Study: COVID deaths estimated at over 18m — three times more than official figure

In a new study, researchers have estimated that between 2020 and 2021, there have been over 18 million deaths from COVID worldwide – three times more than the figure reported by official data.

The study, published on Thursday, was carried out by the excess mortality team at the Washington University.

The researchers analysed all-cause mortality in 191 countries and territories, using weekly or monthly reported data when available, and creating models to estimate for others.

They said although reported COVID deaths between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2021, totalled 5·94 million worldwide, they “estimate that 18·2 million people died worldwide because of the pandemic over that period”.

According to the researchers, the overall global rate calculated is 120 deaths per 100,000 people and excess mortality rate exceeded 300 deaths per 100,000 of the population in 21 countries.

They also found that the highest numbers of cumulative excess deaths due to COVID were estimated in India, the United States, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia and Pakistan.

“The full impact of the pandemic has been much greater than what is indicated by reported deaths due to COVID-19 alone. Strengthening death registration systems around the world, long understood to be crucial to global public health strategy, is necessary for improved monitoring of this pandemic and future pandemics,” the researchers noted.

Haidong Wang, lead author of the study, said: “Understanding the true death toll from the pandemic is vital for effective public health decision-making.

“Studies from several countries, including Sweden and the Netherlands, suggest COVID-19 was the direct cause of most excess deaths, but we currently don’t have enough evidence for most locations,” Wang added.

“Further research will help to reveal how many deaths were caused directly by COVID-19, and how many occurred as an indirect result of the pandemic.”