Run, Jonathan, run

A cherished friend of mine posted about his conviction that former President Goodluck Jonathan was too smart to succumb to current agitations for him to contest in the 2023 elections during the week. I had similar thoughts until reports that agitators stormed his Abuja office to prevail on him to contest hit the waves last week. That was an aurora moment!

Anyone who understands Nigerian politics and its players would immediately know that protests like the one staged last Thursday are almost always inspired by the very people they are meant to persuade or their proxies. There are only very few, if any, altruistic political protests of such magnitude in Nigeria. Our politicians are unbridled about their penchant for playing on the intelligence of Nigerians. In other words, there is a chance that the former President or someone close to him incentivised this widely reported march.

But even if the protesters were on a self-appointed mission, Jonathan’s reaction overrode any doubt as to whether he would contemplate a return to the Presidential Villa. That Jonathan did not immediately discourage these protesters and those who may be planning such in the future is an indication that smartness, if that was one of the attributes of the former President, was, after all, not all that guides the decisions of Nigerian politicians. 

Power and its acquisition are lucrative ventures in today’s Nigeria.  People get into office, and all their burdens are offloaded and dumped on the country; the nation’s commonwealth becomes theirs to appropriate as they wish, as they struggle to accumulate enough wealth to keep their generations out of the pervasive poverty belt. With such consideration, discretion, smartness or whatever you call it, takes the back seat.

In Jonathan’s case, there might be more compelling reasons to consider being on the ballot again. From what the former President and his associates say, he was taking Nigeria somewhere as President; his administration had plans for which it was making gradual progress, but he was misunderstood. Now that people are calling him to run, winning the election would present him the opportunity to complete the “good work” he started, correct whatever mistakes he made, and put Nigeria on the right footing. It is only fair to allow every man who considers himself to have been misunderstood and vilified out of office such allowance.

There is also the temptation arising from personal ambition. He may justifiably desire to make history, possibly as one of the longest-serving Nigerian leaders or the only one who was ridiculed out of office but persuaded to come back by the same people who orchestrated his removal. Doesn’t that sound grand?

Jonathan might want to justify his aspiration with the satisfaction of having the last laugh. Like the biblical Jabez, who was once despised by his people, but was later invited to rescue his community, there is a sense of satisfaction that every man, blessed with an opportunity for a rebound derives from such events. You know that rejected stone becoming the chief cornerstone kind of thing.

However, it is also true that the real man in a human being should show up in such moments of temptation. Being a man is not about dithering to every shade of opinion and temptation, including the delight of getting back at your erstwhile adversaries. It is, in fact, nobler to walk away from opportunities to get back at those who may have wronged you in the past, especially if time and events have vindicated you as it has Jonathan. Today, some of those who worked against him in the past have apologised and become his friends. That, in my opinion, is the highest level of vindication a man could ever hope for.

Hopefully, Jonathan is not beginning to develop that messianic complex, making him genuinely see himself as the only one who can save Nigeria. If he feels like a divine problem solver, then, we should service him to notice that Nigeria and Nigerians are not the same as when he became President in 2010. This country and her people have become more complex, more disenchanted, and impatient with politicians and the former President’s tiptoe attitude to governance would lead to more ridicule than he ever saw.

It would also be cofounding that Jonathan has refused to school himself in the deception that Nigerian politics is despite all his years in politics. Does he think these people love him? 

There have been insinuations that, given the current animosity as to which of the north or the south should have a shot at the Presidency in 2023, some of those inviting Jonathan have identified him as the most viable compromise candidate. The conjecture is that because he is the only southerner legally estopped from being in office for more than one term, northern politicians will present a legitimate argument for the reversal of the Presidency to the north in 2027. So, this is all about using him to achieve an end.

 Even if this wasn’t the intention of his promoters, that would be the reality after a possible four-year tenure by Jonathan. Unfortunately, this situation would create more problems than it can ever solve Leaders of the south are sure to insist on a two-term tenure with or without Jonathan. The man who wanted to help Nigeria would only then discover that he had driven it into more confusion.

What all of this says to us, however, is that Nigerian politicians are more interested in their selfish interests than in the country’s development. If these men were thinking about Nigeria and its people, the consensus for rescuing Nigeria out of its current predicament would be more competence-based than anything else.

That makes you wonder why anyone of Jonathan’s status would imagine that they must be in power to help Nigeria. Generally regarded as a gentleman than a desperate politician, Jonathan stands in a unique position to leave his name in gold out of government. His concession of the 2015 elections and refusal to tread the path of endless litigation of politicians has put him in a place of global importance from where he could galvanise international attention to Nigeria’s problem.

Starting with the current state of democracy (where politicians only seek platforms to exploit rather than principled political parties) to his one-time pet project of providing western education for all Nigerian children, especially those in the north, there are numerous ways Jonathan can remain an eternal Nigerian hero. While Jonathan does not need political power to attain these, he has all the influence he needs to create this change. 

More than all of this, has the former President considered the consequences of seeking the tickets of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and failing at it?

There have been suggestions that President Muhammadu Buhari is disposed to having him return to the office, but that is a doubtful prospect. Buhari has never proved to be an interventionist leader and sticking his head out for Jonathan is very difficult to imagine. Assuming Buhari, however, supports Jonathan’s candidacy and hands over the APC ticket to him, who says Nigerians would vote the person Buhari (who is now seen by most people as an unmitigated disappointment), endorses as their next President. How would Jonathan feel having the APC ticket but losing at the general elections? Wouldn’t that be the most ignominious end to an otherwise glorious political career?

And when that eventually happens- as it is bound to, let the former President not say that he suffered all that as a sacrifice for Nigeria. It would only be a gamble boosted by his ego and inability to discern, which is why he should flee every temptation now in his way. 

Adedokun can be reached via Twitter@niranadedokun