Threatened protest and the search for paradise

I wrote a few weeks back about the broken global economic system, the increasing skew of global wealth in a tiny, few hands (a tinier few of them are Nigerians), and why countries in Sub-Saharan Africa – leaders and led – must be extremely careful lest we devolve into an unending cycle of value destruction. It bears repeating that the brokenness of the global economic system is real, even if not many economists are today talking about it – least of all in Nigeria. Capital has become highly empowered at the expense of everything else, and with capital, the latest and best technologies could be acquired, which will determine how our future pans out. Even in the most developed of countries, 90% of the population will be mere observers and victims of the next course of events.

In countries like ours, that number may get as high as 99.5%. Artificial Intelligence tops up the sundae and what it promises is yet unclear in totality, even to its chief drivers. It is the reason why there is so much stress everywhere. Africa is a little better in the interim because we don’t suffer much from the stultifying strangle of personal credit and merciless taxes. But that’s only for a while.

Given these issues, the Nigerian government has been constantly appealing to all and sundry to take things easy and give us some time. This appeal is even more urgent and important given the likelihood of these protests going awry.  But in my view, there is a deeper space that we have yet to get to. We must understand that there are no societies without disenfranchised and deprived people. Societies must thus be careful not to be pulled to the base by members who, for one reason or another, have not been able to fulfil their ambitions, or who have no ambitions whatsoever. The easiest thing for people to do is blame someone else for their misfortune.

We also need to remind ourselves that society is better with government than without. Thomas Hobbes described a time in the evolution of man, when everyone was on his/her own. You married a woman by clubbing her upside the head and kidnapping her into your home and any man stronger than you could impale you with a sharpened stone just to re-kidnap the same woman. In the end, people decided that it would be better to vest their right to self-defence in a central body called the government.

Anyhow, it is good to listen to what the organisers of the threatened protests are asking for – faceless as they are. They are asking for an immediate solution to:

1. Hunger
2. Inflation
3. Fuel pump price (reduction to N100 per litre)
4. Minimum wage (even though an agreement has been reached)
5. Power problems
6. Bad roads
7. Budget padding
8. INEC rigging of elections with impunity
9. Highest cost of governance (assuming country comparisons have been done)
10. Highest bidder appointments
11. Excessive borrowings for looting
12. Crude oil theft
13. Non-functional refineries
14. Excess electricity tariffs
15. Excessive bank charges
16. Resource control (maybe they mean states should control their resources)
17. 1999 constitution (I believe they want it junked for a ‘perfect’ constitution)
18. No restructuring (not clear if this does not clash with resource control)
19. Consumption instead of production (this one is a dead giveaway as an Obidient project).
20. Arable farmland without subsidised mechanised farming equipment
21. Breakdown of law and order
22. Injustice at the courts
23. Failed civil service system
24. Non-functional educational system
25. Japa syndrome
26. Corruption
27. Unaccountability of public office holders
28. Poor road networks
29. Worst Housing programme
30. Non real estate funding
31. Interest rates for entrepreneurs
32. Devastating economic policies
33. Looting and lootocracy
34. Growing division amongst ethnic groups
35. Naira devaluation
36. Poverty
37. Non-support for local manufacturers and local content
38. Highest import duties ever
39. Underfunded army and police
40. Salaries and pension delays.

My first reaction to these demands though, was that if all these issues were fixed, we may as well be living in heaven on earth. Is there anywhere on earth where a bunch of these problems don’t exist?

In addition to these demands floating about in the public space, the EndBadGovernanceNow group has also demanded full disclosure of the salaries and allowances of public senators and rep members (valid), reform of the EFCC, reduction of electricity tariffs, reopening of national borders, and for government to restore tertiary institutions’ fees by ‘reversing subsidies’ (I wouldn’t know what this means).

There is also a demand for the immediate release of ‘Mazi’ Nnamdi Kanu (another dead giveaway), an increase in the minimum wage to at least N250,000 (even though the labour union and government have agreed at N70,000 per month), abrogation of the Senate and institution of the part-time legislature (this needs a constitutional amendment, only that these guys may be more interested in the anarchical side of things), scrapping of the 1999 Constitution (another farfetched illegality), another national conference, investment in the educational sector and free education, the release of political detainees including those detained since EndSARS, re-nationalization of privatized entities (now here’s a big one), reinstatement of subsidies, a probe of all past governments, ending of human rights violation, fixing of the power sector, investment in public works and infrastructure, reform of judiciary and sacking of judges, and institution of diaspora voting.

