THE INSIDER: Buhari did NOT direct NBS to change unemployment figures

Senior government officials have told TheCable that President Muhammadu Buhari did not direct Yemi Kale, the statistician general, to alter the figures of unemployment in Nigeria.

The officials voiced their surprise at the claim made by Garba Shehu, presidential spokesman, that Buhari has asked Kale “to change the high unemployment statistics and reflect the rising rate of employment in the agriculture sector”.

The latest figures were released on Wednesday, showing that Nigeria’s unemployment numbers rose from 17.6 million to 20.9 million in nine months.

Speaking off the record with TheCable, three ministers who were at the meeting where Kale briefed the federal executive council (FEC) said the president did not utter a word after the presentation.

One minister told TheCable: “Senator Udoma Udo Udoma, the minister of budget and planning, was presenting his quarterly report on the performance of the budget. Thereafter, he invited Yemi to present the figures. After Yemi spoke, some of the ministers said it was best for him to release the unemployment figures and explain them within the context that Nigerians can fully understand. That was it. The president did not say one word to Yemi.

“We were shocked to see Shehu on Channels TV quoting what the president did not say and creating the impression that President Buhari is trying to teach the National Bureau of Statistics their job. By law, he cannot do that.

“No one told Dr. Kale to change or doctor data. Those who made input just said he should explain the methodology so that public will understand. It is either Shehu did not understand what happened or he was being mischievous.”

METHODOLOGY

Another minister, who spoke extensively with TheCable, said Shehu “made up the story”.

“Udo Udoma usually briefs FEC on the state of the economy every quarter. It’s routine. Dr. Kale attended, as he normally does, to answer any questions on the data. All these are routine. Sometimes, FEC members have questions and other times they don’t,” the minister said.

“This time, some ministers asked questions about the job loss story as being peddled by the PDP. Yemi said NBS did not do any job loss report, and that unemployment is different from job loss. He explained and defended the NBS methodology, which he described as the international best practice.

“He explained that the report prepared by NBS was about 70 pages and it is not unusual for people to pick and choose what to highlight for whatever reason. The SG said the report has many positive signs, but it is not in his place to point them out as he is supposed to be neutral and independent.

“He said the report did show net increase in employment of about 1.6 million persons since 2015 but also showed higher unemployment, which was mostly due to new entrants in the labour market — about 4 million a year and about 16 million since the administration came into office. The problem, he said, was the inflow into the jobs market, not job loss per se. He also told us that part-time or underemployment actually rose by 4 million net and this is mostly agricultural work. The drop in full-time jobs, mostly white color, pulled down overall employed to 1.6 million net.”

DOUBLE COUNTING

Kale was then asked why the claim by the Rice Farmers Association of Nigeria (RFAN) that 12 million jobs had been created in agriculture under PBuhari was not reflected in the NBS report.

He reportedly said the report did show the impact of agriculture, although he also said the 12 million job claim “was not realistic”.

A senior presidency official, who was at the briefing, said Kale told FEC that the RFAN figures included a lot of double counting and duplication.

“He said although rice farmers said they have 12.2 million members, that does not mean 12.2 million farmers. They cut across various professions. RFAN lists its members as those in milling, storage and management, trading and marketing, export, research, training and allied businesses.

“Most are not even farmers. He also pointed out the fact that it is wrong to say they have 12 million new farmers since the association was not formed today. He even used himself as an example of someone who is also a farmer, just like other members of the NBS staff. Therefore, it would amount to double counting to list them as employed by NBS and still count them separately as farmers. They are the same individuals. If we count like that, we would end up with an employment figure that is more than the population of Africa.”

NBS, Kale told FEC, removes such duplication, which inevitably reduces the numbers.

“He said if  a cassava farmer switches to rice because it’s more beneficial, that would not affect NBS data because the farmer already had a job and only switched. If a banker resigns and goes into rice farming, it has no impact on unemployment because he was already captured as employed, just that he changed jobs,” the official said.

CHEERFUL NEWS

The cheerful news, according one of the ministers, was that it was clear Nigeria was making progress in agriculture.

“He told us that there was definitely improvement in agric jobs and well-being. Katsina, Kebbi, Zamfara and Niger, where there is a lot of intervention in agriculture, have very low unemployment rates compared to Rivers and co, which are low on intervention,” the minister said.

He said Kale’s explanations were well received by the ministers and other members of FEC.

“Some of us suggested that he should address a press conference to correct the wrong impression about job losses being created by the PDP, but Udoma intervened and said NBS is independent and does not take instruction from political authorities. He advised us that we should be the ones to address the press, not Dr. Kale,” he said.

“President Buhari did not utter one word throughout, and it is amazing that Garba Shehu went on air to say what he said. It appears he is trying too hard to please Buhari, to show that he has completely switched loyalty from Atiku. But he can just stick to the facts.”

Shehu refused to comment when contacted by TheCable.