Rebellion in APC: What happens to Buhari’s legacy?

A massive revolt is unfolding within the governing party against President Buhari, and my fear is that this may end up being the defining moment of the Buhari legacy. I hope that the president does not leave office in humiliation. Although oftentimes, outgoing leaders appear lame ducks with dwindling influence, they still command the respect and admiration of their cabinet members and party stalwarts. But in the case of Muhammadu Buhari, there are obvious scorn, contempt and disdain from his party members, including some governors, whom, just months ago, were fawning all over the old man.

Governor Nasir el-Rufai gave a series of interviews on TV a few weeks ago and announced that “some elements in the Villa, who are close to the President, want APC to lose this election”. Although he later clarified that he was not referring to the president, the hidden message in his claim was that Buhari is either unaware that his aides are sabotaging APC, or he just doesn’t care about the fate of the party that brought him to power. In whatever way it is interpreted, El-Rufai’s claim wasn’t commendatory of the president.

The Kaduna governor later doubled down on his assertion, informing party members in Kaduna to ignore the currency change policy. “Do not reject your old naira notes. Don’t bother to take them to the banks. Accept them and keep them. If Sani is elected governor, and Asiwaju Bola Tinubu is elected president, we will change this policy,” the governor enjoined the audience. Senator Uba Sani is the APC governorship candidate in Kaduna. El-Rufai is openly asking his people in Kaduna to go against the president and his main monetary policy because, in his wisdom, Tinubu will not only reverse the policy but will also protect them. Adams Oshiomhole, another brusque party leader, has also joined the rank of APC henchmen antagonising the president. He has been repeating the claim that the CBN had misled Buhari, but he could not explain why the Nigerian leader has not reversed the CBN policy all this while. Does Oshiomhole think that Buhari is a zombie who cannot think for himself?

Thereafter, three APC governors (Kogi, Kaduna and Zamfara) filed an action at the supreme court, seeking to reverse the CBN policy. More APC governors, including that of Lagos, have since joined the suit as plaintiffs. The governors claim that they want the Naira redesign reversed because they are fighting to save the masses from suffering brought about by the policy. As we await the court judgement, I should remind Nigerians that the EFCC has also, within this period, declared the wife and cousin of the Kogi governor wanted for corruption. Yes! The same Kogi governor who loves Nigerians so much that he has taken the federal government to court to reverse a policy has been taciturn on the embarrassing news of his wife being declared wanted by an anti-graft agency. El-Rufai has not said a word on this either.

Joining the revolt against the president yesterday, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos issued a stern warning to “those rejecting the old notes to desist from doing so, or face prosecution”. In a widely circulating statement signed by the commissioner for information, the governor further insists that, “it is against the law to reject the old notes as doing so is contrary to the position of the supreme court’’. This is an open confrontation from an APC governor against the federal government led by the same party. When last did this happen in this country?

The party’s presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu, has been particularly disrespectful of Buhari, dating back to the days before the presidential primary in June. He had recently claimed that the naira redesign and the intractable fuel scarcity were deliberately contrived to trigger his failure. His campaign has insinuated that the president is not even wholehearted enough in supporting and campaigning for Tinubu. In other words, Tinubu believes that if he fails this election, Buhari should be held responsible. If the governing party loses (and it is not unlikely), I can bet that Tinubu will explode in uncontrollable anger and he will definitely launch a series of visceral assaults against the president. APC governors like El Rufai who have been promised high-ranking roles in the Tinubu administration will openly denigrate the president.

Last year, in the infamous “emilokan’’ outburst in Abeokuta, Tinubu had reminded Buhari that he was the one that had singlehandedly made Buhari president in 2015 and that he had never asked for anything in return. If APC wins, there is no reason to expect that Buhari would be more favourite of the Tinubu presidency than persons like Obasanjo or IBB. In fact, I see Tinubu boasting that he won in spite of Buhari. “They thought that they could stop me with their machinations. But I pass them. I am smarter than them. I am tougher than them,” would be his standard refrain, even in his inauguration speech.

But why are we seeing this unprecedented backlash from APC chieftains against their president on this policy? Why are the other parties supporting the policy, while APC is the only one kicking against it? The answer lies in the briefing the CBN governor gave to the diplomatic community this week. Godwin Emefiele told the diplomats that the policy was designed to curb certain illicit activities, including vote-buying, and that some unscrupulous politicians are even desperately trying to mop up the new banknotes to hoard for vote-buying. The policy, according to the CBN chief, was also introduced to control inflation; stabilise exchange rates; improve financial inclusion by reducing the number of the unbanked population and combat banditry, ransom-taking and other illegal activities. Touting early signs of success, Emefiele stressed that the bank is aiming to achieve a 20%-40% cashless economy, indicating that “the optimal value of the currency in circulation for the Nigerian economy is only N700 billion”.

There is no doubt that APC chieftains and other politicians are rising in unison against the Naira redesign policy because it has the potency to reduce incidents of vote-buying during this election. We have been told that a certain presidential candidate had brought in $1.5 billion to exchange into Naira for vote-buying. They must be stopped. Despite the unintended hardship this policy had brought on the people, Nigerians are pleased that vote-buying would be curtailed. I support President Buhari and the CBN for standing up to these unpatriotic politicians. Clearly, these politicians could not be fighting the president because they love Nigerians so much; rather they want the policy to be reversed because a free and fair election could turn up unexpected results and many of the bad guys could be thrown out of office.

The president should also take responsibility for the uprising within his party. For his inability or unwillingness to skillfully shepherd his party to choosing a more urbane and dignified standard bearer, Buhari appeared timid, effeminate and scared. That set the stage for the unfolding mutiny we have been seeing within his party, and this could end up being the defining element of the Buhari legacy. Buhari had suffered a rebellion before as a military head of state. The experience traumatised him to no end, according to his wife. Will history repeat itself?