Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket: The calculation and the war

BY KOLAWOLE JOHNSON

The 2023 election year is here! The political awareness is unprecedented. The anger against the system is deep-rooted. Whatever is left of our fulsome value system is facing grievous depredation without respite. The ugly face of national disintegration has never been so advertised.

Sadly, the core issues at stake: insecurity, failed economy, poverty in the land, unemployment, debt crisis etc. have all taken the back seats; religion, undoubtedly, has taken the ‘primus’ seat in the social episcopal space (apologies to the Scottish). The reality is leaving no one in doubt as to the level of fragmentation, intolerance, mutual suspicion, fear and lack of trust within the ecosystem. We, truly, should be worried!

During the primaries of the All Progressive Congress (APC) at Eagle Square, Abuja, an anonymous message on WhatsApp started making the rounds at some point among the delegates. The message reads, ‘REJECT MUSLIM-MUSLIM TICKET’. An official of the party had to address the delegates, assuring them that the party had not taken any decision regarding presidential ticket pairing. The message was said to have originated from the camp of a leading southern Christian aspirant (as it was later reported) as a last-minute strategy to sway delegates. I do not share the view of those who think the anonymous message was too poisonous for an internal party affair. Rather it shows the Christian camp in the party had a full situation awareness as to the risk of fielding a Muslim candidate from the south. They know the electoral base of the party – the north-west and north-east – two Muslim-dominated geo-political zones. They know that except APC is ready to take a hypothetical gamble at the general election, the party remains stuck with the same faith ticket should a Muslim emerge from the south as the flag bearer.

Regardless, many Christian delegates as well as delegates of other religious leaning voted for Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the former governor of Lagos state. He emerged. From that moment, sagacious political minds within and outside the APC could place a life-long bet that the fate of the party was sealed for a same-faith ticket considering political realities.

A few days later, Christian leaders reacted. Preachers mounted the pulpit to chant war songs against the candidacy. One respected clergy in Abuja had the church members on their feet before directing them on who to vote for. Of course, against Tinubu’s candidacy, not surprising, though. Earlier, I explained how some Christian leaders were neck-deep in Osibanjo’s presidential project. Some pulpit’s reactions after Tinubu’s emergence were largely from the depth of pain of defeat. Some were, however, genuine. The love for the faith burns.

According to Daily Trust, Tinubu set up a strategy committee after his emergence. The committee drew his attention to the sensitivity of religious balancing while alerting him to the need to secure the needed votes for victory. Eleven persons were recommended, seven from the north-east and four from the north-west. Kashim Shettima and Babangana Zulum topped the list from the north-east while Nasir El-Rufai, governor of Kaduna state and Atiku Bagudu of Kebbi state led the north-west. Yakubu Dogara was the only Christian on the list. Just so we know, the committee was headed by a Christian, a political scientist who holds a doctorate degree in public administration, and a former political adviser in the Peoples Democratic Party. The thinking was clearly about victory.

The All Progressive Congress was a hurricane in 2015. That steam has, however, gone, it has been buried by poor performance in office. The central government birthed then has been a huge disappointment. The party’s campaign focused on fighting corruption and reviving the economy and security of life and property. Sadly, the government falls below expectations on all fronts. Even the sitting vice-president, after seven years in office, could not campaign on achievements; he opted for promises and hope-building. This will certainly affect the party’s chances in the general election.

As a matter of fact, the “Obedient movement” is only harvesting from the public disapproval. This is not limited to the southern part of the country; it is not so different in the north. The last local government election in Katsina state was a disaster for the party. On paper, APC won, but PDP carried the day in reality. They know it. The ruling party lost in most of the LGAs. The Buhari charm has waned. The Atiku political machine is going for the last ride, it is a make or mar for that long-standing ambition. APC knows it may need to go beyond the norm, if necessary, to emerge victorious.

Looking at the two general elections APC has been involved in, the party has never done exceptionally well in the Christian-dominated south. Its stronghold remains the Muslim-dominated north-west and north-east, delivering over 60% of the party’s total votes in the presidential elections. Going through the stages of descriptive, predictive and prescriptive analysis, that decision is clearly a political decision to appeal to a base where hope lies, seeing the danger in following the norm.

Inevitably, the predictive analysis (Muslim-Muslim ticket) earlier expressed at the convention later happened. The backlash is understandable. Key offices must reflect the plurality of our society. Though Tinubu’s traducers have never disputed his creative governance qualities. Not a few will bet their meal ticket that he will certainly do better than what presently obtains, despite his catalogue of weaknesses. But he has inherited the failure of a government he boastfully claimed to have installed and he has an election to win. The natural instinct is that of survival, hence the hard choice of his same faith ticket.

Nevertheless, Tinubu’s team failed to heed the advice of its own all-encompassing planning and strategy committee that stated discernibly in its report that, “In response to addressing the key positions, their religion and the likely public backlash that might arise … our principal should hold consultations with religious leaders across the society”. This was not done before making the very sensitive decision public. His strategy team was obviously caught napping. You do not struggle to catch up with narratives in such a very sensitive scenario, you dictate and dominate overwhelmingly. To think the PDP and the Obedient movement would allow such to slide without feasting on it was an unforced error. The noise was louder because it was fueled and energised. It caught up with their party members who also wanted to be seen as being politically correct even when they were fully aware of that possibility before supporting him for the party’s ticket.

Come to think of it, we know Tinubu’s wife is an ordained pastor in the largest pentecostal church in Nigeria. If he had picked a Christian vice with a Christian wife which is the most probable, it would have been three and a half against half. Do you think those Ulamas see someone with a Christian wife let alone a pastor as a ‘serious’ Muslim? The righteous judges can carry on with the pretence and also showily deny Remi Tinubu, professing that a vote for her is a vote against her faith. Sister Remi is only a pastor, not a Christian! No be so?

While the Tinubu camp was caught between pleasing the pro-mixed-faith crowd and appealing to the APC’s Muslim-dominated stronghold (north-east and north-west), the opposition at every turn would seek to profit from either option.

Notwithstanding, the informed minds are fully aware that the fundamental issues in this election are beyond the sedative slant. In the final analysis, may Nigeria be the ultimate winner in 2023.

Kolawole, a socio-political analyst, writes from Abuja.