Politically powerful, yet economically stunted

BY ZUHUMNAN DAPEL

Nigeria boasts of three BIGS. First, of being the biggest democracy in Africa; second, the leading producer of crude oil in Africa and third, the largest economy on the African continent. Yet, sceptics and critics of the nation’s economic progress often point to a catastrophically bad number: Nigeria is deemed the world’s home to the highest population of poor people on the planet. But within the country, one region is being blamed for driving up the poverty population, thus underpinning the situational irony of Nigeria’s inter-regional political and economic struggles. What’s that region and how was this contradiction shaped for over half a century?

Geographically, the country is evenly split into six geo-political zones: three in the north and three in the south. For decades, the nation’s heterogeneity – across geography, ethnicity, and religion – has been at the fulcrum of the debate on the distribution of political power and economic opportunities, thus vindicating the need for the rotation of the national political power between the north and the south. 

The call for a presidential power shift is predicated on the pre-independence default set up of the country: the political power resides in the north, the national wealth (oil) in the south. It would have been a disaster to have both in one region and none in the other region. Political power is therefore often deemed as an instrument with which to tap some of the wealth from the south and move it to the north. 

Nonetheless, despite decades of power concentration in the north (46 years out of 62 years), there is a greater concentration of poverty in the north than in the south – a clear case of a politically powerful, yet economically powerless region. Why?

The north-south poverty divide, and the myth of power rotation

Does regional power rotation in Nigeria reallocate the economic benefits of democracy across the country? Put differently and specifically, is Bayelsa state now more prosperous during and after the presidency of Goodluck Jonathan (former head of state) than it otherwise would have been? Or will Katsina state be economically well-off because President Muhammadu Buhari (the current president) is a native of the state?

We cannot untangle the truth about this question nor bring everyone into an agreement regarding regional power rotation as this will never happen, for the simple reason that no single scientific truth exists about the ideal of power-sharing in a mixed setting like Nigeria. Ultimately, it is up to public contestations, political organisations, and their processes to determine what should be. Nonetheless, some stylised facts – which seem to rip apart the notion that power distribution matters for growth – are uncontested. These are the facts.

That the northern region accounts for over 70 percent of the country’s national poverty rate and roughly 73 percent of presidential power concentration. A closer look at the number reveals a couple of striking truths. Six states – four from the north and two from the south – have ruled the country for 50 years: Katsina (Yar’adua and Buhari); Niger (Babangida and Abdulsami); Kano (Murtala and Abacha); Ogun (Obasanjo and Shonekan); Plateau (Gowon) and Bayelsa (Jonathan).

Moreover, between 1999 and 2019, Plateau state from north central Nigeria had three of its natives – Ishaya Aku, Damishi Sango and Solomon Dalung – appointed into the presidential cabinet of past governments to head the country’s ministry of sports. Yet, the trio were powerless, within two decades, in leveraging the levers of power towards establishing a fully functional international football stadium in Jos, the Plateau state capital, which happens to be their state of origin. 

Also, 12 out of 14 military chiefs and other top civilians serving in the current government’s ministry of defence are drawn from one major region of the country. Contrary to expectations, the region is now the most security-challenged part of the country. The brass of military echelons from this province seems to be ineffective in using the potency of their offices to significantly benefit their native region even in combating the seemingly uncontainable level of insecurity in their states of origin. 

In terms of federal allocation, data from the National Bureau of Statistics show no evidence of significant increases in federal revenue allocation to Bayelsa and Katsina states before and during the presidencies of Jonathan and Buhari.

The bottom line is clear (ripping off the blinders for us to see): occupying key political positions is not always equivalent to wielding economic, political and security powers in a manner that suits their interests. This is because the distribution of the national economic pie and the exercise of political power is clearly defined and embedded in the nation’s sovereign document: The constitution.

North remains political leader and the south economic leader

Given the over half a century evolution of Nigeria’s political and economic landscape, the north, for decades to come, will continue to wield more political influence than the south and the south more economic influence than the north because of the absence of a strong positive connection guaranteeing access to economic opportunities via political power. At this juncture, it is important to note that even if the 2023 presential power shifted to the south, the power still resides in the north because of the long period (26 out of 29 years) of military rule in Nigeria by the north engrained bureaucrats in key government institutions. There, they’ll always be pulling switches and moving the levers of power.

On the flip side, the south will remain economically ahead of the north because of initial conditions predating the formation and independence of Nigeria. For instance, when early missionary settlers and colonialists first arrived in Nigeria they settled in the south years before penetrating the northern part of the country. The impact of this visit [via education] persists to date.

Contrasting with the north, the south is now the most educated – having strong European/North American ties and consequently with the largest Nigerian-diaspora population.

By default, the south is the biggest recipient of Nigeria’s huge remittance inflows. Therefore, the south, in terms of economic opportunities, will continue to pale in comparison with the north. This disparity may endure for as long as the country exists. However, the economic conditions in the north might have been much better than it is had the region been situated closer to the seaports to welcome and host early European colonisers.

Misery for many and benefits of power for a few

Arguably, it is observed that the flourishing of a region is not linked to the country’s president being a native of the region. However, a very tiny fraction (maybe a cabal) of the region’s population is economically empowered through the four most powerful and four juicy auxiliary presidential appointments: minister of justice, chief of army staff, the inspector-general of police, and the minister of finance.

The auxiliary slots are as follows: the governor of the central bank, the group managing director of the state-owned and state-run petroleum corporation, NNPC, the director general of customs and the chairman of the federal inland revenue service. Since the return to democracy in 1999, these positions have not only been filled by candidates from the same region as the president who appoints them, but also, through these positions, contracts and employment are offered to relatives, friends, and business associates sharing the same regional and ethnic affiliations with the president. 

But there is some hope on the horizon: the current Nigerian government—headed by a northerner—is continuing its aggressive exploration efforts for oil in the northern region that it started a few years back. Hopefully, the discovery of oil in commercial quantities will significantly change the fortune of those living in the region.

But will the new forthcoming oil lubricate the region’s engine of growth? And will the north leverage its political skills and strength to banish the region’s absolute poverty to the margins? Time shall tell!

Dapel can be reached via Twitter @dapelzg