Tinubu’s debt to the north-west

It has been acknowledged that the All Progressives Congress would not have won the 2023 presidential elections without the support of the north-west towards Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s campaign. Despite the north-west being the country’s largest voting bloc and the APC’s most reliable stronghold since 2015, the emergence of strong presidential contenders from the northern region such as Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso made the battle more challenging than usual. Nevertheless, against all odds, the north-west stood by Asiwaju and provided him with the votes necessary to secure victory.

In the 2023 presidential election, the north-west region contributed 2,652,235 votes out of the total 8,794,726 votes cast in the country. It is noteworthy that Tinubu received more than 30% of the total votes he garnered in the country from this region alone. Consequently, it is imperative that the north-west region is rewarded fairly in the upcoming government. Elections are primarily determined by numbers, and the All Progressives Congress (APC) is well aware of this fact. Therefore, the party strategically selected candidates from regions where they could be confident of securing support and engaged in political calculations to maximise their benefits.

Kano state, which holds significant importance as a vote bank in Nigeria, proved to be a valuable asset to the All Progressives Congress (APC) during the presidential election, with only Lagos state surpassing its contribution in terms of votes. As a result of Tinubu’s impressive performance, he secured 517,341 votes, while his closest rival, Atiku, obtained a mere 131,716 votes, and Peter Obi received 28,513 votes, consolidating his position as the leading candidate in the race. Despite the presence of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso from the NNPP, who was dedicated to preventing the APC from gaining a substantial number of votes, the party was able to secure victory, indicating that the sub-region, particularly Kano state, is a loyal supporter of the APC and is not just a fair-weather friend. It was a hard-fought battle, but the APC emerged victorious.

If the All Progressives Congress (APC) is genuinely concerned about maintaining its grip on power beyond 2027, there are two strategic reasons why prioritising the north-west region is crucial. The first is the growing influence of Senator Kwankwaso which poses a significant threat that cannot be overlooked. To neutralise Kwankwaso’s politics, it is essential to have a principal figure of the government from north-west, particularly in his stronghold of Kano state.

The second reason is that the people of the north-west region are likely to consider their position in the Tinubu-led government when choosing their leaders in the upcoming election. As a result, the APC cannot afford to lose an ally with such a large numerical size and significant voting power.

Since Tinubu and Shettima have already taken on executive roles, the struggle for compensation has shifted to the National Assembly. Apart from the south-west and the north-east, each of Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones has been vying for the positions of senate president and speaker of the house of representatives, with the former being the most fiercely contested.

Senator Barau Jibrin of the All Progressives Congress is one of the top contenders for the position of senate president, and his impressive legislative track record speaks volumes. He has been a member of the national assembly since 1999 and possesses the necessary experience to not only support the executive branch and coordinate the ruling party’s politics but also effectively manage the affairs of the legislative chamber without the typical infighting.

Senator Barau’s victory as the senator representing Kano North despite the political turmoil caused by the NNPP in the state is a testament to his political pedigree. He is the heavyweight that the APC needs to re-establish a strong presence in Kano state and across the north-west region. He won his election by a landslide, securing 234,652 votes and defeating the candidate of Kwankwaso’s New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), Abdullahi Baffa, who polled 177,014 votes.

Senator Barau’s experience extends beyond the senate as he has also served in the house of representatives from 1999 until 2015, before running for senate and winning. This extensive experience in both legislative chambers makes him a familiar and adept leader in managing relations, which gives him an edge over any of his colleagues vying for the position of senate president.

Another factor that sets Senator Barau apart from his colleagues vying for the position of senate president is his emotional maturity and impeccable record. He has no history of engaging in any dubious activities, and there are no financial scandals or court cases that could potentially ruin his career. Nigeria’s next president of the senate must show that they are not burdened by such distractions, and Senator Barau fits the profile perfectly as a gentleman of exemplary character.

The decision of who becomes Nigeria’s next senate president is crucial for the All Progressives Congress (APC) as it will determine their electoral future and chances of retaining power beyond 2027. Therefore, the party must take their time to weigh their options and consider the importance of adequately compensating the North-West region. Failing to do so may lead to a loss of support and votes from the region in the next election. It is important for the APC to make a wise decision that will ensure the party’s continued success and hold on to power.

Gata is a media practitioner and public affairs analyst. He writes from Abuja and can be reached via [email protected]