The overarching demand of the faceless groups happens to be that President Tinubu steps down. It is unsure what the vision is if indeed the government steps down. Like the EndSARS era, this protest – if it does happen – stands the risk of going on forever, and the political angle of it all, stands a chance of overwhelming the whole thing. Many may join out of sheer, blind anger, not knowing they are being used by a tiny, faceless few – home and abroad – to achieve rather sinister aims. I wrote extensively during the EndSARS period and warned, and we saw how EndSARS became EndBUHARI, and EndNIGERIA. What split the whole thing was when some of the more vocal players found out they were being used to almost legitimiwe what Nigeria had legislated as an illegality – same-sex marriage.

A chunk of the funding for EndSARS came from a global LGBTQ+ group that was ready to go for the jugular and finally crush the traditional opposition to their ideas and culture. Those groups are always around and seeking. There is a big chance they are also on standby to ‘loud’ this present one. And in the EndSARS period, nobody could account for monies collected. It was a fiasco.  From get-go, the protest doesn’t promise to be logical, or set out with a productive mindset. It is labelled ‘10 Days of Rage’. Rage is a fiery, blind, form of anger. It promises destruction and as I warned in my last article, we cannot afford cycles of destruction of value. Nigeria lost over N3 trillion (almost 2% of her GDP to fire in the EndSARS rage, and about 10% if we consider the work and business that we could not do at that moment). This is part of why our GDP has slowed down today – hoping it comes back up when we can rebase.

Some of the demands cannot be measurable. They are aspirational and can only be worked towards. The government is working towards many of them – such as investment in education, fixing of power sector, fixing of roads and other infrastructure. Some of the demands don’t make sense, e.g. reduction of bank charges (the government cannot do this but the banks themselves), reversal of pump price of petrol to N100 or N300, reform of the EFCC and judiciary at large etc. Some of the demands are downright political and betray the sponsorship of the protests, such as the demand to release Nnamdi Kanu and increase in wage to N250,000. Yet others are illegal, like those that assume that the constitution can be ignored and substituted with fiat action – such as abolishing the Senate. Even if Nigeria gets to that point, the process will be methodical.

Then I saw this video circulating online, of President Olusegun Obasanjo engaging with Jeff Koinange (former CNN correspondent whom he had kicked out of Nigeria for ‘hiring people to pose as Niger Delta terrorists’ and putting a bad spin on that saga in 2006/7) and winding up the youths of Africa.  Obasanjo spoke of how the youths were hungry and angry and how Africa was sitting on a keg of gunpowder. It was a compelling watch. However, Obasanjo handed an open cheque to the youths of Africa to get angry and do whatever they liked. The statements were fallacious – by assuming that the youths of other regions of the world were having it good. The statement ignored the very fact that every country is a product of its history and that those problems exist everywhere and all the time. The wisest countries have understood how and why not to rile the youths into a fit of rage. Whereas there are many avenues of doing governance better in Nigeria, minding the optics and avoiding blowbacks from the public, it must be said that Nigeria is still a hopeful place and that in the countries that many of our youths have japa-ed to, the kind of oppression, financial hassles, and air of hopelessness seen by many is palpable. It was comforting though, to learn from someone close that the Koinange interview is not recent. But its implications are heavy.

Here are my key concerns – issues I believe we should consider and which should guide our actions and emotions in the future:

• Fix our all-or-nothing attitude

As with the EndSARS era, if this protest ever gains traction, it will go on forever as protesters ask for the fulfilment of EVERYTHING they have asked for. During the EndSARS protest, some people even asked that they never stop but add more demands. They refused to count their gains until everything went south.

• Government spending and corruption

It is important to be very specific and scientific about the idea that Nigeria’s government is spending ‘too much’. First of all, Nigeria runs perhaps the lowest per capita national budget in the world. This year’s budget at N28 trillion, is barely $17 billion. Nigeria’s budget has fallen in dollar terms in the last few years as the Naira depreciated. This reduces the space for profligacy and forces the government to spend all it has on the people. It is not a perfect system but we have made a lot of gains in this government of auditors, accountants and bankers. From the president to the vice president, coordinating minister for the economy, and central bank governor, these men are known to be frugal and to value every cent. Critics should reevaluate the usual rhetoric that is widely quoted everywhere. The challenge we have is how to expand our budget and provide more to the public. This is not to say that there is no corruption in different places. The EFCC is headed by serious people with an aversion to financial crime too. We shall get there.

