Have you received your invitation to the National Economic Conference?

I hate making categorical statements, but I am going to make one here, right away. If you have received an invitation to the proposed National Economic Conference, and you have something else to do on that day, don’t bother going.  It is not only going to be a talk shop, it is also going to be very rowdy.

There is no doubt that everyone is worried about what looks like a ‘devaluation’ induced inflation in Nigeria. My friend, Paul, told me the other day that the Naira has already been devalued. When I asked him if he meant that the Naira was depreciating, not devalued, he replied by telling me that HRH Sanusi Lamido said so. I tried to explain to him that Nigeria was practicing a fixed (pegged) exchange rate system, and that since the Naira’s value looks like it is now being determined by market forces (speculations and scarcity of dollars) it is already floating. Thus, in my view, depreciation might be the most appropriate word, not devaluation. Since, this was too technical for Paul, he suggested we go have a beer and forget about our troubles.

Everybody is now an economist in Nigeria, even my humble self who was trained as an engineer. Even the Vice President clashed with his neighbour at VGC, Joseph Sanusi, on whether to devalue or not. This is just one of the numerous fights we have had in the country since oil prices starting nose-diving and investors started taking their hot money away, and of course, started delisting our bonds. So, when Professor Wole Soyinka (pictured) advised Buhari to convene a National Economic Conference, he quickly agreed. He was tired of all the talk about the Naira and the economy. Besides, the National Economic Council (NEC) also suggested this kind of conference in January.

Why have I concluded that the conference will be another jamboree without facts? Am I not as naïve as those people who think that their own prognosis about the Naira is what government must implement? I will let you know why in a minute. Before I start, let me make two remarks. One, the conference is likely going to be about the fate of the Naira and diversification of the economy. Two, no matter how much we talk, oil prices are not going to hit $60 in the next 12 months. Since, we cannot diversify this economy without getting our currency right; I presume the jamboree will mainly be about the Naira.

Let me start from the one that makes me laugh anytime I see President Buhari on TV. In his last media chat, he said nobody has been able to convince him about devaluing the Naira. He said he even sat down with Kemi Adeosun, Godwin Emefiele and Udo Udoma, but they couldn’t convince him. For those who are planning to come to the conference with some beautiful PowerPoint presentations, think about what the President said in that media chat. I pity you if you think you can make President Buhari change his mind.

Don’t forget that the President went to pray with HRH Lamido Sanusi last week – they are quite close. If Sanusi can’t make him change his mind, then, who else can? Haven’t you heard some of Sanusi’s views, lately? He believes the Naira has already been devalued and that the President is just subsidizing the private sector. My King believes that this subsidy to the private sector, or elites as it were, could be detrimental to the poor.

People forget that Buhari was a military man. To me, he is among the class of military men that were well trained. Not the ones we have now. Some military men now sound and act like your everyday politician. But, you know what? He is learning the tricks very fast. Though he is not a master, yet, like former President Jonathan, he is fast becoming a good politician. Jonathan established numerous committees and even convened the National Conference just to keep people talking and douse the political tension in the land in 2014. Sorry, the last sentence is my personal opinion. What has come out from those committees? I suspect Buhari will be like since they don’t want to listen to my argument about the Naira, let them go and talk.

Buhari doesn’t want the country to collapse under his watch. He knows that if our currency collapses under his watch, history will not remember his economic advisers but will remember him. In a terrible way, of course.  He might not be eager to constitute an economic team that would be receiving salaries from government, but I know for sure that he has been having private meetings with the best economists in the land.

We don’t need another National Conference at this moment. Well, for those who have punctured my argument by saying that the conference shouldn’t be just about changing Buhari’s mind, I have a word for you. The debate on devaluation organized by TheCable newspaper is incisive.  If you listen to that debate, you would know that the problem is not an easy one. There are also numerous newspaper articles to educate you.

I even read in the papers that the President will open the conference and participate, to an EXTENT, in discussions. Hahahaha. He will leave when the conference becomes rowdy. Seriously speaking, what Buhari should do is to constantly engage Nigerians with the facts at his disposal that make him not to believe in devaluation.

Looking at the crowd of people that are likely to attend the conference, I would like to give you an advice, if you are a busy businessman, academics, economists or politician. Please, take you wife and kids out on the day of the conference, there are nice restaurants in the City. Your work might have taken a toll on your family. However, keep writing about your views on the Naira.

Dr Nwankwo lives in Benin City