Reunifying ECOWAS: Obasanjo and Tinubu

The decision of the government of Burkina Faso to launch its new generation biometric passport without the logo of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on September 3, 2024, may signify an irreversibility of the decision by the governments of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali on January 28, 2024, to formally withdraw their membership of ECOWAS, with preference for the newly established Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Produced by the Chinese biometric firm Emptech, the unveiling of the new passport has been followed by an announcement from Mali’s military leader Colonel Assimi Goita on September 15, 2024, that the three countries will soon unveil a new biometric passport for AES. However, the proven development benefits of multilateralism require that all efforts be made to preserve multilateral institutions such as ECOWAS, especially in developing countries. Given the urgency of the situation, the possibility of reunifying ECOWAS may just about have a silver lining, if former President Olusegun Obasanjo and President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria work in closer cooperation.

How did ECOWAS, one of the best integrated African Union (AU) recognised Regional Economic Communities (RECs) get to this undesirable situation, where some members have formally signified their intention to withdraw from ECOWAS by January 2025?

Parts of Africa have been experiencing military coups in the last few years, including Guinea, Burkina Faso and Mali. The mention of Guinea is because Obasanjo visited the country shortly after the coup there in 2021, and concluded that the usual sanctions against military regimes introduced in the early 2000’s, were not going to be effective. He had compared notes with the AU Commission Chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat, who also complained about a similar trend in Republic of Chad, his country of origin.
The military coup in Niger Republic on July 26, 2023, seems to have pushed ECOWAS to increase its response. With Tinubu barely two months into office as President of Nigeria, ECOWAS decided to make what is in hindsight, a poor tactical decision, by imposing pressing sanctions which included threats of military intervention against Niger Republic. This was during its Authority of Heads of State and Government Extraordinary Summit on the political situation in Niger on July 30, 2023, chaired by President Tinubu.

The new military regime in Niger, together with its francophone counterparts in Burkina Faso and Mali, reacted strongly to the pressures of the sanctions by establishing AES in September 2023 as a formal mutual defence pact, cascading to talks of a confederation by their foreign ministers on December 1, 2023, and then to their decision to exit ECOWAS. On January 28, 2024, the AES countries issued a joint ECOWAS withdrawal statement, that contained four major grievances against the multilateral organisation. They include deviation from the ideals of its founding fathers and Pan-Africanism due to foreign influence; failing to support AES countries in their existential fight against terrorism and insecurity; imposing illegal, illegitimate, inhumane and irresponsible sanctions in violation of its own texts; and using sanctions to further weaken populations already bruised by years of violence. In essence, the sanctions by ECOWAS at its Extraordinary Summit of July 30, 2023, had become counterproductive for multilateralism.
Given what the AES means for the sustainability and strength of ECOWAS, the regional organization decided to change track and explore cooperative diplomacy to resolve the impasse. Despite these, the Authority of Heads of State and Government of ECOWAS at its Sixty-Fifth Ordinary Session on July 7, 2024, in Abuja under the Chairmanship of President Tinubu, had in its Communique, expressed disappointment with the lack of progress in its engagements with the AES countries. The Authority further designated President Bassirou Faye of Senegal as ECOWAS Facilitator in ECOWAS engagement with the AES, in collaboration with President Faure Gnassingbé of the Togolese Republic; while also welcoming the offer of President Umaro Embaló of the Republic of Guinea Bissau to support the engagement, especially with Burkina Faso.
Given that the AES countries have gone ahead to start producing new biometric passports without ECOWAS logo, months after these official mediation efforts, it can be safe to provisionally conclude that current ECOWAS mediation efforts have not been very effective, hence the need for a revised approach- given the urgency of a few weeks left to unify ECOWAS.

So where does collaboration between Obasanjo and Tinubu come in, as a chance to reunify ECOWAS?
First, a review of the relationship between both men, and then an assessment of Obasanjo’s suitability for the difficult task. At face value, evidence shows that Obasanjo and Tinubu do not have the best of personal relationships. Obasanjo’s support for Mr. Peter Obi during the 2023 Nigeria presidential elections, seems to have strained what was at best, cordial relations between both men whose orientation on certain governance approaches diverge. Tinubu did not accord Obasanjo the usual public birthday greetings, when Obasanjo turned 87 years on March 5, as further evidence of the less than cordial relations.

