THE QUESTION: Will Jega be sent on terminal leave in the middle of a general election?

The social media produced a viral rumour on Monday that Attahiru Jega, chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), had been asked to proceed on terminal leave with effect from March 1, 2015. The generator of the rumour even named a successor, Nazim Olufemi Mimiko, a professor of political science like Jega and also a former vice-chancellor, like Jega.

This rumour gained so much ground that it had to be officially denied. Kayode Idowu, Jega’s spokesman, said his principal was not a civil servant but a political appointee and could therefore not be asked to proceed on terminal leave. Bello Fadile, a retired colonel and director in the office of the national adviser, also denied the rumour.

Jega is almost becoming the issue in these elections. From the creation of additional polling units, which he had to backtrack on, to the chaotic distribution of the permanent voters cards (PVCs), the INEC chairman has been in the eye of the storm. Last week, the Southern Nigeria Peoples Assembly, an apparently pro-Goodluck Jonathan group led by Edwin Clark and Femi Okurounmu, called for the sack or resignation of Jega.

“We call for the immediate arrest of Jega for criminally masterminding the procurement of permanent voter cards for under-aged pupils in contravention of the provisions of the 1999 constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and the Electoral Act 2000,” Okurounmu stated on behalf of the group.

Jega vs Jonathan

TheCable had reported on Monday that presidency was angry with Jega for heaping the blame for the poll shift on the security agencies when, the sources alleged, the INEC chairman himself knew the commission would have made a mess of the election but for the “breather”. Jega was accused of passing the buck in order to extricate himself from blame.

Indeed, the reason given by Jega for the shift had made many Nigerians conclude that the postponement was actually at the instance of the president who was probably sensing defeat if the February 14 date had stood.  After all, the security agencies report to Jonathan. TheCable also reported that the military chiefs played the key role in the poll shift.

The ensuing rumour was natural: Jega will be removed. Not only that, he would be removed very soon. And not just that, a “pliant” chairman would be appointed. And who else but brother to Segun Mimiko, governor of Ondo state and a key supporter of Jonathan? All the dots seemed to be connected in a jiffy. They connect easily at rumour mills.

Civil or public servant?

However, the attempt to deny the rumour by Idowu was very weak and has failed to erase doubts on the immediate future of the Jega.

“Jega is busy preparing for the elections and you are asking about terminal leave. Does anyone planning to conduct elections go on terminal leave? There is nothing like that,” he said.

That was neither here nor there. You can work till the last minute as long as you are legally in office. If he were to proceed on leave on March 1 as speculated, he would still work till February 28.

Then Idowu added: “He is not a civil servant. His appointment was not guided by civil service rules and so he would serve until his tenure elapses on June 30 this year.”

Again, he shot over the bar. Jega’s successor, Maurice Iwu, a professor, was asked to go on terminal leave by Jonathan on April 28, 2010, a little less than two months to the fifth anniversary of his appointment which would have been his exit date. Iwu was an unpopular figure, so no hell was raised and nobody mourned his exit.

Nightmare scenario

What then? There is a nightmare scenario. Jega’s tenure officially ends on June 30, 2015. If he were to be forced to go on terminal leave, that can only be achieved from March 30. The presidential and national assembly elections are planned for March 28 while the governorship and house of assembly polls will hold on April 11.

And now the question: will the INEC chairman be asked to go on terminal leave in the middle of an election? More curiously, with elections on Saturday, March 28, results are traditionally announced on Monday, which will be March 30. Will he conduct the election and another person announce the results? And it gets more absurd: will one INEC chairman conduct presidential election and another INEC chairman the governorship poll two weeks later?

Okay, maybe there is a better solution: remove Jega before the rescheduled elections hold. But, wait a minute, Section 157 of the constitution states thus:  “Subject to the provisions of subsection (3) of this section, a person holding any of the offices to which this section applies may only be removed from that office by the president acting on a address supported by two-thirds majority of the senate praying that he be so removed for inability to discharge the functions of the office (whether arising from infirmity of mind or body or any other cause) or for misconduct.”

So the national assembly has a role to play then. But how easy will it be for Jonathan to get two-thirds of the senate to remove Jega? His Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) does not even control two-thirds of the senate. It complicates things a little, just as in the case of Sanusi Lamido Sanusi who was involved in a public spat with the president when he was governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Jonathan asked Sanusi to resign over his allegation that $48.7 billion (or $12 billion, perhaps $20 billion) oil money was missing or unaccounted for. Sanusi refused. By law, even though he was appointed CBN governor by the president, he can only be removed by two-thirds of the senate. And there was no tiny chance that it was going to happen. Jonathan was stuck.

Oh, Jonathan was not stuck. He suspended him, appointed an acting governor and nominated a new governor. Sanusi never returned to the office until his tenure expired, by which time he had already got what he wanted: the exalted position of the emir of Kano. It all ended in coronation.

But… does that mean Jonathan can now apply the Sanusi treatment to Jega? Now, that is a different calculation altogether.

That means the rumour mills will still be busy in the coming days. However, the likelihood of any of these scenarios playing out is not bright. It appears Jega will conduct the elections before leaving the job.