Super Falcons v USA: 5 possible scenarios

Analysing Nigerian football is often a study in permutation and combination.

In English:

We use the words “combination” and “permutation” loosely, without thinking if the order of things is important.

In Mathematics:

We use more accurate language. If the order doesn’t matter, it is a Combination. If the order does matter, it is a Permutation.

In Nigerian football:

A Permutation is an ordered and disordered Combination that must provide a light at the end of the tunnel!

So, we are back to it as the Super Falcons hope to book a ticket to the knockout stages of the FIFA Women’s World Cup.

In the new 24-team format for this edition, four best losers in the six groups will join the top two teams in the round-of-16.

The table of teams looking to make the knockout stage through the “back door” has the Netherlands, Cameroon, France, and Thailand in the top four after Monday’s game.

But Nigeria can gatecrash the party and spoil their fun and qualify for the next round.

Here are the five possible scenarios the Falcons are faced with:

If Falcons beat USA:

They will come third in the group, regardless of the outcome of the Sweden v Australia match – though its better Australia beat the Swedes. But that doesn’t automatically qualify Nigeria for the next round.

Spain, South Korea and Mexico MUST lose or draw their last games. If they win it MUST be by a slim margin (1-0) but then, the Falcons MUST beat USA by three clear goals: 3-0, 4-1, 5-2 etc!

With the result in the bag – 3-0, 4-1 – they will then play Germany in Ottawa on June 20 or Canada in Vancouver on June 21.

If Falcons win the group:

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm…an interesting scenario!

Falcons can top the group if they beat USA by four clear goals – 4-0, 5-1, 6-2 etc – but then Australia and Sweden’s game must end in a draw or the Aussies win by a goal margin. Sweden must lose!

So, if Falcons manage to top the group, they will play their round-of-16 game in Edmonton on June 22, against a third-place finisher from Group B, E or F.

If Falcons come second in the group:

If Falcons beat USA by four clear goals and either of Australia and Sweden win their game, then Falcons will play Brazil in Moncton on June 21 in the round-o-16.

If the USA beat Falcons:

That’s goodbye to Canada!

If Falcons draw with USA:

That’s also goodbye to Canada!

The first, and best, scenario is for the team to beat USA, by any margin, and free themselves and Nigerians from this study in permutation and combination.

But thank God it’s not a study in scarlet.

You wouldn’t want to ask Sherlock Holmes.