• The expectation of free spending and paradise on earth for nothing

Not enough work has been done on our culture and psychology as a people and whether our expectations from life – through government – are in tune with modern reality. We know that the average Nigerian has a very high expectation from life, does not believe in doing two or three jobs to get by, and wants the very best. Those of our people who have emigrated will be able to tell us how life for the poor abroad is all about this kind of dog work. We are the people who dance on money, and our music and religion are replete with the idea that ‘God’ himself will provide abundantly because we are ‘special’. It is good to be special and to feel special, but reality may be very different. Anyone observing Nigerians from afar will understand that we will get a reality check at some point or the other.

• Productivity: We have all sinned and erred

Many people who complain about Nigeria say that we need to ramp up productivity. That is valid. Protesters and their sympathizers must look inward and understand that we all contributed to where Nigeria is, productivity-wise. It is easy to blame people in government. But it is not enough to play voyeurism and stick to criticising the government only without getting involved. Anyone with average self-esteem should get involved without delay to see what it is all about and how they can make a difference themselves. The truth is that very few Nigerians are involved in the productive sectors. Too many of us are bankers, entertainers, and so on. Nigerians don’t want to get involved in the really hard, long-term stuff. Whenever we have the urge to point at the government for where we find ourselves, we should remember that the engineer who becomes a banker is part of the problem. Nothing comes easy. So engineers could have stuck it until they produced something tangible. That person that japas abroad is also part of the problem. There are perhaps millions of Nigerians abroad who went there on scholarships never to return home. Those ones are also abusing the government when their irresponsibility formed a foundation for Nigeria’s failure. It is not enough to demonstrate, protest, curse and destroy. Nothing will change if we are not humble enough to accept our part of the blame.

• Death by statistics

False stats will kill Nigeria. Statistics are going around about how there are now 20 million children out of school. There are false stats about our poverty level. Around hunger and all that. Naturally, human beings – especially Nigerians – believe bad news ahead of good news. As I will argue shortly, there are sectors doing well in Nigeria today and people making money. Whereas we can do better in terms of income distribution, the doomsday scenario being painted in many quarters is just not accurate.  Our social capital does help. And many countries are used to serious dislocations. Someone did a short video about prices in Ghana, where most food items cost double what we have in Nigeria. And the average hotel room costs $100 in Accra. That is N160,000 here. A similar room will be found at N60,000 even in Lagos. We must learn to count our blessings. Protests will be led by people who have no exposure to what is going on outside Nigeria at our peril. The fact is that in every civilisation, there is the disenfranchised. The insurrection of the poor must not result in a worse outcome for all. There must be an infusion of knowledge and wisdom by people who are less driven by rage and more by the truth, to ensure we don’t turn our country to Hell itself.

• The search for greener pastures

As said, the financial stress is global, and the breakdown of economic systems is equally worldwide. We say the real triumph of ultra-capitalist tendencies in the last few years, but the fight is still ongoing. Someone analysed prices in the UK and the US in the last 18 months, and many food prices have doubled. Many of our friends who have emigrated are going through dire straits. Many are sleeping on the streets in Canada, Ireland, UK. Some will do well, but they have to wait and learn the hard ways over many years of trying. The Japa for greener pastures does not always deliver the goods and certainly not as quickly as thought. Protesters should consider that Nigeria is a relatively young country albeit with tall ambitions. We should not destroy the little we have been able to put together infrastructure-wise just because we are trying to emulate what we’ve seen about other countries in well-choreographed TV documentaries on CNN or social media.

• How about all the government’s efforts?

And please, what has happened to the government’s efforts? I see a lot of them every day. The coordinating minister for the economy,Wale Edun, said 600,000 families have been reached with new palliatives since it was restarted about a month ago. How come Nigerians never acknowledge when they are getting something from the government?  There are so many grants being given too. As a private sector consultant, my company facilitated SME loans for hundreds of Nigerians. Several SME financing initiatives are running concurrently. There are so many Nigerians who give away so much to the poor, too. The real estate sector is expanding especially at the middle level. People are buying lands and building structures – often on their own, with their own money, and from scratch. I see an economy that is growing in some areas. Yet, the only thing covered by the media are shouts of hunger. In the first place, those who get government assistance in any way never speak up. Some of them have developed a love-hate relationship with the government to the extent that even when they receive anything beneficial, they downplay it and often deny it. The 600,000 families who have benefited from well-intentioned palliatives are not saying anything, and some of them will participate in the burning and destruction of infrastructure if that happens. This may be because they believe that the amount they were given is not enough given the quantum of wealth that their chi/head has promised them, or simply because the game is to upend current political structures and to install themselves.

