Tinubu vs Osinbajo: An intriguing south-west political derby (1)

In footballing terms, a derby is a game between two teams from the same city for instance Mighty Jets of Jos and Plateau United both of the Tin city of Jos. Or of the famous Rangers International and Vasco da Gama of Enugu. It could also mean a game between two teams in different regions of the same country as in the old Nigerian derby between IICC Shooting Stars of Ibadan and Rangers of Enugu, or the oriental derby between Enyimba of Aba and same Rangers of Enugu.

Needless to say, such derbies are fierce, hotly contested, often feisty and in many cases brutal affairs, the reason being that history, tradition and ancient grudges all come to play in the supremacy battle between the two teams. Although not a football game, the trending political contest between Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo for the right to pick to be the presidential flag bearer of the All Progressive Congress (APC) party can be appropriately described as the political equivalent of a football derby.

To start with both are from the Yoruba ethnic group of the south-west region of Nigeria. Both also belong to the same progressive wing of politics in the south-west and Nigeria and have worked closely together in regional politics and governance in Lagos and the south-west.
And as in most football derbies where one team originated from the other or shared the same origin before the parting of ways, VP Yemi Osinbajo was a long time close protégé of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. And now with the VP signifying his interest to fight his erstwhile boss for the right to pick the presidential ticket of the APC, the party they both belong to, we can conclusively say that between them things can never be the same again politically and even conceivably in other ways. So as the two square up in what promises to be an intense and intriguing political contest what can we expect?

For sure this is not the first time in Nigerian politics whence two closely related personalities either by blood or political affiliations or coming from the same political regions have come head to head. The most notable one we know of in the annals of Nigerian history in this regard was that of the venerable Arochukwu born intellectual giant and statesman Alvan Ikoku and his equally cerebral son Sam Ikoku both of blessed memory. The father, Alvan contested under the United Nigeria Independence Party (UNIP) while the son, Sam, was of the Awoist Action Group. Both contested against each other for a seat in the Eastern regional assembly in the 1950s.

In the present political head to head between Tinubu and Osinbajo, parallels are being drawn with the fierce political schism that engulfed the western region in the first republic between Chief Obafemi Awolowo the leader of the western-based Action Group and his deputy and premier of the region Chief Ladoke Akintola.

For daring to come out to signify interest in contesting for the APC presidential ticket when all along Tinubu had more or less laid claim to the right of first refusal to the ticket, many in the southwest have accused the VP of being a betrayer to his benefactor. Those who harbour such thoughts believe that Osinbajo should have deferred his ambition in favour of Tinubu whose chances of bringing home the glory of the presidency to the south-west are much firmer. They also believe that in eyeing what his benefactor Tinubu is after, the VP is biting the fingers that fed him.

The poignancy of the contest between Tinubu and the VP is not just underscored by the fact that the triumph of one in the race to get the presidential ticket of the APC will almost certainly mean political oblivion for the other, but also by the fact that the south-west political landscape and possibly by extension Nigeria’s too will be greatly affected by it.

Within the south-west itself, which is the epicentre of the political jousting between Tinubu and VP Osinbajo, lines are getting drawn and the decibel level of the rhetoric is getting decidedly more acidic. Many believe that with the stakes as high as they are it won’t be long before it degenerates from benign to malign.

By all reckoning, Tinubu is by far the more politically grounded and experienced of the two. Indeed it must be said that at first glance, the political contest between them may appear to be almost a walkover for Asiwaju. But such hasty conclusions may falter against the emerging trend in the south-west which tends to view Tinubu as a dodgy politician who has reached his sell-by date.

Although not having a comparative political structure of his own to match that of Tinubu, VP Osinbajo however has the growing body of the young and upwardly mobile sections of the southwest rooting for him. He can also count on the professionals and the intelligentsia of the southwest who see in him the embodiment of the modern, urbane articulate and liberal-minded south westerner. In VP Osinbajo, they see someone who could finally help rid the south-west of the ilk of Tinubu whose reportedly vast wealth is questionable, whose mafia-style and structure of politics are abhorrent and out of sync with the open style befitting the emerging class of south westerners.

(To be continued)