Trump will win and one other prediction that has come true

I promised to discuss the impact of Brexit on the economies of Commonwealth Countries, with emphasis on Nigeria. I believe that Britain’s exit from the EU is good for Nigeria, despite the short-term volatilities being experienced in the markets. On a second thought, I decided that an analysis on the lessons learnt from Brexit would be a worthwhile exercise.

A friend, whom I worked with during my days as a PhD student in England, called and was complaining bitterly about how Britain has committed a blunder by refusing to follow ‘’expert opinions’’. He wishes the Americans don’t follow suit. Unfortunately, my friend, who is British, doesn’t understand that there is already a new normal in Western politics. I forgive him because he has a PhD in engineering and not in political science.

Big multinational companies campaigned vigorously for Britain to remain, while small companies were divided. Political leaders followed suit by predicting all kinds of doom should Britain leave the EU. Even Mark Carney’s intervention was seen as an abnormality, and he was vehemently criticized by the Leave Campaigners. They believed that the Bank of England had no business in heated political campaigns.

The first lesson is that a large number of people believe that ‘’expert opinions’’ from their political and business elites are self-serving. In the last referendum, a narrow majority showed that the West is now more concerned about nationalism and protectionism. And any man who puts his country first, in the eyes of Western electorates, no matter how stupid he might sound, is a hero. Donald Trump and Boris Johnson fall in this category.

This exit has shown other EU nations that there is a possibility of leaving the bloc.  Polls show that there is an anti-EU sentiment in France, and that ten other EU countries would want power to return to their national governments. We are in an era of nationalism. A man who says he would build a fence blocking Mexicans would be surely popular among his native people. I can bet you, Trump doesn’t believe most of what he says. He is just a good politician.

Even nonnatives who are nationalized, sometimes, think like the natives. There is this joke that once some immigrants get their British passports, they start favoring anti-immigration narratives.

Rhetoric from some EU foreign ministers show that the EU doesn’t mind punishing Britain to set an example for would-be quitters. But, those who want to leave the EU don’t mind. They believe they can make Britain great again. The man who wants to make America great again would easily convince the electorate that he knows how to handle foreign countries. After all, it is America first.

In March, a South African newspaper wrote: ‘’Momma doesn’t want the baby. The machine begat a monster. It’s doomsday time for the grand old party (GOP)’’. Despite some similar uncharitable interventions from foreign media, the man still went ahead to win the Republican primaries. This is the new normal for you.

As the campaign gathers steam, Trump will mend fences with these foreign countries.

Besides, he knows that all these people from foreign countries, who hate him, can’t even vote in the U.S. presidential elections. For example, in my home country, Nigeria, people see Trump as a big racist. He is actually a very intelligent man. He knows what he is doing.

Another important observation is that bitter, abusive and angry campaigns are the new normal in democracies. This is actually where my fear is for my home country. My country was able to manage the last presidential elections because of Goodluck Jonathan’s maturity, but there are some doubts if we can manage future elections. The APC might be afraid to hand over to the PDP because of the way they are now treating the PDP. The Deputy Senate President, who is a member of the opposition and is being prosecuted for forgery, just told the APC that they should remember that power doesn’t last forever.

This new normal of divisive electioneering could be regarded as Donald Trump’s strong point. The man enjoys and flourishes in controversies. And an election campaign which is overwhelmed with insults would always miss discussing the important issues. The winner of the street fights might win the elections. Trump is no stranger to street fights.

More importantly, this referendum has shown that free trade means little to some in the West. The Republicans know this and Trump knows this as well.

Global terrorism is changing the mindset of some in the West. Anti-establishment politicians are more likely to carry the day. Whoever thought Trump would go far?  Whoever thought Britain would leave the EU? A lot of polls didn’t think so. Though Trump still looks like the underdog, he will surprise analysts.

The ‘recession’ experienced in most Western countries is likely to endear many to eccentric politicians. Hardship doesn’t make anyone think properly. Here, Trump should also be careful because he is still among the top one percent that electorates loathe during ‘recessions’.

A final note to Nigerians: A Trump or Clinton presidency could have an effect on US-Africa relationship. US-Africa relationship might not change, no matter who wins. Some scholars believe that US-Africa relationship prospered in Obama’s administration. But, a Trump presidency might also benefit Africans. He will surely get jealous of China’s new role in Africa and try to outdo them in Africa.

Lest I forget, Trump didn’t say nor mean some of those things circulating on social media in Nigeria.

ONE PREDICTION WHICH HAS JUST COME TRUE

On the 10th of June, in an article titled, “’Probability of a meaningful dialogue with the militants looks dim’’, published in the TheCable newspaper, I predicted that a meaningful dialogue with the militants will be very difficult. This prediction was after the President announced that he was ready for dialogue.

One of the major reasons I gave was that there were so many militant groups, and harmonizing their demands would be very difficult for any government.

The President just said the same thing. A few days ago, President Buhari asked some APC leaders to help him beg the militants.

Quoting TheCable newspaper: ‘’He said the militants were in possession of sophisticated equipment, adding that unlike the Boko Haram sect which has one faction, the militants are in so many groups, suggesting that government has been having challenges relating with them’’.