Parable of the mud

I don’t know what to make of this political season: do you?  There’s just one thing I can relate it to: it is the parable of the mud with three theories. In his 100-day discourse on Muhammadu Buhari’s presidency that was cleverly written under the sexy headline of ‘A New Sherriff is in Town’ the President’s spokesperson, Femi Adesina, wittingly passed a message. “Some people say the sheriff did not hit the ground running, as he is yet to constitute his cabinet in 100 days. And I usually ask such people: when you hit the ground, and you land in mud, how do you begin to run immediately? You can only sink deeper, if you attempt to run. The thing to do is to first clear the mud, till you get to terra firma, and then you can begin to run.”

Yes, there’s no ambiguity in the “mud” that President Buhari must contend with as Nigeria’s new leader, if my reading of Adesina’s mind is accurate, but honestly, Buhari has got more than the mud of erratic power supply, dwindling economic fortune of Africa’s supposed powerhouse, corruption and associated governance issues to deal with.

The other elephant in the room is the reputation of his partymen. That I think is the mud Buhari may be trying to clear at the moment. The perception by the public that several power-holders in the All Progressives Congress (APC) are corrupt and that the formation of the party was based on different ideology that made it an amalgamation of people with concealed motives have been such serious issues that Buhari cannot pretend for too long that they are not there. Even the APC’s town criers like Lai Muhammed and Joe Igbokwe will do everything to call Buhari’s attention to why someone like the Senate President, Dr. Bukola Saraki shouldn’t be allowed to survive as a party leader. It will spell doom for the party, they would say.

So what will Buhari do?  Look the other way and watch the reputation of the party he now leads go down or confront those issues headlong, albeit surreptitiously and gain the confidence of Nigerians to add more mileage on this journey of four years?

If you’re Buhari, I’m sure you’ll be interested in scoring more points within and outside the party. That’s exactly what I think has happened with the ongoing trial of Nigeria’s number three man, Bukola Saraki, who finally had his day with the Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT) after a rebuff.

Though, the president’s Senior Special Assistant on Media, Shehu Garba, has said his master has no hand in Saraki’s trial, but he didn’t do it convincingly when he placed more emphasy on the capacity of CCT to try Saraki. “As an independent institution equal to any superior court of record, the tribunal is set up by the constitution to determine the issue of default, false declaration or forgery in assets declaration. This therefore is purely a judicial process and has nothing to do with the Presidency… If anyone has an axe to grind with what they (CCB and CCT) are doing, they should do it in a judicial manner by challenging those actions in a proper court of law. Let them hire a good team of lawyers to prove their innocence,” Garba said in a statement reported by several newspapers on Monday. Since it is not the duty of Garba to speak for CCT, he may have unknowingly revealed the mind of his boss about the issue. This is the first theory.

And this, we all know that Buhari and a number of APC leaders have not been working with Saraki since he helped Senator Ike Ekweremadu of the opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party, to become the Senate Deputy President on one hand and for his (Saraki) dissident act to party rule that saw him climbed to the top position in the Senate on the other hand. In fact, you need to read Igbokwe’s No Tear for Saraki to understand how bitter the APC leaders are about him. “What Senator Saraki did is unheard of in the history of party politics. Saraki made the world to believe that APC leaders are unprepared for the task of governing this country. Saraki’s inordinate ambition at once put a question mark on the capacity of leaders of APC to drive leadership in Nigeria…Saraki and his gang of forty thieves devastated the master plan of our great party to choose the right people to serve as the Principal Officers in the National Assembly. Since July 9 2015 when this shenanigan took place in the Senate and the huge dust it raised, Senator Saraki has remained adamant to disobey the Party’s directives and step aside rather he has continued to run from pillar to post to sustain a stolen seat,” Igbokwe wrote.

Clearly, that split in the Senate among the APC members over who should lead them has now boomeranged with the arraignment of Saraki, before the CCT on Tuesday. It is our historic first. No sitting Senate President ever sat in the dock for corrupt practices in Nigeria since independence. Saraki is being charged for false assets declaration to which he has pleaded not guilty. The lesson is clear: scapegoating a sitting Senate President will send jitters down the spine of anyone in the country who may want to test the might of the new sheriff.  And while it is dicey now to say how the ongoing trial of Saraki will turn out in the end, giving Saraki’s deep knowledge of political maneuver, this is clearly a case of mud in which President Buhari will have to skillfully clear out of the way, if he must keep his kaftans clean as a man with respect for the rule of law. Though, the mud wouldn’t have been necessary but for the relentless determination of the All Progressives Congress to maintain a rigid party orthodoxy within its ranks. This is the second theory.

The last angle in this parable of the mud may really be about 2019 elections. It is not something we should dismiss. There have been beer parlour talks about how the Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-rufai is making his way ready for 2019, should Buhari decides to do just one term. Those carrying the rumours have said the best way is to eliminate Saraki early since his body language suggests he will be interested in the race as well and with his current position, his influence may make way for him. I don’t believe in this, because any political permutation for a successor at this stage, when the current president has barely spent three months in power will only end where it should belong: the garbage. But since El-rufai’s name came up during the trial as the person who sold one of the houses that Saraki allegedly failed to declare as part of his assets, I decided that this is worth given a thought as the number three theory. What do you think?

This article first appeared in THISDAY.