Report: Why Gumi’s peace deal with bandits may fail

A report by SBM Intelligence, Nigeria’s geopolitical intelligence platform, has given reasons the peace deal initiated by Ahmad Gumi, a prominent Islamic cleric, with bandits may not materialise.

SBM, in a report, said Gumi lacks the power to keep promises made with the bandits in a bid to encourage a ceasefire, adding that the failure of the government to keep promises may have contributed to the breakdown in peace deals.

Last week, the prominent Islamic cleric met with some suspected bandits in the forests of Zamfara, appealing for calm.

He visited Tubali and Makkai forests in Shinkafi local government area of the state, and asked the federal government to grant amnesty to the bandits.

This is not the first time Gumi will embark on peace talks with bandits. In January, 500 bandits who were terrorising Zaria-Giwa road users, as well as Birnin Gwari area in Kaduna state, reportedly agreed to lay down their arms after a peace deal initiated by Gumi.

However, SBM noted that Gumi will face challenges in his move to restore peace and end the violence in the northern communities.

The report also noted that “Sheikh Gumi’s closeness to Atiku Abubakar, a key opposition figure” may also affect his ability to get the federal government to meet the demands of the armed groups.

“Despite the silence from the Federal Government over Mr Gumi’s recent actions, the domestic intelligence service is believed to have given a quiet ‘go ahead’ for the mission to proceed,” the report reads.

“The Sheikh will face challenges in his attempt to pacify armed groups and end the violence, because he lacks the powers to make or keep promises, agree or encourage ceasefire in exchange for a halt to airstrikes and other military actions or address the grievances mentioned as drivers of the lawlessness.

“Sheikh Gumi’s closeness to Atiku Abubakar, a key opposition figure, may also affect his ability to get the Federal Government to meet the demands of armed groups and Fulani communities in the region. Already, some people are asking questions about his connection with the bandits.”

The report stated that when Gumi asked Kachalla Turji, the leader of a banditry group operating along the Shinkafi-Sokoto axis, whether the earlier promises were kept by Bello Matawalle, governor of Zamfara, Turji said only one out of 10 promises was fulfilled.

“However, part of the reason for the breakdown in peace deals may also be connected to failed promises on the part of the government. At the meeting with Mr Gumi, Kachalla Turji, the leader of a banditry group operating along the Shinkafi-Sokoto axis, made reference to a string of broken promises by the government,” the report noted.

“Remember our negotiation with the Zamfara state governor. Among the ten promises I had in person with the governor, how many were fulfilled? Just one, which is a borehole. After that, no other thing was done,” the cleric was quoted to have said.

Meanwhile, not all governors in the northern region agree with the dialogue technique on combating banditry.

Nasir el-Rufai, governor of Kaduna state, had faulted Gumi’s position that the federal government should dialogue with bandits, instead of waging war against them, adding that such criminals do not deserve to be compensated.