anambra state, former Governor Chris Ngige also made several unsuccessful attempts to return to the government house, first under the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and later under APC. Despite implementing significant projects during his first term, such as road infrastructure development, lifting the employment embargo, and reinstating frozen promotions, the electorate ultimately did not deem him fit for a comeback. This outcome was largely due to deep divisions within his party and the formidable opposition posed by the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), which held a firm grip on the state’s political landscape.

A fresh, relatable candidate will be essential—one who can appeal to all factions and regions in Osun. Many local leaders feel sidelined by the current administration, perceiving a bias toward Oyetola’s faction. If this sense of neglect continues, it could exacerbate divisions within the party, making it harder for the APC to regain support.

For the APC to reclaim Osun, it must learn from the mistakes of past political battles. The party needs to bridge internal divides, unify its factions, and select a candidate who resonates with the people. Osun is a key state for President Tinubu’s re-election in 2027, and securing victory there should be a top priority.

Ultimately, the people of Osun deserve leadership that listens to them, engages with them, and genuinely understands their needs. The APC must revisit its strategy to ensure a victory that benefits not only the party but the citizens of Osun.

Oguntoye Opeyemi can be contacted via Twitter:@ EquityOyo