Tinubu’s troubles and APC’s unfolding dagger fight

Wherever he is at the moment, Bola Tinubu, national leader of the APC, must surely be regretting some of the choices and political decisions he has made of recent. For a man who was once described as one of the best political strategists our country has yet produced, but has obviously become outsmarted in the government he helped bring about, these are clearly not the best of times. Indeed, how are the mighty fallen!

After pretending for months that all was well in his camp within the party, Tinubu finally removed that veil on Sunday with his caustic press statement and call that John Odigie-Oyegun, the party’s chairman, should resign his position forthwith.

Accusing Odigie-Oyegun of sabotaging the will of democracy in Ondo state by overriding the decision of the appeal panel that ordered that a fresh governorship primary be conducted after investigations showed that the delegates’ list used in the election which produced Rotimi Akeredolu as the party’s flag bearer in the state’s forthcoming gubernatorial elections had been tampered with, Tinubu believes the party’s national chairman has derailed from the path of progressives, and should go.

I believe the days and weeks ahead will sure be very interesting but dire for the party.

However, while Tinubu’s demand for Oyegun’s resignation is already dividing the party’s other top leaders, and we expect some more explanations from the latter’s camp, part of the reasons for the underperformance of the Muhammadu Buhari administration so far, without doubt, is the failure of the APC to justly govern itself and manage its various political camps and interests like Tinubu pointed out in a part of his long statement.

Right from the leadership tussle in both chambers of the National Assembly to the Kogi governorship debacle where all of Tinubu’s preferred candidates suffered defeats, it has been one humiliation after another. With the way Tinubu has so far been treated by the Buhari-led CPC arm of the APC, the former Lagos state governor must certainly be learning the political lessons of his life at this period.

But all of these are not just happenstances. They were well-planned, orchestrated and clinically carried out to reduce his influence and castrate him politically. We must be clear on this unfolding dagger fight in the APC. It’s a fierce contest for party control not just now but in the future. It’s clearly beyond the Ondo state governorship primaries.

Tinubu’s supporters and followers must surely be lamenting the woes that have befallen their leader by now. But for his opponents, they believe the earlier his wings are clipped, the better for them and their interests. To make matters worse, even his erstwhile political disciples like Babatunde Fashola, Olorunnimbe Mamora, a former speaker in Lagos and senator, and Akeredolu whom he supported earlier, have since dumped him. But this didn’t just happen. There are unseen hands pulling the strings.

However, some key points must not be missed in this ensuing fight which will play out not just in private meetings but also continue to spill out in the public glare.

On one hand, the internal schism and likely breakup of the party portends some good for Nigeria’s politics and democracy. It would ultimately bring an end to a group of strange bedfellows who only banded together for the primary purpose of taking power from a discredited former government despite their own ill-preparation to really bring about change and better the lives and welfare of Nigerians. Because the economic wellbeing of Nigerians has gotten worse under APC, on that score, it would thus be good riddance to bad rubbish.

On the other hand, however, when two elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers. Nigerians will also bear the brunt of the rofo-rofo fight as it would negatively affect the quality of governance just as we are already experiencing currently in the country. Like I had stated in this column back in January that 2016 will be APC’s make or mar year depending on its performance, it’s evident that the APC, like the PDP, hasn’t lived up to Nigerians’ expectations so far.

Meanwhile, although Nigeria’s unity must be promoted at all times because we are stronger together as a whole despite our diversity, yet, looking back at our country’s political and governance trajectory, we know those who have an entitlement mentality, who believe they are born to rule and would do anything to burn down the house if things don’t go their way.

Until such folks renew their minds and curb themselves of such warped mentality, dealing with them requires higher wisdom and tact otherwise it is at our collective peril. And what you get in such polity is nothing but continuous tensions among the different ethnic nationalities as everyone tries to push for their own interests.

I’m no prophet of doom but for the APC, things will only get worse. The current signs in APC indicate that the party will fall apart eventually. It’s only a matter of time. And just as a house divided against itself cannot stand, a political party divided against itself cannot also deliver good governance to the people. Nigerians will most likely not reward the APC for its ill-preparation for governance after sloganeering itself to power on the mantra of change during the 2015 elections.

In all of these, I believe Tinubu has no one but himself to blame. He’s obviously a bad student of Nigeria’s political history and the outcomes of previous party alliances like the one he brokered for the APC which eventually brought Buhari to power after three earlier unsuccessful attempts. Were it not so, he would have been better guided on the real nature of some of the politicians he was entering into partnership with all in a bid to gain federal power after his political conquests in Lagos and the South West geopolitical zone.

I also suggest he does some serious introspection. For instance, what is he doing wrong that is making those he made politically to become disloyal and dump him?

Above all, the scenarios that will play out in the months ahead will be similar to that of a dagger fight. It’s going to be the survival of the fittest. The swiftest. And the fastest. We should also expect more secrets to be spilled, more hearts to be broken and more backs to be stabbed. At the end of the day, the mutually-assured destruction of some gladiators in the party is inevitable because reputations would be ruined and careers would be destroyed.

But will Tinubu allow himself to be politically killed in this dagger fight of the APC? Honestly, I don’t know. However, we watch as the drama unfolds.

Please, follow me on Twitter: @ofemigan

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