I have seen people leave parties, and it is usually dramatic. The thrill I get from the announcement of high-profile defections can only be rivalled by the emotions that accompany the knockout phases of international football tournaments. One player is virtually stripping himself naked (a la Samuel Eto’o) and jumping like an overfed kid in the rain, while the other, an Andrew Ayew for example, is crying profusely like a baby.

Until Monday, the most thrilling for me was the migration of Aminu Tambuwal, speaker of the federal house of representatives, from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC). On Tuesday October 28, 2014, he patiently allowed the plenary to end, and smartly got Mulikat Akande, majority leader of the house, to move the motion for a five-week adjournment of the house, before announcing he had crossed over to the other side. Even Akande was stunned.

But I have never seen something as deviously thrilling as Olusegun Obasanjo’s announcement of his PDP exit on Monday. After receiving information that the state chapter of the party was about to expel him, he handed his membership card to ward leader Sunmonu Oladunjoye, saying: “Tear it to pieces”.

“I am no more a politician; I am a statesman, both internally and externally,” he said after the dancing crowd of followers who witnessed the card-tearing ceremony calmed down.

So, what next for Obasanjo? Does remaining a statesman after falling out with President Goodluck Jonathan truly imply assuming an electioneering campaign neutrality that he never quite managed before the falling out? Or does it mean that while refusing the temptation to officially join APC, he would work for Jonathan’s opponent? Will Obasanjo work for Buhari? That is the question.

NO, HE WON’T

Jonathan, not PDP: Obasanjo’s real grouse is with the president and not the party. It’s hard to say at what point both men began to feud, seeing how glowingly Obasanjo spoke of Jonathan ahead of the 2011 presidential election. But OBJ’s 18-page December 2013 public letter to the president proved clearly that the hitherto sweet relationship had broken down. Some of the issues he raised were the president’s then rumoured second-term ambition after initially promising to only run one term, alleged corruption in NNPC, weak government response to insurgency and inter-party wranglings. In times to come, Obasanjo would raise other issues, the most important being the alleged wastage of the $35 billion his administration saved in the excess crude account. Until his card-tearing stunt on Monday, he had never publicly dissented against the PDP as an institution, so no chance he would switch to Buhari’s side.

OBJ’s heart will always be PDP: Obasanjo may have torn his card, but he didn’t tear his heart. He will never forget how instrumental the party was, to the man he has now become. Less than a year after he became president on PDP’s platform, he was cooling off in prison, following his arrest by the Sani Abacha regime for alleged involvement in a failed coup. In his closet, Obasanjo would surely remember that PDP changed his status from an ex-convict in need of rehabilitation to a president and now a “statesman” whose sneeze or cough is reported by the media. When the chips are down, OBJ would realise just how ungrateful he would be to partake in the dethronement of the party from the presidential villa.

YES, HE WILL

Fighter to standstill: If you know Obasanjo well enough, you are already aware by now that he doesn’t fight his battles half-heartedly. When he fights, it is fight to finish. If you try to humiliate him – by claiming, for example, that you are expelling him from a party once at his beck and call – you will not easily hear the last of him. Ask Atiku Abubakar, the most vehement opponent of his failed third term bid. Even when it became clear that the agenda had fallen and he had nothing to lose if Atiku became president, OBJ went on to engineer Atiku’s disqualification by Maurice Iwu’s INEC, which cited indictment for financial indictment by an investigative panel set up at the president’s behest. That’s the OBJ many people know; the one who fights to swallow up both the adversary and the war itself!

He doesn’t have to do it openly: Obasanjo will work for Buhari – and the reason is that he doesn’t really have to do it openly. As a matter of fact, he is already doing it. He recently hosted Buhari and other the APC leaders at his home in Abeokuta. Although he made no definite commitment to Buhari’s cause, there really is no explanation for the two-time president of a ruling party hobnobbing with the opposition.

Asked consistently whose candidature he supported, Obasanjo continued muttering the I-haven’t-made-up my-mind line, saying he would continue to evaluate both candidates until the day of the election before voting for the better candidate. Yet, speaking in Nairobi, capital of Kenya, at the launch of his controversial memoir, My Watch, on February 10, he spoke so glowingly of Buhari in a manner only “endorsement” could qualify.

“He’s smart enough. He’s educated enough. He’s experienced enough. Why shouldn’t I support him?” he said of the opponent of his party’s candidate.

Now, that’s the Obasanjo whose words cannot be entirely trusted. Those are the words of a man who says he is no longer a politician, only a states man both internally an externally, but may – or may not – go on to work for the opponent of his latest adversary.