The dynamics of Ondo politics

BY IGWE UDE-UMANTA

Ondo State experienced a storm. The storm was fiercely against Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa. Several dynamics played out. The outcome of the recently concluded gubernatorial primaries of the All Progressive Congress (APC) in the state indicates that the storm is over. Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa was the beneficiary of the primaries of the APC, which, without sentiments, is the party to beat in the forthcoming governorship election of the state.

Contrary to what many “professional politicians” in the state thought, Aiyedatiwa was tactical in his approach. Maybe his name, Aiyedatiwa (the world has become ours), worked for him. The margin of victory for Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa is indicative. It was massive. He polled 48,569 votes, while his closest challenger, Mayowa Akinfolarin, polled 15,343. Olushola Oke came a distant third with 14,915 votes. When one combines the votes of Mayowa Akinfolarin and Olushola Oke, it amounts to 30,258. The difference is 18,313 votes.

Again, the interesting part is that the cumulative votes for the other aspirants amounted to 16,351. The implication is that Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa came prepared and trounced all other opponents—anyone who refers to the governor as a political lightweight needs a rethink.

Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa was underrated, oppressed and treated with some contempt by a section of the APC elite in the state. This is because he was considered a political neophyte introduced by the late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu. It was worsened by Akeredolu’s prophetic endorsement of him on their day of inauguration in 2021 as his successor.

He faced many battles, and the fact that 17 aspirants opposed him in the APC primaries shows that they are not awed by his political capital as an incumbent governor. As it is, Governor Aiyedatiwa has crossed his most significant obstacles because it appeared that he had more hurdles in securing the APC ticket than in winning the main election. But again, this throws up more intriguing dynamics because securing a ticket against political bigwigs like Chief Olushola Oke, Honourables Mayowa Akinfolarin, Adewale Akinterinwa, Isaac Kekemeke, Senator Jimoh Ibrahim and a host of others, who are still protesting, present some likely landmines, yet, lessons for students of politics.

Two likely scenarios will play out. There would have been a third, but the protesting APC aspirants have no common goal, except their opposition to Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa. The third scenario would have been an alignment by the aggrieved aspirants against the governor. But it cannot happen, given the polarisation of ambitions; an albatross that is common in the political landscape in Nigeria.

The opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is not in good stead to challenge the APC in the state because the primaries of the People Democratic Party (PDP), where there are also strong aspirants like Adeolu Akinwumi, Olushola Ebiseni, Bamidele Akingboye and Agboola Ajayi, is also likely to produce discontent.

This may also create a situation where there would be movements in and out of both parties. Therefore, the most likely scenario is that those who are very aggrieved in the APC will work with the PDP, which is the only visible party but cannot match the APC by its present standing. The PDP is no longer a credible opposition party. The raging Labour Party has displaced it at the national level, and though it is the main opposition party in Ondo, it has no teeth to bite. I stand to be corrected.

The second scenario is in-house reconciliation in the APC and acceptance of compromises, which is the most profitable, especially as President Bola Tinubu is not likely to suffer any defeat in his geopolitical zone while holding sway as president. He is too intelligent to allow Ondo or any other state to slip from his grip. The president knows the consequences of such an action.
Whatever these dynamics throw up, the odds favour the once “naive political neophyte, ” who appears to be divinely helped.

Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa operates smoothly and appears to have endeared himself to the electorate beyond the narratives of his detractors and oppressors. His choice of deputy governor is also a masterstroke. Olayide Owolabi Adelami, former deputy clerk to the national assembly, from the same Owo local government as the deceased governor, Akeredolu.

Those who understand Ondo politics will agree that Owo plays a crucial role in election outcomes. Furthermore, an interaction with Ondo citizens who have no political attachments shows the masses’ support for the governor on a nonpartisan level. Most of this support is based on the sentiment that he was oppressed and disrespected.

For others, he carries almost no political baggage. He will create opportunities for political access for those who wish to climb in the APC and those who want to join the ruling party from the opposition. I have consistently recognised the power of incumbency in Nigerian politics. It confers an advantage that can’t be explained. It happens like magic.

As tricky as these dynamics are, Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa will likely emerge victorious at the polls. The argument by elites of Ondo South that his election would shorten their spell in power is a topic for another day. What is paramount is winning the election. As we await the outcome of the primaries of other political parties, I believe the leadership of the APC in Ondo state would reflect on the issues on the ground and agree that the emergence of Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa as its gubernatorial candidate remains the only option to retain power.

Consequently, it would work assiduously to keep its house in order and united. The weeks and months ahead in the buildup to the elections in Ondo state would be intriguing.

Ude-Umanta is a public affairs analyst and can be reached at [email protected].