Report: Lagos, Kaduna… 22 states at high risk of election manipulation

Twenty-two states are at high risk of election manipulation as Nigerians go to the polls in February and March, says a report.

The report titled “Election Manipulation Risk Index (EMRI)”, was released on Friday.

The states are Sokoto, Kwara, Oyo, Kaduna, Lagos, Osun, Ekiti, Niger, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, Adamawa, Taraba, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom, Abia, Enugu, Anambra, Imo, Rivers, Plateau and Bauchi.

EMRI said 12 states are at medium risk of election manipulation and are Zamfara, Kebbi, Ogun, Yobe, Borno, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, Kogi, Edo, Delta, and Bayelsa.

In the report, two states — Gombe and Ondo — and the FCT were categorised under the low risk of election manipulation.

The report was carried out by a group of civil society organisations (CSOs) including, Yiaga Africa, Center for Journalism Innovation and Development, Corporate Accountability and Public Participation in Africa (CAPPA), SBM Intelligence, Dataphye, International Press Centre, and Institute for Media and Society,

Others are SOS Children’s Villages, Justice, Development, Peace Movement, ElectHer, and Policy, and Legal Advocacy Centre. Partners for Electoral Reform, The Albino Foundation, The Kukah Centre, Enough is Enough Nigeria, Institute for Democracy For Electoral Assistance.

On February 25, Nigerians will head to the polls to elect a new president and members of the national assembly — senate and house of representatives.

On March 11, the governorship and state assemblies polls will take place in some states.

The CSOs said EMRI is an evidence-based tool designed to curb election manipulation, facilitate strategic election planning, and promote citizens’ oversight of the electoral process.

The report relied on observations, content analysis, and expert interviews measured on six variables.

“The central objective of the EMRI is to facilitate systematic and coherent monitoring of the insidious nature of election manipulation in the build-up to Nigeria’s 2023 general elections,” the report reads.

“The EMRI indicators reflect a comprehensive understanding of the electoral process and the interplay of actors in the election value chain.

“Though limited in scope, the EMRI can be used by election stakeholders to spotlight issues likely to impact the integrity of the 2023 general elections.

“It should be seen as a rapid scanning tool, rather than an in-depth solution for threats of election manipulation.”