THE QUESTION: Will Mallam Nuhu Ribadu become governor of Adamawa state

When the governorship election kicks off across 29 states of the country on Saturday morning, the stakes will be much higher in a few states than many others; and one of those high-stake states is Adamawa, where Nuhu Ribadu, erstwhile chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), will face off with Mohammed Umar Jibrilla, deputy chairman of the senate committee on defence and army.

Since 2003 when Ribadu was appointed by then president, Olusegun Obasanjo, to head EFCC, he has remained in the limelight, even during his time in exile. If he doesn’t win on Saturday, he will proceed on a journey to political oblivion – and he may never recover. Yes.

This time in 2011, Ribadu was the darling of the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), flying its presidential ticket with revered banker, Fola Adeola. But in a widely-criticised move, he defected to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) last year. That was at the time when hopes were high that a by-election would be conducted, following the impeachment of Governor Murtala Nyako and purported resignation of his deputy, Bala Ngilari.

First, the PDP governorship ticket, which he had been expected to secure, was stylishly taken away from him after the party announced that whoever contested the October 2014 by-election would not feature in the April 2015 election. No sooner had Ribadu withdrawn from that by-election (which never held, in any case) than APC leaders, led by Governor Rabiu kwankwaso, began mocking him.

“After he left the APC for the PDP, his new party did not find him worthy of its gubernatorial ticket,” Kwankwaso said. “I am sure the PDP stakeholders in Adamawa are now laughing at him. We sympathise with him.”

Ribadu soon had a laugh over Kwankwaso in December, as he polled 688 votes to trounce Bala Ngilari, who had become governor by then but could only garner 26 votes. But the real battle is on Saturday. If Ribadu wins, he has the last laugh. Should he lose, where will he return to? The APC he left in 2014 has nicked the presidency without him and has a majority grip on the national assembly, so he cannot bank on a prodigal-son welcome to the now-ruling party. Can Ribadu win without APC, same way the party won without him?

NO WAY, HE CAN’T

HE IS GREENHORN: Ribadu comes across as one of these gentlemen who make a success out of political appointments but never themselves secure elective offices. For all of Ribadu’s popularity, the truth is that he has never won an election. He might have been ACN’s presidential candidate in 2011, but nothing else can be said of his political career outside that lone effort. So, until Ribadu has won an election, he cannot be rated as favourite for any.

ADAMAWA IS FOR APC: If the result of the presidential election is anything to go by, Ribadu might as well go back home and start strategising for 2019. Two weeks ago, APC amassed a total 374,701 votes, while Ribadu’s party, the PDP, secured 251,664 votes. Should Saturday’s voting follow similar pattern, Jibrilla – rather than Ribadu – it is who will be singing the victory song.

SURELY, HE CAN

INCUMBENCY FACTOR WON’T COUNT: Ribadu is such a lucky man to be contesting against a man who is neither the incumbent nor enjoys the backing of an incumbent. Nyako, the man who would have been the incumbent, was impeached by the state assembly in 2014, following his defection from PDP to APC the previous year, and Ngilari, his deputy who remained in PDP, is serving out the remainder of the tenure. Ngilari will not be contesting, having lost the PDP ticket to Ribadu; while Nyako, the man who could be wielding the power of incumbency, is now somewhat deflated to tilt the battle in APC’s favour. Ribadu himself may not appreciate his luck until he has spoken with Jimmy Agbaje, the PDP Lagos governorship candidate who, in Bola Tinubu and Babatunde Fashola, is contesting against a still-relevant former incumbent plus an incumbent as well as their candidate, Akinwunmi Ambode. Ribadu should easily win.

HE STILL ENJOYS GOODWILL: It is inapposite to expect Saturday’s election to turn out a rehash of the March 28 presidential election. Residents of Adamawa voted for Buhari rather than APC or voted against Jonathan rather than against PDP. For all the controversies that dotted his reign at the helm of EFCC, Ribadu still enjoys goodwill from the people, who continue to see him as Nigeria’s quintessential anti-corruption image. Ribadu remains highly popular among the people; so PDP or APC, warts and all, the people will vote for him.

Wherever the pendulum would have swung by Sunday evening, Adamawa surely have offered an interesting scenario for political pundits.