But as the January 2025 exit date in accordance with the 12-month notice period under Article 91 of ECOWAS Revised Treaty of 1993, which was sent to ECOWAS in January 2024 draws near, there is the urgent need for both leaders to close ranks for the sake of African integration and multilateralism.

And what makes Obasanjo the most probable human critical success factor for reunifying ECOWAS?

As a former military general and military Head of State, before becoming civilian president, Obasanjo has the military ‘esprit de corps’ and experience that enhance relationships and communication with military regimes. He is the Co-Chair of InterAction Council of former Heads of State and Government, which provides him with extensive networks and experience in solving challenging multilateral issues. He is also experienced in multilateralism and resolving political discord, going by his leadership and membership of various United Nations, AU and ECOWAS interventions over the decades. A few contemporary examples will suffice. He led multilateral efforts that overturned the July 2003 coup in Sao Tome and Principe, and personally ensured that President Fradique de Menezes returned to office. In North Africa, he played a major role over the years in trying to mediate peace in Sudan, culminating in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005 signed in Abuja while he was President, that resolved the decades-old North-South conflict in Sudan. Furthermore, he led AU mediation efforts in Ethiopia, which led to a peace agreement between the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan rebels on November 2, 2022, after two years of civil war that led to the death of 600,000 people, with reconstruction and rehabilitation of private and public properties amounting to about $25 billion. Essentially, he is experienced in the political heavy lifting of international relations such as is required for unifying ECOWAS, and has the diplomatic background, goodwill, networks and gravitas to possibly deliver on this difficult task.

From a diplomatic perspective, Tinubu’s perceived closeness to France, occasioned by his repeated visits to Paris- the last of which was on October 14, 2024, as well as sanctions that included threats of military intervention against countries led by military officers issued during summits that he chaired, may require him to delegate further diplomatic exertions on reunifying ECOWAS.

This doesn’t mean Obasanjo can do it alone. But Tinubu as ECOWAS Chairman can reach a political détente with him for the sake of African integration, with statesmanlike conduct by both leaders allowing Tinubu delegate mediation responsibilities, that complements the efforts of the other Heads of State saddled with related responsibility since July 7, 2024. Also, Tinubu reaching such rapprochement does not undermine his political standing as Chairman of ECOWAS, rather, posterity will have it recorded that it was during his leadership that ECOWAS successfully managed some of its most trying challenges.

Multilateralism is beneficial, but demanding. The European Union (EU), which is about the most ideal multilateral institution, has had its fair share of challenges. Before modern challenges of United Kingdom’s (UK) Brexit from 2016 to 2020- which is now obviously not beneficial, there was ‘Empty Chair Crisis’ of 1965, when President Charles de Gaulle of France prevented initial efforts of the UK to join the EU, alongside other policy proposals for closer integration in the EU. A ‘Luxemborg Accord’ was reached to resolve the crisis. Ukraine’s move to expedite its EU membership since Russia invaded the country in 2022, is an example of the actual security and economic benefits that come with multilateralism.

The withdrawal of some Russian Wagner fighters from Burkina Faso in August 2024 to support Russia debilitating war against Ukraine, continuing incidents of insecurity in AES countries, and the decision of Niger Republic to rejoin the Multinational Joint Task Force of Lake Chad Basin countries in August 2024, presents a ‘diplomatic moment’ that should be maximized through experienced interventions by Obasanjo. These countries may have realized that realigning interests towards Russia and China alone, are not enough to successfully address the concerns that have made them decide to withdraw their ECOWAS membership.

For Nigeria, ECOWAS is its base and major leveraging stake in international and multilateral relations, hence its investment over the years in the organization. Some of the Nigerian-led ECOWAS interventions, including ECOMOG, ECOMIB and ECOMIG, restored political peace, security and stability to Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau and The Gambia, costing Nigeria scores of military lives and over $8 billion. Nigeria contributes over 50 percent of the funding for ECOWAS Commission and was the leading country in its establishment in the time of General Yakubu Gowon as president in 1975, alongside Togo. Such investments should not be wasted. Indeed, the organisation is so attractive, that Morocco, a North African country applied on February 24, 2017, to become a member state of ECOWAS. In addition, there is the proposed Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline that will run through Niger Republic to Europe, for Nigeria to consider. The 4,000 km pipeline project designed to ferry up to 30 billion cubic meters of gas a year from Nigeria, through Niger, to Algeria where it would connect with existing pipelines across the Mediterranean to Europe, could be affected by strained relations.

