This election can go any way 

In two days, Nigerians will vote in an election that is, in many respects, like none that the country has had since 1999.

For starters, regardless of what the pundits say, this is one unpredictable election that can go any way.

Partisans are upbeat about their chances, but the facts show no one can be sure of victory in this election. Although there were keen contests in the six previous elections, the power of incumbency or the realignment of forces foretold how the pendulum could swing. Things are different this year.

The reason for this is twofold. The first is because two candidates have prepared all their lives for this election. Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have nursed the ambition to rule Nigeria forever. Each of them has built alliances around the country, just as they have prepared war chests. Regardless of these arsenals, they have worked extremely hard campaigning in the past months, such that it is difficult to write off any of them. So, they are an even match where a decision can only come down to the wire.

This becomes more certain with the unprecedented entry of a seemingly formidable third force.

Supporters of the APC and PDP underplay the chances of Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), yet his raging popularity presents a challenge for both parties. For many Nigerians who claim to be tired of the two bigger parties, the LP and Obi are the next best thing. The candidate’s meteoric approval in eight months, therefore, poses a dent, if not a threat, to the other two parties.

The impact of Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) can also be significant. Even though analysts give him little or no chance of carrying the day, his influence in Kano and Jigawa State may redesign Nigeria’s electoral map. Both states presented two of the highest voter turnouts and contributed to most electoral victories in the past. A Kwankwaso victory or even mere significant posting, in these states, will affect the more entrenched parties.

The 2023 elections, for the first time in 24 years, give Nigerians four leading candidates. These candidates, representing Nigeria’s major ethnic nationalities, also come from four of its six regions. There are two candidates from the north and two from the south. This implies that no candidate can bank on any form of exclusive regional support beyond their individual zones. It is a tricky venture for everyone.

Anyhow it swings, however, this election will redefine some entrenched beliefs about Nigeria.

A Tinubu win would, for instance, reinforce the elite conception that rotational presidency is the way to go. A massive vote for Tinubu in the north would show that northern Nigerians agree that power must rotate between the north and the south.

Tinubu’s election would also show that Nigerians are pushing the frontiers of democracy beyond religious restrictions. Voting for the Tinubu/Shettima’s double Muslim ticket means that capacity and vision trounce religious sentiments in Nigerians’ consideration.

If Atiku wins, it would puncture the role of ethnic sentiments in the choice of leaders. Voting for Atiku as President will not only mean that Nigerians have elected two successive presidents of northern origin, but that two men of Fulani extraction are succeeding each other. It may imply that years of political bridge-building tower over any other consideration, but Atiku’s election will be a new level of democratic sophistication in Nigeria.

Concerning Obi, Nigerians must understand that there are no impossibilities in politics. Although many analysts, considering political mathematics and the history of elections, do not see Obi winning, this is an unusual election. The groundswell of support Obi receives amongst the youth and mass of the population may upset the norm, much to the surprise of political watchers.

 And the symbolism of an Obi victory will give the greatest impetus to national integration. It will put an end to the suspicion about the reality of a president of Igbo extraction and foster enduring national cohesion. If Obi wins, it will show the power of Nigerians to speak with one voice and decide their destiny by electing a leader of their choice. It will put an end to years of belief that some formidable structure is precedent to winning Nigeria’s presidency.

But if he does not win, Obi’s strategic involvement means he can determine the winner, especially if the exercise goes into a run-off. Anyhow, he will remain the star of this election cycle. No matter what anyone says, his candidature has given the scare to the otherwise surefooted parties, who started to take Nigerians for granted.

And speaking about Nigerians, the 2023 elections have generated more interest than ever before. In the past few months, Nigerians, young and old, speak about picking up their permanent voters’ cards and voting in the elections. There is also the chance that, unlike in the past, a majority of registered voters will decide who becomes Nigeria’s president. If the fuel and cash crunch does not rain on their parade, Nigerians want to change the previous situation where less than 50% of registered voters turn up.

There may be two reasons for this. The first is that Nigerians now understand how much their participation, or lack thereof, will cost them in the future. Second, people now have more confidence that their votes will count. This results from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)’s introduction of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), and its capacity to eliminate multiple voting and other malpractices.

The people’s confidence in the process is further buoyed by the President, Major-Gen Muhammadu Buhari (retd)’ s avowed commitment to credible elections.

This is the second time a sitting president will not be on the ballot since 1999. In 2007, when former President Olusegun Obasanjo was to leave office, he described that election as a do-or-die affair for his party, the PDP. He did everything for the PDP to win the elections. At the end, the beneficiary, the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, agreed that irregularities filled his elections.

Sixteen years later, Buhari speaks about an election devoid of malpractices. He signed the Electoral Act, 2022, into law, giving Nigeria an election, which allows for electronic transfer of results. Nigerians therefore feel that the elections will reflect their choices.

For this reason, the APC, with a sitting President and 21 state governors, cannot be sure about winning. In fact, some party stalwarts think that certain allies of the President are out to sabotage the party’s candidate without Buhari lifting a finger. While the President clearly wishes his party well, he doesn’t seem willing to draw blood to secure an APC victory.

With the laws governing these elections, politicians can no longer decide who gets what in the leadership recruitment process. Candidates have had no choice than work hard at convincing the people to vote for them; and that is what the people deserve.

The only other thing is the need for peace. Nigerians need to conduct themselves peacefully during this election. There is no need to behave otherwise. Ballots box snatching is now a waste of energy as it will not alter the results. Post-election sharing of unused ballot papers in favour of ‘popular’ candidates or ballot allocation of votes as expression of community, ethnic and party loyalty and rewards has become history. All electoral robbers and voting bandits who determined the country’s destiny in their rooms are now out of the job. Voting and constituents of merchants and electoral kingpins who submerged the people’s will and robbed leaders of legitimacy can no longer ply their trade. This is the election for the people. It is a new era where Nigerians should vote peacefully, and wait for the results, hoping the best man for Nigeria wins.

Adedokun can be reached via Twitter: @niranadedokun