TheCable

Times were when former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar was considered a political wizard ─ the indomitable strategist who knows how to win when it matters the most. The victory of President Olusegun Obasanjo in the 1999 general was attributed, in the main, to the political prowess of Atiku and he immediately looked like a president in waiting. In 2003, he played this card so well that Obasanjo reportedly had to go and beg him for his support to, first, get re-nominated by the PDP and, second, be re-elected.

But maybe Atiku is a myth, after all. Last Sunday, he could not get his preferred candidate to win the governorship ticket of his party, APC, in his home state, Adamawa. Senator Bindo Jibrilla polled 2,718 votes to beat Atiku’s anointed candidate, Ibrahim Mijinyawa, who got 2,268 votes.  Jibrilla will now fly APC’s flag against PDP’s Umaru Fintiri in the October 11 poll.

The outcome of the primary became more intriguing because another of Atiku’s associates, Boss Mustapha, came third with 515 votes. If Mustapha had joined forces with Mijinyawa, Jibrilla would not have won the ticket. Ibrahim would have scored, theoretically, 2,783 votes. Why did two of Atiku’s associates fail to work together? Couldn’t Atiku, a known consensus-builder, bring both of them to the table?

It is sparse consolation that Atiku bought the nomination forms for four of the eventual contenders, and you wonder what sort of political strategist would willingly dissipate votes in different directions.

Although Atiku promptly accepted defeat and said he was a democrat who would abide by the outcome of the primary, there are now bigger question marks over his presidential ambition. If he is not fully in charge of the party structure in his own state, how does he hope to pick the presidential ticket which will be decided by party members across the federation?

To be fair to Atiku, though, he is a late comer to APC and certain structures were already formed before he came on board early this year, having been in and out of the PDP since 2006 in furtherance of his presidential bid. Former governor Murtala Nyako, whose impeachment paved the way for this by-election, was fully in charge of the APC machinery in the state before his ouster from government house in July.

But then, if the structures had already been formed, Atiku’s ambition is also in a delicate mode since it is these structures that will deliver the ticket to the eventual candidate. He is going to come head-to-head with Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, and Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of Kano in the race for the APC presidential ticket. In theory, it is going to be an uphill task for the former vice-president whose power seems to have been on the wane since he fell out with Obasanjo in 2003.

He ran in the 2007 presidential race and came a distant third, winning only in Lagos State, the home of his adopted party, Action Congress which has now fused into APC. In 2010, he returned to the PDP in pursuit of his presidential ambition, and having succeeded in emerging the “northern consensus candidate”, he was roundly defeated by President Goodluck Jonathan at the PDP convention, where delegates from Adamawa did not even vote for Atiku. In the 36 states and FCT, only Kano, Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara and Niger delegates preferred him to Jonathan.

There are several hurdles awaiting Atiku in the APC presidential primary, and losing the chance to help his man become the party’s governorship candidate in Adamawa is one set-back he does not need now.