Poll: Tinubu likely to win popular vote | run-off possible

A survey by Enough Is Enough (EiE), a civil society organisation (CSO), and SBM Intelligence, a research firm, has predicted a likely victory for Bola Tinubu, presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

In a report published on Friday, the organisations said the election forecast was based on a survey of 11,534 respondents across all 36 states and the federal capital territory (FCT).

According to the survey, Tinubu could win the popular vote depending on turnout in key states in the south-west and north-west.

The report added that there is a possibility of the country experiencing its first-ever run-off election, while Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will likely get 25 percent of votes in at least 24 states.

“The path to Aso Rock has been riddled with permutations and scenario planning primarily because, for the first time since the era of parliamentary democracy in the 1960s, there are three competitive political blocs, broadly distributed along the eastern, northern, and western regional divides with a smattering of swing states where they must compete for absolute votes and vote share. Unfortunately, there isn’t as much interest in the down-ballot races,” the report reads.

“Turnout will increase in the elections, but some states will experience a low turnout. Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar will score 25% in at least 24 states.

“Depending on turnout in Kano, Lagos, and a few other states in the NW and SW, Bola Tinubu could win the popular vote, setting Nigeria up for a runoff election for the first time ever.

“The APC could win 60 seats in the senate, while the PDP may win 46 seats, leaving a margin of three seats which could go either way or could be taken by third parties.

“In the house, we believe that the APC may lose its majority and win 160 seats, and the PDP may win 185 seats, leaving 15 seats to go either way or to smaller parties.”

Meanwhile, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has said it is prepared for the likelihood of a run-off.

You can read the full report of the survey here.