THE QUESTION: Is Buhari scared of engaging Jonathan in a presidential debate?

On January 14, President Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari – the two biggest combatants in the 2015 presidential election – embraced each other publicly in a rare show of camaraderie that was commended by a public particularly concerned that heated polity was becoming overheated.

Jonathan and Buhari, alongside 12 other contestants, signed a peace accord ahead of the general election, and the Nigeria Election Debate Group (NEDG) announced that it would be organising a debate for the contestants for the highest office in the land.

Nigerians were really looking forward to the opportunity of hearing the gladiators articulate their plans for the country, against the campaign outings that were dwelling more on calumny and and mudslinging. But Nigerians itching to watch Jonathan and Buhari embrace again anytime before the election may have to perish the thought. Buhari does not favour a debate with Jonathan!

THe BON/NEDG DEBATE SNUB

Two weeks later, Buhari suddenly opted out, citing potential bias of the organisers. It was an announcement that elicited criticism from the ruling party.

Having earlier generated controversy for presenting an affidavit to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in place of his statement of results, PDP wasted little time in directing further attacks at him.

They alleged that he withdrew from the debate because he knew that he could not match the intellectual capacity of Jonathan, a PhD holder.

Garba Shehu, director of media and publicity of APC presidential campaign, said Buhari decided to shun the programme because of “hidden bias and campaign of calumny by some of its key organisers”, the argument did not seem to hold water. He alleged that organisers of the debate were mainly of agencies and allies of the PDP administration, saying that it was fraught with fundamental errors from the outset.

But the PDP would have none of that. Uche Secondus, the deputy national chairman of PDP, challenged any other group to organise the debate, adding that Jonathan would be available at any time.

“Buhari is afraid to debate with Jonathan. We are inviting NUJ (Nigerian Union of Journalists) or any other debate group to organise a debate. President Jonathan will certainly come and tackle you,” he said on Friday during the presidential campaign of PDP in Akwa Ibom state.

SILENCE ON NEUTRAL DEBATE

However, the Murtala Muhammed Foundation (MMF) presented Buhari another opportunity to go debate with Jonathan, but “mum” is the word from the APC camp.

A day after MMF announced its debate, Channels Television, Arise TV and the Newspapers Proprietors Association of Nigeria (NPAN), announced a collaboration to organise another forum for the presidential aspirants.

But Buhari will not attend the programme again, citing similar allegations to those of the past.

“There is intelligence available to us to suspect the partisanship of some of the organisers, not all, but some members of the organising body, and we have concrete intelligence to prove that they are partisan,” Dele Alake, director of strategic communication for Buhari Campaign Organisation, said on Monday.

BUHARI’S PREVIOUS PARTICIPATION

Strangely, Buhari participated in electoral debates during two of his previous attempts in 2007 and 2011. So, what could be the motive behind Buhari’s refusal this time ? Is he up to something known only to his close allies? Could this be a deliberate strategy or a way of paying back the PDP in its coin?

Former president Olusegun Obasanjo boycotted the debate in 1999 and 2003, the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua did the same in 2007 and Jonathan toed that line in 2011. Buhari, it would seem, is the latest to catch the boycott bug.

BUHARI’S LOSS, PDP’S GAIN

Femi Fani-Kayode has taunted APC that the PDP would floor Buhari even in a debate organised by the opposition party.

“As a matter of fact, let me take this opportunity to throw the challenge to the APC and General Buhari: if it will make him feel more comfortable, let them organise the debate; let it be an APC-organised debate; let them have an APC panel; let them have questions that they will show their candidate even before we get there; we do not need to see the questions; let them give their candidate a preview of the questions; they can even have a prepared answer for their candidate to read if he finds it difficult to articulate his views and positions. We are prepared for all that,” he said.

“Let them have all those advantages and tell us about what they are going to do.  As long as it is a live debate, we will be prepared to go even to that debate; and even at that point, under those circumstances, we would floor General Buhari and the president will do an admirable job by letting the Nigerian people know precisely what he stands for and he will also expose General Buhari for what he is.

“So whatever the circumstances, we are rearing to go.  The challenge has been put to them and we are waiting for them to respond. Anywhere, anytime in this country, we are prepared to participate.  It is the other side that is running away.”

BUHARI SHOULD DEBATE

If Buhari can not find one debate-organising group to trust and grab just one opportunity to engage Jonathan in an intellectual contest, he could be inadvertently offering validation to arguments in some quarters that he is too old to be president.

He would have successfully undermined the Nigerian electorate. The minds of most voters are already made up and the ongoing last-minute campaigns by both APC and PDP may be too little to late to change expected voting patterns, but this is not to say a Buhari presidential debate no-show could not cost a few hundred thousand votes.