Rivers emergency rule and implications for Nigeria’s economy

Nigeria stands at a critical juncture in 2025, grappling with the dual challenges of implementing bold economic reforms and navigating a volatile political landscape.

Recent events in Rivers State, where President Tinubu declared a state of emergency and suspended Governor Fubara for six months, have raised alarming concerns about the rule of law and its implications for economic stability. These developments, coupled with ongoing structural challenges in the energy sector and the broader economy, underscore the delicate balance Nigeria must strike to achieve sustainable growth. However, the government’s heavy-handed actions in Rivers State threaten to derail this balance, casting a shadow over Nigeria’s democratic credentials and economic prospects.

The political crisis in Rivers State, culminating in President Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency and the suspension of Governor Fubara, represents a blatant overreach of executive power. This move, ostensibly aimed at restoring order, is unconstitutional and undemocratic. Suspending an elected governor without due process undermines the rule of law and sets a dangerous precedent for Nigeria’s fragile democracy.

This is not the first time Nigeria has witnessed such executive overreach. In 2013, former President Goodluck Jonathan declared a state of emergency in Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa States, citing the need to combat the Boko Haram insurgency. At the time, then-opposition leader Bola Tinubu criticised the move, arguing that it undermined democratic principles and federalism. Fast forward to 2025, and Tinubu’s actions in Rivers State mirror the very approach he once condemned. This inconsistency raises serious questions about the government’s commitment to the rule of law and democratic norms.

The Supreme Court’s rulings on former governors Ayodele Fayose and Joshua Dariye underscore the importance of due process and the rule of law. These cases demonstrated that no one is above the law, and elected officials must be held accountable through legal and constitutional means. Governor Fubara’s suspension without due process stands in stark contrast to these principles and undermines the judiciary’s role in upholding the rule of law.

Similarly, Goodluck Jonathan’s declaration of a state of emergency in 2013, while addressing security challenges, was criticised for its potential to undermine democratic governance. Tinubu’s current actions in Rivers State echo this approach, raising concerns about the consistency of Nigeria’s commitment to democratic principles.

President Tinubu’s actions in Rivers State are not just a localised issue but a symptom of a broader disregard for constitutional norms and democratic principles. By sidelining an elected official and imposing federal control, the Tinubu administration has sent a chilling message: political expediency trumps the rule of law. This erosion of democratic institutions creates uncertainty, deterring domestic and foreign investors who seek stability and predictability.

Nigeria’s economic reforms, such as the removal of fuel subsidies and efforts to diversify revenue sources, are necessary steps toward addressing long-standing distortions. However, their success hinges on political stability and adherence to the rule of law. The government’s actions in Rivers State have cast doubt on its commitment to these principles, raising concerns about the sustainability of its economic agenda.

The removal of fuel subsidies, for instance, was a bold but necessary decision. It has introduced greater transparency in energy pricing and laid the groundwork for a more sustainable economic structure. However, the reform has also caused widespread hardship, pushing millions of Nigerians into poverty. As the country enters another election cycle, there is a real risk that political pressures could lead to the reintroduction of populist policies, such as fuel subsidies, to win votes. The government’s heavy-handed approach in Rivers State only exacerbates this risk, as it signals a willingness to prioritise political control over economic stability.

The completion and operation of the Dangote Refinery have been a game-changer for Nigeria’s energy sector, easing petrol supply challenges and introducing much-needed competition into the market. However, its success is fragile and could be undermined by political instability and rule of law concerns. Moreover, the refinery’s long-term impact depends on the government’s ability to maintain a stable policy environment and address infrastructure challenges. The political overreach seen in Rivers State creates an atmosphere of uncertainty that could deter investment and hinder the refinery’s potential to drive industrial growth.

Oil theft remains a significant challenge for Nigeria’s energy sector, undermining production and depriving the government of much-needed revenue. The current administration has taken a pragmatic approach, engaging in negotiations with groups involved in oil theft and granting pipeline protection contracts to some of them. While this has helped stabilise production, it is not a long-term solution.

Addressing the root causes of oil theft, such as poverty and unemployment in the Niger Delta, requires sustained investment in infrastructure and social programmes. However, these efforts are hampered by weak institutions and political instability. The government’s actions in Rivers State, which prioritise political control over governance, further erode public trust and undermine efforts to tackle these structural challenges.

Similarly, the government’s push for revenue diversification through tax reforms faces significant hurdles. Opposition from politicians and a lack of public trust in the government’s ability to manage resources effectively threaten to derail these efforts. The suspension of Governor Fubara, seen by many as politically motivated, only deepens this mistrust and weakens the government’s credibility.

Global geopolitical shifts also influence Nigeria’s economic stability. European nations are reevaluating their relationships with African countries, adopting a more passive-aggressive diplomatic approach. Meanwhile, changes in U.S. energy policy and global oil dynamics directly impact Nigeria’s economy. However, internal challenges compromise the country’s ability to navigate these external pressures.

Political instability, weak institutions, and concerns about the rule of law create an environment of uncertainty that deters investment and undermines economic growth. The government’s actions in Rivers State, which undermine democratic norms and the rule of law, only exacerbate these challenges.

The Rivers crisis and Governor Fubara’s suspension are not just political missteps but a direct assault on Nigeria’s democratic institutions. The government’s heavy-handed approach undermines the rule of law, erodes public trust, and creates an environment of uncertainty that threatens economic stability.

To achieve sustainable development, Nigeria must prioritise the rule of law, strengthen its institutions, and foster a culture of accountability and transparency. Political leaders must resist the temptation to undermine democratic norms for short-term gains, as such actions erode public trust and deter investment.

At the same time, the government must maintain its commitment to economic reforms and address the root causes of poverty, unemployment, and insecurity. By upholding the rule of law and maintaining a stable policy environment, Nigeria can unlock its vast potential and emerge stronger and more resilient in the years to come.

The road ahead is fraught with challenges, but with the right strategies and leadership, Nigeria can overcome these obstacles and seize the opportunities before it. Our choices today will determine whether we build a prosperous and stable future or succumb to the forces that threaten to hold us back. The government’s actions in Rivers State are a stark reminder of what is at stake: political power and the foundations of Nigeria’s democracy and economic stability.

In conclusion, Nigeria’s path to economic stability and sustainable growth is inextricably linked to its adherence to the rule of law and democratic governance. The government’s actions in Rivers State serve as a stark reminder of what is at stake: not just political power, but the very foundations of Nigeria’s democracy and economic stability.

Nwanze is a partner at SBM Intelligence.