PREVIEW: What Super Eagles must do to have a chance of qualifying for 2026 World Cup

The Super Eagles may be on the cusp of history. Not the cheery history that would have the streets of Lagos and Port Harcourt pulsate with drunken jubilation, but the other type of history. The dark one. A potential failure that could completely zap the nation of its little wisps of excitement. The Super Eagles could be on the verge of failing to qualify for two consecutive FIFA World Cups for the first time since the country’s debut in 1994. 

Nigerians are accustomed to the Super Eagles’ struggles when World Cup qualifiers roll by. Over the years, Eagles have made fans emergency math enthusiasts, clicking calculators and computing permutations of qualifying for competitions, but things have always worked out. Fans have never experienced the pain of missing two World Cups in a row.

The sadness of losing the 2006 World Cup ticket to Angola was replied with double-fold joy when Nigeria qualified for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. However, the agony of surrendering the 2022 World Cup berth to Ghana might be aggravated by missing out on the 2026 edition.

Africa’s automatic qualification slots have been increased from five to nine countries for the 2026 World Cup, which will be co-hosted by the US, Mexico, and Canada. CAF divided African countries into nine groups for the qualifier, and winners of the nine groups will get automatic tickets for the World Cup. A tenth African country will participate in a six-nation playoff tournament to decide the last spot.

Despite the surplus avenue, the Super Eagles are struggling to make the cut. Nigeria remain winless in Group C, which includes South Africa, the Benin Republic, Zimbabwe, Rwanda and Lesotho. The Eagles are fifth with just three points from a possible 12 after four games.

Nigeria will play Rwanda and Zimbabwe next in the qualifiers, and these two games can make or mar the Eagles’ redemption arc.

HOW DID THE EAGLES DESCEND TO FIFTH IN GROUP C?

The Eagles’ first game of the qualifier was against Lesotho at the Godswill Akpabio Stadium in Uyo. It took a second-half header from defender Semi Ajayi to help Nigeria rescue a point after Motlomelo Mkhwanazi had given Lesotho the lead.

The second game against Zimbabwe was another one-all draw, with the Eagles playing catch-up after conceding the first goal.

The third game was against South Africa in Uyo on June 7. The match was barely four months after the Eagles’ silver medal-winning performance at the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) in Cote d’Ivoire. But that form failed to translate into performance, as Nigeria endured another 1-1 draw to Bafana Bafana. A few days later, the worst happened: the Eagles lost 2-1 away to the Benin Republic in a shambolic performance that culminated in Finidi George’s exit as the team’s coach.

HOW ARE OTHER TEAMS IN THE GROUP FARING?

Nigeria’s only solace from the poor start to the qualification campaign is the inconsistency of their opponents in Group C. Despite the Eagles’ abysmal results, they are only four points below the group’s summit and its privilege of automatic qualification.

Rwanda, South Africa, and the Benin Republic are currently joint-top with seven points, separated by goal difference. They have all managed two victories each and are not exactly out of reach for Nigeria in the qualification race.

With six more games, the Eagles still have ample time to turn the tide, catch up with these teams, and eventually win the group.

HOW CAN THE EAGLES QUALIFY?

The Eagles’ fate has not been outsourced to other teams to mould just yet. First, Nigeria must defeat Rwanda today in Kigali and then do the same to Zimbabwe in Uyo four days later. Any result short of two resounding victories against these teams would further compound Nigeria’s problems.

The Eagles still have to play every team in the group at least once more. Victories in the remaining six games would certainly seal Nigeria’s qualification. The most crucial matches will be South Africa away and hosting the Benin Republic. Nigeria must ensure at least four points from these two games to be in contention for the group winner.

However, if the Eagles finish second and fall short of the automatic qualification spot, there is still an opportunity to be one of the four best second-place teams to get a playoff spot.

The best four runner-ups from the nine African qualification groups will compete in a knockout contest, and the winner will advance to the inter-confederation playoff that will decide the final two qualification slots for the 2026 World Cup.