THE QUESTION: Why can’t Tinubu back Fashola?

The euphoria of the highly successful convention of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is gradually being tempered by the prolonged process in picking a running mate to Muhammadu Buhari, the presidential candidate. On the day President Goodluck Jonathan was, ceremoniously, picked as the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), he re-nominated his vice-president, Namadi Sambo, but it has not been that simple for the APC.

Why? If the opposition party wins the presidential election next year, Buhari will be 72 at the time of inauguration in May. Buhari, by projections, is expected to be essentially a figurehead, with those surrounding him calling the shots. As military head of state in 1983-85, Tunde Idiagbon, a major general and his deputy, was the face of the government. The same setting is expected to be replicated. Hence, the position of vice-president is highly coveted.

That the party has been embroiled in a fight-to-the-finish on who should fill this slot should not be surprising: politics could be a zero-sum game, in which my gain is your loss. The position has been ceded to the south-west because of the key role it is expected to play in the presidential election. Bola Tinubu, the political leader of the zone and a major force in the APC, is experiencing opposition from within over the reports that he wants to fill the slot by himself.

What is the way forward? Why can’t someone else be chosen? Below are the questions and answers on the running mate saga.

Why can’t Tinubu nominate Babatunde Fashola, the governor of Lagos, who is a very popular figure?

The initial plan fear was that APC should not field a Muslim-Muslim ticket because of religious sensibilities in the country, and this ruled out Fashola ─ just as it also shut out Tinubu. However, there are also those who argue that religion will not be an issue ─ all Buhari has to do is win in the Muslim north, and the votes from the south-west will complete the equation. Meanwhile, the south-west is not known to be particular about religion.

Therefore, if religion was not going to be a problem in the south-west, Tinubu could as well give the slot a go rather than nominate someone else. The thinking in Tinubu’s camp, sources told TheCable, is that Fashola cannot be trusted with power. He had, over the years, been involved in a cold war with Tinubu, who helped him become governor in 2007. This has been well managed over time, and the two men have always spoken glowingly about each other in public.

The final straw, however, was the December 4 governorship primary of Lagos state in which Fashola allegedly opposed Tinubu’s choice, Akinwunmi Ambode, and reportedly sponsored two candidates against him. Other Tinubu acolytes, such as Ganiyu Solomon and Adeyemi Ikuforiji, also tried to upstage their political leader. There was a silent campaign to “overthrow” Tinubu and “retire” him, and the governorship primary offered a rare opportunity. However, Tinubu’s candidate won by a landslide, and his hastily written obituary was deleted. The “coup plotters”, having been put in their place, are aware that they will not go scot-free.

“If Asiwaju ever thought of trusting Fashola again, the governorship primary put a final end to it,” a close friend of Tinubu told TheCable. “It was treachery of the highest order but Asiwaju not only foiled the coup, he gave all of them a knock-out. They should know by now who truly is in charge of the politics of the south-west. If you expect Tinubu to push Fashola for any office again, you are making a big mistake. He has learnt his lesson. He made Fashola governor in 2007 when everybody was against it, and now the same Fashola plotted a coup against him.”

If what the source said is true, then no one should expect Tinubu to support Fashola for the VP slot.

Can’t Buhari simply bypass Tinubu and pick Fashola?

On paper, it is easy. Buhari is the presidential candidate and he can choose to pick whoever he wants as his running mate. However, he did it thrice in the past and it backfired. In 2003, his biggest supporters were in the south-south, but he insisted on picking a south-easterner as his running mate. It did not work out. In 2007, he also picked his own running mate, and it failed.

In 2011, while Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) was still discussing with Tinubu’s Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) to forge an alliance for the election, Buhari went and picked Tunde Bakare, a pastor and lawyer, as his running mate and this effectively ended the alliance. Buhari lost. The simple logic then was that if the south-west had picked the running mate and worked with Buhari, the CPC-ACN alliance would have defeated Jonathan.

Buhari, obviously, wants to avoid this situation again. So he has decided to trust the south-west leader to do the job. If he picks Fashola without Tinubu’s endorsement, Tinubu may withdraw his political machinery.

In that case, Tinubu should nominate someone else apart from himself and Fashola. Can’t he simply pick a Christian from the south-west?

Tinubu’s most trusted choice is Yemi Osibajo, a professor of law and former attorney general and commissioner for justice in Lagos. Osibajo is also a pastor in the Redeemed Christian Church of God. However, Buhari is not impressed. Having tried out a pastor in 2011 and received the cold shoulder from the south-west ─ and the entire south, he is not in favour of it again. He wants a mainstream politician by his side.

Well, Kayode Fayemi is still there. So, all is not lost, isn’t it?

Fayemi has the same Fashola problem ─ he is not trusted by Tinubu anymore. He was accused of isolating Tinubu, who helped him become governor of Ekiti state four years ago. Fayemi has also been accused of always taking sides with those who oppose Tinubu. He is very close to Fashola, and during the fall-out between the Lagos governor and Tinubu in 2009-10, Fayemi did not hide his feelings.

Rightly or wrongly, Fayemi is said to have been abandoned by Tinubu in the Ekiti governorship election this year ─ and he lost to Ayo Fayose of the PDP. This, according to Tinubu associates, conclusively proved that those who said they did not need Tinubu to win elections are not correct.

In that case, the south-west should allow other southern zones to pick the running mate…

This is a possibility, but the Buhari camping is working with the assumption that the south-east and south-south are very likely to back Jonathan. Apart from the fact that Jonathan is a homeboy in the south-south, the south-east is one of the more comfortable areas for him electorally.

However, if Tinubu goes all out to mobilise the south-west for Buhari, the possibility of an APC victory will be higher. But if the south-west does not have anyone backed by Tinubu on the ticket, apathy may set in.