The lucky man of Ondo state

The battle of the Ondo state Gubernatorial election 2024 has been won and lost, with Lucky Orimisan Aiyedatiwa emerging as the new Governor-elect: 1. 757 million eligible voters, 85.6% PVC collection, 22, 239 security officers deployed to enforce security, low voter turn-out, 17 candidates slugging it out in 18 Local Government areas, 3, 933 polling units, with over 1,000 election monitors and observers on active duty in all the LGAs. In the end it was actually a two-horse race between two former Deputy Governors: Agboola Ajayi of the Peoples Democratic Party who had previously served as Deputy to the late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu, SAN (Aketi) – 2017– 2020 before the trailer went between them and Lucky Aiyedatiwa who replaced Ajayi in 2021, and remained Deputy Governor till Aketi’s death in 2023.

Aiyedatiwa is now serving out the remainder of Aketi’s term till February 2025 as the Constitution clearly states. When the votes were tallied and announced on Sunday, November 17, 2024, Aiyedatiwa secured an emphatic victory, indeed a landslide victory, beating his rivals 18-0, securing 366, 781 votes to beat Agboola Ajayi of the PDP who got 117, 845 votes. Nejo Adeyemi, the candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) won 4, 138 votes. Dr. Abbas Mimiko of the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) got a total of 2, 692 votes, and the Labour Party (LP) – 1, 162 votes. The margin of victory for Aiyedatiwa was so wide and comfortable that the complaint by the state Chairman of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Mr. Gbenga Akinbuli who described the election as “a show of shame” sounds like a mere garage whistle. 

Names are very important to Africans and as such local naming systems are supposed to serve as referents for the circumstances of birth and the parents’ wish for the child’s future. In the South South of Nigeria, a child born when an election was held in the community could go through life named Election, or FEDECO, or Constitution. There are such names as Guinness, Heineken, Annulment, Government, Senate, Professor, Chairman, Census, Praise, Alleluia, Promise: names which may seem strange at first but hold significant meanings for the bearer. Some other names in other parts of the country are literally prayers in motion: Beauty, Gloria, Endurance and so it is with the newly-elected Governor of Ondo State. Lucky: he is indeed lucky. It is not easy to win an election in any part of Africa- whatever all the key factors in any election may be, the eventual winner needs a strong element of luck.  Orimisan – My head has favoured me. Truly, the man’s head has brought him favour and grace. When his former principal, Akeredolu was ill, and was in and out of hospital, he was accused of plotting to take over, even when the 1999 Constitution is very clear about what happens when a Governor or President is permanently incapacitated or dies. No man should rejoice over the death of another, for death is the debt that all men would pay. The concept of “Ori” or “chi” as the Igbos refer to it is a major teleological category in African knowledge. It is indeed apt to say that “Ori” has brought the Governor of Ondo state to a place of grace and honour. Aiyedatiwa: “The world is now ours.” How prophetic: the world is now Aiyedatiwa’s in Ondo State. He has now won the Gubernatorial election on his own steam. The nomination battle, the road to this moment was tough and fiercely contested, but the election last Saturday appeared to be much easier.

The point must be made that names do not on their own bring automatic success. Glory is something that must be actively worked for, happiness must be pursued with single-minded devotion, nothing in life comes on a platter of gold.  I recall the case of one man who was once Governor in one of our states. He also bears the name Lucky. By the time he completed his first term in office, his performance was so poor, the opposition argued that the state did not deserve any further affliction. Many would recall that this particular Governor’s wealthy and influential father was said to have waded in, and this may be apocryphal, but word soon went round that his father pointed out to the electorate that when a child fails, the simple thing is to allow him or her to repeat the class, so that he/she can pass the examination at second try. Wily, foxy, old man’s wisdom. This may not have influenced the votes one way or the other, but the son was allowed to repeat the class. He actually got a second term in office! I leave the rest of the story to the people of the affected state who are old enough to remember.  

Luck and other factors may have brought Aiyedatiwa this far, but he would not be remembered for being merely lucky. He was bound to win the election anyway, having cleared the hurdle of winning the APC nomination ticket. His closest rival, Agboola Ajayi of the PDP could not have defeated him at the polls. Both of them are from Ondo South Senatorial district. It makes simple sense to vote massively for their son who is already an Acting Governor than to vote for an Ajayi who is still aspiring to get closer to the seat. Besides, the PDP is failing as an opposition party not just in Ondo State but also at the federal level. Before 2027, the PDP would have been so weakened by “enemies within” and the mischief of the ruling party. Aiyedatiwa also had the factor of incumbency in his favour. He also had federal might on his side. Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, the National Chairman of the APC was so elated, he openly boasted in Akure on Sunday that his party’s next target is to take over the South-West geo-political zone politically, meaning the APC is determined to win the next gubernatorial elections in Osun and Oyo in 2026, having consolidated its hold on Edo and Ondo states in 2024. Without a strong, resilient and strategic opposition, the APC may well be on its way to turning Nigeria into a one-party state or something close to it. This is one obvious reason the opposition parties must wake up to their responsibilities.

