The likely political headwinds to 2023

But for the singular act of President Goodluck Jonathan conceding defeat at the 2015 presidential elections, Nigeria would have been consumed by a conflagration of unimaginable proportions. Riding on that election all the combustible issues that have plagued Nigeria-mainly ethnicity and religious dichotomies-had sharpened to the point where only a tiny spark was needed to set the whole country on the path of irredeemable disintegration.

Four years after that epochal moment which most Nigerians thought appropriate lessons had been learnt to prevent recourse to that hair raising situation, seemed to have been a forlorn hope. With the on-going developments among the various political interest groups under President Buhari, we can only say with a heavy dose of schadenfreude that the contentious issues in the Nigerian polity have only receded into hibernation where they are acquiring more threatening dimensions to the country.

On this score two factors provide the impetus for the slow burning political manoeuvres now evident in the polity; that there will be a vacancy in Aso Villa following the completion of president Buhari’s two terms in 2023 and the wide expectation that it will be the turn of a southerner to succeed him.

Embedded in these two factors are potential political headwinds which requires us to examine critically in order to alert the nation of the dangers they carry and how to avert them

First off let us consider the issue of zoning the presidency to the south after the tenure of president Buhari. Some have questioned why in a democracy which we are practising, the people are not allowed to vote whom they want but to have that decision force-fed to them through zoning of offices. The counter argument to that is as a fragile country with so many fractious ethnic groups, the most overriding consideration will have to be for everyone to have a sense of belonging. We already have this principle embedded in the consideration forfederal character in public appointments and in the need to reflect the special needs of disadvantaged areas in national development. By this principle it will only be fair and in the interest of equity and justice that we extend it to the political arena failing which we will be setting the stage for more ominous developments in our polity.

Going by this principle and consideration, of the three southern geopolitical zones the southwest ticks all the boxes in which among them should take the shot.

The south-south not too long ago gave us Goodluck Jonathan. The Southeast which really should be the one to be considered however is a victim of its own politics. As the southeast dithers from restructuring, referendum and outright secession from Nigeria it sends signals of alarm to the rest of the country that it cannot be trusted with power at the very helm of the country. In OwelleRochasOkorocha (whose non-partisan qualities I knew as a fellow Jos brought up), Orji UzorKalu and a host of others, the southeast has a number of persons who can provide the leadership Nigeria needs from the zone. But these individuals it must be said are but against the tide of opinion in the southeast which believes that the presidency should either be conceded to it not on the basis of political engagement with other zones in the country, but on account of perceived wrongs in our past history.

The southwest on the contrary had chosen the path of strategic engagement with other zones in the country. Although the southwest has misgivings about how things are with the structure of the country, it has tended to be clear and unambiguous in its preference for constructive dialogue in resolving these issues. For a fragile country like Nigeria trying to build cohesion among its fractious entities, this approach by the southwest is less alarming and alarming which makes the zone a better fit to be considered for the presidency after president Buhari

But what about the north? In many ways the 2023 elections will be a referendum on the north and its political sagacity. Will the north willingly and faithfully go along with the power shift clamour to the south? This question is very important because the north with its well-oiled political structure and connections as well millionaire votes during national elections has the upper hand in determining whether the whole  power shift arrangement to the south succeeds or not. Apropos of this question opinions in the north are sharply divided. There are those in the north who genuinely believe like others in the south that the time has come to discard issues like zoning. Then there are those who believe that the north should stick to its guns and not go along with the arrangement. Those in this category of thinking are split into two; those who unabashedly believe the north should no further succumb to ‘’political blackmail’’ from the south (as in June 12 from the southwest, resource control from the south-south and Biafra from the southeast) and those who are inclined to go along with this thinking but for reasons of political correctness prefer to hide dubiously behind the argument on upholding the tenets of democracy.

The part of the north where these arguments is raging most is unsurprisingly the northwest zone. It is the zone with the largest voting population. With the exception of the minority ethnic groups of southern Kaduna, it is also the zone in the north with a near homogenous cultural and religious identity among the seven states that constitute it. From the reading of the political tea leaves the northwest stands to lose some of its political mileage should power shifts to the south. It will be worse if a south-westernMuslim takes the ticket and is necessarily compelled to take his running mate from the minority Christian ethnic group from either the north central or north east zones.

It is not surprising that there are some sleight of hand moves to pull out from the ruling party en masse at some point and move to a new party which is being constructed under the radar at the moment. There is also the option by the northwest to mobilize its millionaire votes to support a political party that will be persuaded to field a north westerner as its presidential candidate in 2023.

But these political manoeuvres will most certainly have a blowback. There is no outstanding political figure in the northwest zone outside of president Buhari that can command the kind of political support to be rallying point for such political action platform.  There is also the distinct possibility that the five other zones in the country will close ranks and defeat the northwest candidate as a political reaction to that.

We can also expect that the extreme reaction of the southwest to this will be to view it as another June 12 caper which will likely instigate and concretise calls for secession of that and other zones from the country. And with the deepening fractures as well as the already overstretched security operations in the country this may most certainly be the tipping point for the predicted disintegration of Nigeria as a country.

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