‘Run-off highly unlikely’ — poll predicts victory for Atiku

A survey by Political Africa Initiative (POLAF), a not-for-profit firm, and BusinessDay, a newspaper organisation, has projected Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as the winner of the presidential poll. 

In the report published on Monday, the organisations said the survey was conducted via telephone interview with 3,123,660 randomly sampled respondents registered to vote in the election, and spread across 165 LGAs in 20 states from the six geopolitical zones.

According to the report, three states were selected per geo-political zone “with an extra state selected from the south-south and south-west”, including the federal capital territory (FCT).

The survey predicted that Abubakar will claim more than 25 percent of votes in six geo-political zones.

“The poll reveals a close race amongst the PDP (38%), APC (29%) and LP (27%) while the NNPP is a distant 5%. The survey shows the PDP and APC comfortably getting the constitutionally required spread (minimum 25% across 24 States + FCT), while both LP and NNPP struggle,” the report reads.

“APC comfortably above 25% in 3 geo-political zones (GPZs) and just about in 1 other // LP comfortably above in 3 geo-political zones (GPZs) and just about in 1 // PDP comfortably above 25% in all 6 geo-political zones (GPZs).”

“The 4Ks (Kano, Kaduna, Katsina and Kebbi) alone have a voting strength of 15,805,338 which dwarfs the entire SE region with 10,907,606 votes (of which PDP/AA if not winning particular areas, would be alternate to LP/PO, achieving the required 25% in all states of the SE, and probably winning some.

“The SW GPZ (Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Ekiti) with 17,958,966 votes has the second highest voting strength nationwide and is considered a stronghold of APC/BAT. But, the PDP has 2 States there and is popular in others, with the exception of Lagos where the contest is between the APC and LP.

“11 states in the NC GPZ, are governed by the APC. The polls not only show that all three major contenders APC/BAT, LP/PO and PDP/AA will attain the required 25% but goes to prove that States will be won by any of the contenders.

“Religious and ethnic biases which have come to the fore will play a major factor in the NC GPZ. Religious and ethnic considerations will also be major influencers in the SS and SE GPZs.

“In the SS and SE GPZs, the APC/BAT is extremely unpopular and incapable of the required 25% across both zones, losing voting strength as well. However, in Delta, Edo and Imo, the required 25% is attainable.

“With governance in the NE-GPZ split between the APC/BAT (Borno/Gombe/Yobe) and PDP/AA (Adamawa/Bauchi/Taraba), elections here will be keenly contested with both obtaining the required 25% and more in some cases. The polls show that the LP/PO CANNOT achieve 25% across all six states, hence the reason why obtaining 25% across 24 States + FCT is unrealistic.

“In this election as against the usual obtained, a candidate will win without necessarily winning any of the two most populous States of Kano and Lagos. From the survey, APC and LP will split votes in Lagos (with the PDP not achieving the required 25%).

“In Kano, it’s a contest between the NNPP, PDP and APC, in that order, while additional votes can be obtained from the remainder of NW States, which would make the difference in the polls.”

The PDP is also projected to obtain the required 25 percent in over 30 states and the FCT, followed closely by the APC.

The report added that a runoff is “highly unlikely” in the presidential election.