Aiyedatiwa has an obligation to justify the mandate that the people of Ondo state have given him and the trust that they have reposed in him. He must be the Governor of everybody, and eschew the spirit of bitterness and vindictiveness. By virtue of Section 182 (3) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), he is entitled to serve for only one term, which means that he has just four years. He can either use the four years to write his name in bold letters in the history of governance in Ondo state, or he could choose to fritter away the opportunity. He has a duty also not to disappoint the people of Ondo South who chose to support him. Dr. Olusegun Agagu from Okitipupa, Governor, 2003 – 2009 was the last person from that Senatorial district to serve as Ondo State Governor. It is only natural that the people of the area, incidentally the oil-bearing section of the state, will have high expectations that their son from Obe-Nla, Ilaje LGA would also serve them diligently as Agagu did. While managing such expectations, Aiyedatiwa must also be fair to other parts of the state, and must not for any reason think that the mandate means he must deal with the LGAs of his political opponents. Having served as Deputy Governor (2021 -2023), and as Acting Governor (2023 -2024), he knows enough about the state to understand precisely what needs to be done. He may consider returning to the N19.2 billion Araromi-Akodo/Ibeju-Lekki road which connects Ondo and Lagos States. This 50km road was flagged off in 2018 by the Ondo State Government and the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC). Six years later, that road which has the potential to promote agriculture, tourism and industrialization, and create economic opportunities, is yet to be completed. It is one legacy project that Aiyedatiwa, in partnership with the NDDC, should prioritize.

Meanwhile, the question is to be asked: how did the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) perform in Ondo State?  Ahead of the Ondo State election, questions had been raised about the integrity of INEC processes especially during off-cycle elections against the background of previous elections in Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Kogi, Imo, Osun States. INEC’s performance became a bigger issue of interest when the Ondo elections coincided with the report of a lecture delivered at Yale University in which the former Head of State/President Olusegun Obasanjo speaking at the Chinua Achebe Leadership Forum submitted that Nigeria’s state failure is now more glaring under President Tinubu’s “Baba-go-slow and Emi lo kan” administration wherein the state has been “captured.” Obasanjo didn’t spare INEC and the electoral process either. He expressed concerns about the integrity of INEC officials. He called for the institutional reform of INEC. He added: “As a matter of urgency, the chairperson and his or her staff” should be “thoroughly vetted.” Tinubu’s spokesperson, Mr. Bayo Onanuga has already written a scathing rebuttal to President Obasanjo questioning his moral right to sermonize about good governance, corruption and leadership. The fight between Obasanjo and the Tinubu administration is just gathering pace. Soon, the former may decide to settle the argument in a series of letters as he is wont to do. With his coterie of 13 spokespersons, Tinubu may have set up an “Iron Dome” media and public communication machinery but it is not necessary to respond to every major comment about the performance of the administration. The Obasanjo-Tinubu tango would be interesting to watch nonetheless. 

To be fair to INEC, the conduct of the Ondo State Gubernatorial election was very much an improvement on recent outings by the electoral body. Electoral materials were said to have been distributed as early as 6 am on election day. By 9.30 am voting was underway across the 18 LGAs. Turn- out was low, but voting went on smoothly. There were no major reports of failing machines, missing registers or technical glitches, even if the candidates of the PDP and the SDP have had cause to complain about irregularities. Agboola Ajayi of the PDP has even called on INEC Chairman, Professor Mahmood Yakubu to resign.  By 6.22 pm on Saturday, however, more than 90% of the results from polling stations had been uploaded on the IReV online portal. By 2.30 pm, Sunday afternoon, the election had been won and lost. It was far from being a perfect exercise, and there are strong arguments to be made for institutional reform and further amendments to the electoral framework.  It was rather untidy for example that up till the last moments before the election there was confusion over the identity of the legitimate candidate of the Labour Party. INEC, quoting a Court of Appeal ruling, had to wait till the last minute before substituting the name of the LP candidate. This may have contributed to the poor performance of the party in that election. Persons with disability are often treated shabbily in elections. There was no improvement in the recently concluded Ondo state election. 

But by far the most notable indication was the failure of the political parties and politicians to turn a new leaf. In Ondo state, there were reports of vote buying. Vote trading is a major form of corruption which undermines the integrity of the electoral process. The politicians were willing to buy votes, the voters were ready to sell, in the basest reflection of the transactional nature of Nigerian politics. The spokesperson of the Police Service Commission (PSC) which reportedly deployed officers to monitor police performance has said that the PSC was able to enforce discipline and civility but this is the same old story. The Deputy Inspector General of Police, Abiodun Alabi who led the police team praised the security agencies “for their highest level of integrity and professionalism”. Votes are sold and bought but the perpetrators even when arrested, for the most part walk free. Security agencies must be firmer in arresting and prosecuting those undermining the electoral process. President Tinubu in his message of congratulations to Governor Aiyedatiwa praised the people of Ondo state for their maturity and civility. With over 22, 000 security agents overseeing that particular election, the least that can be said is that Nigerian elections can be more civil.