If the visionary Renascent Africa as envisaged by Nnamdi Azikiwe, Nigeria’s first President and leading Pan Africanist is to be attained and sustained, then statesmanlike concessions and détente are expected from Obasanjo and Tinubu- as Zik of Africa would expect in line with the ‘Surulere’ approach of Fabian Socialism. Also, global geopolitical trends in and around Russia and China, who the AES are aligning more with, may portend more instability and uncertainties for the rest of ECOWAS. The toppling of Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi by international forces in 2011, which was intended as a democratic strengthening exercise, ended up making large parts of the Sahel and West Africa, including Nigeria, more insecure. This increased insecurity in Nigeria has led to the country’s budget since 2013 becoming more dominated by military and defense expenditure, at the expense of social and real sector expenditure, thereby hampering development.

The potentials for more geopolitical instability in West Africa following the AES’s closer alignment with Russia and China is evidenced by the cessation of United States (U.S.) military presence from Niger Republic on September 15, 2024, following the withdrawal of U.S. forces and assets from Air Base 101 in Niamey on July 7, 2024, and Air Base 201 in Agadez on Aug. 5, 2024, as included in a May 2024 agreement. This withdrawal from Niger has however been followed by deployment of U.S. forces in Cote d’Ivoire and Republic of Benin, while they await communication from Ghana, as confirmed by Maj. Gen. Kenneth Ekman of the U.S Africa Command (AFRICOM) Department of Defense West Africa Coordination Element Lead in August 2024.

In addition to the U.S Strategy Towards sub-Saharan Africa, there is the recently launched ‘USAFRICOM Theater Strategy 2024-2033’, which is expected to be Africa Partner Led, with enablement from the U.S. At a briefing on the new military strategy by U.S. Marine Corps General Michael Langley, Commander of AFRICOM on September 12, 2024, Gen. Langley spoke about some of the geopolitical issues arising from the increasing role of Russia and China in West Africa and their destabilizing effect, as well as the need for strategic engagement by countries in managing such potential outcomes.

And there are additional global power military activities in and around West Africa that further underscores the geopolitical scenarios that should be of concern to Nigeria and ECOWAS, hence the need for unity in multilateral efforts. Between May 13 – 24, 2024, AFRICOM conducted ‘Exercise Flintlock 24’, which is the Command’s premier and largest annual special operations forces exercise, that aims to strengthen combined partner force collaboration in Africa alongside international and NATO international special operations forces. The exercise consists of forces from U.S. Special Operations Command Africa, or SocAfrica, working with about 30 nations and 1,300 personnel from five different continents, in locations hosted by Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.  AFRICOM also has the ‘Exercise Obangame Express’, a maritime exercise around West Africa’s maritime coast conducted by U.S. Naval Forces Africa, the last of which took place on May 6, 2024, in Ghana. There are in addition, the Global Peacekeeping Operations Initiative, facilitated by the United States, which aims to develop an interoperable peacekeeping capacity among African nations, the Africa Partnership Station, and the U.S. Southern European Task Force, Africa (SETAF-AF) which is a dedicated headquarters under U.S. Africa Command and U.S. Army Europe & Africa, coordinating Army activities across Africa to provide scalable crisis response options.

Without sounding alarmist, this intersection of world powers and their interests on Nigeria’s borders and concentric environment requires proactive engagement, with the minimum of an AES remaining a part of ECOWAS by an amended Treaty. This comprehensive multilateral geopolitical strategic task can be led by Obasanjo, on behalf of ECOWAS chaired by Tinubu.

For President Tinubu, it will not be a good record of history that ECOWAS broke up under his leadership, with his many decades of political experience. Given the benefits of multilateralism, as well as the diplomatic moment that exists, working closely with Olusegun Obasanjo to mediate with AES countries may provide the last feasible opportunity to salvage a reunified ECOWAS, before the 12 months exit notice under Article 91 of ECOWAS Revised Treaty of 1993 expires in January 2025. Under the Chairmanship of Tinubu, the diplomatic clock for a reunified and integrated West Africa, is ticking fast…

Uwanaka writes from African University of Science and Technology, Abuja. [email protected]