UK elections and lessons for Nigeria

On Thursday, July 4, 2024, the United Kingdom will hold elections for the 650 parliamentary seats in the House of Commons. It is one of the more than 80 countries where elections are being held this year, in a list that includes some of the world’s biggest democracies. Barring any major shock, the Labour Party, led by Sir Keir Starmer, is expected to grab a majority of the seats, making it the first Labour government in 14 years.

Nearly all the polls have placed the Tories behind the Labour Party. Research and data analytics firm YouGov, in its latest poll results, predicts the Tories are likely to slump to the lowest number of seats since the party was formed. The polls place Labour ahead of the Tories with an over 200-seat majority. Alternatives like the Liberal Democrats, led by Sir Ed Davey and Nigel Farage’s Reform Party, are also expected to benefit from the Tories setback.

The UK is currently where Nigeria was in 2015, when it was anything but the ruling party. While I don’t particularly agree with all the propositions by Labour, I think it is in the nature of humans to seek change, and this is why the election is already a fait accompli. In any case, the Tories misfortune was long foretold—14 years of chaos, which reached its height with the folly of Boris Johnson and the ineptitude of Liz Truss. Without attempting to exonerate Sunak for the near total chaos, it appears that by the time he took charge in October 2022, the die had long been cast, and there was only so much he could do to change the situation.

Since the austerity of 2010, Brexit, COVID-19, and the Russia-Ukraine crisis, it has been a long and hard 14 years of Tory leadership. In retrospect, I believe that leaving the European Union (EU) and losing access to the EU single market, which previously allowed the UK free movement of goods and services with other EU countries, has been at the centre of the chaos. The situation was also not helped by the COVID-19 pandemic, which struck around the same time, and a war in Ukraine, which led to sky-high inflation and an unprecedented cost of living crisis. In response, the Bank of England has had to raise interest rates, which has impacted the cost of borrowing and mortgages.

Despite these social, political, and economic challenges, the pre-election campaigns have managed to stand out, demonstrating what is possible and offering an important lesson for emerging democracies like Nigeria. Since the day the Prime Minister announced the date for the election, campaigns by the political parties have been dominated by real issues and big ideas on the economy, the cost-of-living crisis, the National Health Service (NHS), immigration, climate action, and deepening public trust. They have managed to offer a clear roadmap on how they intend to address these issues if they are elected.

Even in situations where the proposals are considered outlandish or simply unrealistic, the parties still attempt to explain their thinking and continue to engage the public with their proposals. This practice is quite different from what you would see in Nigeria, where campaigns are never about real issues or big ideas; they are always about simple considerations like religion and ethnicity. Where they are charitable enough, they make it about slogans and rhetoric, but never substance or the issues that matter.

Apart from running a completely issue-based campaign, the leaders of the political parties have also been accountable by staying engaged in public debates and engagements to sell their ideas. This is unlike Nigeria, where people could win elections without attending a single debate or media engagement. In the last 4 weeks, Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer have featured in the ITV debate, the battle for number 10, a Sky News leaders special held in Grimsby, and a BBC question time leaders special at the University of York. If you have watched any of the public engagements, you would probably agree that they are unabashed and unsparing. I sometimes feel some sympathy for the political leaders when they are grilled like school boys, but this is the beauty of democracy and the power of democracy in action. I think this also highlights the frontline role of the media in setting agendas and shaping conversation.

Another important lesson for Nigeria is how campaign manifestos are fully costed and funded. The political parties provide a detailed cost implication of their proposals and highlight where the money would come from. They explain how the government intends to raise revenue for their ambitious plans, either through new borrowings or by raising taxes. This is different from the situation in Nigeria, where political parties present manifestos that are bland and scant on details. They also fail to provide the cost and funding for their plans, this should no longer be acceptable. Political parties must back their proposals with costs and funding details.

Whatever the outcome of the UK elections, it is certain that the elections have enriched public discourse and strengthened British democracy. Emerging democracies like Nigeria can adapt some of the key learnings from this election. Nigerian leaders must not only watch; they must also take along the positives from the UK election, especially those of accountability, big ideas, and empirical proposals.

Awogbenle, a development and public policy professional, writes from the UK. He can be reached via [email protected].