• Sectors doing well

And finally, there are some sectors which have done well even in these times. The banking and finance sector is one. This sector has done so well that it hit the radar of the taxman who is demanding a windfall tax. Some have argued against the windfall taxes – notably bankers and their collaborating powerful tax consultants. Other sectors which are doing well include real estate (driven by the innate Nigerian need to build houses no matter what). There is no enumeration of even houses that are built in unplanned areas – and this is the norm in Nigeria as people sweat to get off paying landlords. The entertainment sector is doing very well, even though many of the proceeds don’t make it back home. Rema, the young musician, was recently paid $3 million for singing for a couple of minutes at the wedding of one of the Ambani sons. Because an economy is about debit and credit, like accounting, we should refrain from painting everything bad and look for where the credits are going. Some of the sectors doing well include manufacturers in the FMCG and industrial areas. Nigeria posted a trade surplus of N6.2 trillion in Q1 2024, the highest-ever amount in our history. The agricultural and export sectors are flying presently. Cocoa sells at N1.3 million a tonne or more. Cassava is a hot cake presently whether for local or foreign consumption and use. Other products like cashews, sesame, soybean, sorghum etc, the world just can’t get enough. And the petroleum sector has done well this year, as noted earlier. It is certainly not the end for Nigeria, warranting another destructive protest.

Conclusion

Whereas Nigeria is still a simple economy, the young people of today should note that the world of work has changed, despite the thinking of successive governments the world over. Time waits for no man. Young people have to go for it wherever it may be found. Even the japa phenomenon will only be tackled in Nigeria when we open our borders and systems to absorb the best talents from our sub-regions (West, Central and Eastern Africa). As our best brains are poached endlessly, we should embark on a process of mass reorientation for them never to forget the poor motherland (all of them have benefited from the goodness of Nigeria in many ways), and we must start to get the best from our regions. We need all the talents we can find, to solve our worst problems.

And I acknowledge, as I’ve always done from my standpoint as an economist, that optics matter. A clip floats on social media of some SSA in a long convoy. It is simply disgusting.  We should know better.  We should know that the world has changed, and that advancements in technology mean those in government are being minutely scrutinised by the public. We must not keep haemorrhaging goodwill.

Nigerians must never queue behind those who seek to destroy. Destruction is easy to do. What is tough is the ability to analyse and think deeply, and proffer solutions. It is easy to point fingers and exonerate oneself from the issues even though you are contributing in your ways especially when we make a selfish, short-sighted decision just to get ahead. Nigerian youths must ensure that they don’t make protesting into a career. Everyone must seize the slightest chance to be independent, reduce their greed and fix their attitude to life. Many get overlooked at interviews especially because of their bad attitudes. Many youths of today go in entitled or with cynicism and skepticism written all over their faces. Who will employ someone with a bad attitude? How can the business of someone who does not like people, or is in a constant hurry, or who eats up his capital because he needs to show who’s a big boy thrive and scale? How can a citizen who shuns history, is only concerned about self, is unappreciative of the little he has, and is constantly seeking to join the Joneses, thrive, survive and scale?

The answers to these questions are blowing in the wind.

I recommend that we be very cautious about these protests. We must keep things at a civil level. We must watch those who try to fan embers of violence and decode their motivations. Some are drug-addled, having ruined their own lives with their own choices. Some have mental issues and only get their kicks from seeing destruction. We should also look inward and tell ourselves some home truths about ourselves. Those who have benefited greatly from the turn of events should also reach out more to the needy. If Nigeria goes down, be sure that your businesses will slow down too and it takes time to recover.

For protesters, please do not destroy infrastructure, property and businesses. Replacing them will cost all of us so much. It just isn’t worth it. And for right-thinking members of society, we must protect what we have built from destroyers and marauders. Nigeria is certainly not the worst place on earth; not even near. This country is one of the greatest places to be on earth. Great weather, great food, great people, great opportunities to make a difference and actualise one’s self. Only we can make Nigeria great. On the many grievances, the government is listening and governance will keep improving.