The ultimate battle for Yemi Osinbajo’s political destiny

Oluyemi Oluleke Osinbajo. I have followed this professor of law for nearly a decade, and I’ve admired him from a distance all the while. When he came up in discussions with friends back at the University of Ibadan, I’d defend him like my father – especially at a time when he was largely “unknown”. 

In 2011, when General Muhammadu Buhari was contesting for president a third time and chose Tunde Bakare, the fiery preacher, as his running mate, I supported the ticket. My friends would always challenge me, and ask: “What is a pastor doing in politics?” I had a prepared answer; when the righteous rule, the people rejoice. Based on my understanding at the time, I believed both men had the righteous indignation Nigeria needed.

I would then go on to talk about a Pastor Yemi Osinbajo who was commissioner for justice in Lagos state and reformed the system to the resounding applause of the Nigerian legal system, the United Nations, and many international institutions.

Many of my friends at the time did not know the man, so my illustrations always made little sense – all they respected was my vast knowledge of the subject matter.

OSINBAJO, TINUBU AND THE TEST OF CHARACTER

John N. Paden, President Muhammadu Buhari’s biographer, tried to rewrite the history of 2015 general election by saying Buhari handpicked Osinbajo from a list that had both Babatunde Fashola, and Bola Tinubu, former governors of Lagos state on it.

“When the three names were forwarded to Buhari, he chose Osinbajo despite enormous pressure from Tinubu,” Paden wrote.

Of course, Tinubu wanted to be vice-president, Buhari would have preferred Fashola, but he had a duty to  choose a Christian to “balance” the ticket.

A top government official once narrated to me how the whole political drama that led to Osinbajo’s emergence went down in one of the state government houses in Abuja. The official said Tinubu wanted to be the vice-president, but Buhari declined because Tinubu is a Muslim. The meetings went back and forth before Osinbajo was finally nominated.

One thing was also clear at the time: Tinubu trusts Osinbajo and sees him as a very loyal partner. Osinbajo also has never given the first popular Jagaban of Borgu any reason to doubt his loyalty. After Paden’s book hit the Nigerian airwaves, a plot was unofficially declared for Osinbajo to support his new boss – Buhari, or go with his old boss, Tinubu. Whichever one he chose, he was sure to step on toes.

With immense wisdom and tact, Osinbajo did not rush to say who nominated him. He initially declined questions seeking that information. Later, he said somebody somewhere nominated me for vice-president, and after a good wait, Osinbajo finally said Tinubu nominated him.

Many Nigerians see Tinubu as that “corrupt” politician who is tactical and gets things done, not minding the moral questions of how he got the things done. Some respect him for it; others loathe him for such ingenuity.

With Osinbajo as a loyalist to this “corrupt” politician, and a director at one of his major companies alleged to be taking a particular percentage of Lagos state revenue, the professor and pastor’s character has been called to question many times. But somehow, he always comes out “innocent”. During the build-up to 2015 elections, when the “Lion of Bourdillion, Nigeria’s biggest landlord after the federal government” documentary was being aired to dent Tinubu’s image, the party sponsoring the documentary threatened to run such documentary on Osinbajo.

He ran to court and sought an injunction to stop the documentary on him, before it ever got out. At this point, one of my bosses concluded the man also has things to hide – he is not clean. Clean or unclean, he became vice-president and the focus shifted from cleanliness to competence. Is he competent?

SGF AND THE ULTIMATE TEST OF OSINBAJO’S POLITICAL DESTINY

While Buhari was away on a medical vacation for 49 days, Osinbajo led the nation as the acting president. Within this short period he got so much applause nationally and internationally for his performance. Though the debates were not too deep, the narratives by Daily Trust, The Economist, Financial Times, and a host of other newspapers put Osinbajo in the image of a competent president.

Hence, the speculations around an Osinbajo presidency come 2019. Premature in my opinion, but the vice-president can have a real shot at the race.

Since he got back, Buhari has been on the low – recuperating. Osinbajo has also been less in the media as “acting president”, but has had to represent the president on numerous occasions including at the federal executive council meeting.

At the last week’s meeting, which failed to hold, Buhari put out a strong message via Femi Adesina, announcing the suspension of Babachir Lawal, the secretary general of the federation (SGF) and Ayo Oke, DG of the National Intelligence Agency (NIA). The vice-president has since been handed the hammer to nail Lawal, a staunch Buhari loyalist, and a “honoured” member of the presidency cabal.

In the moral court of the land, Oke and Lawal are guilty as charged. But the law may have a different stance, since its conclusion is based on evidence available. Osinbajo, as a senior advocate of Nigeria (SAN), is obligated to follow the law, and not the moral court of the Nigerian people.

If he gets enough evidence to nail Lawal and Oke, great! This strengthens the people’s trust in him and brightens his political destiny for 2019 — if Buhari decides not to run. If his committee fails to convict Lawal in particular, Osinbajo will erode, drastically, the trust of the people in him, and harm his chances.

This may not be his ultimate test eventually, but it is for now. A conviction for Buhari’s loyalist and a member of the presidency cabal will restate Osinbajo’s integrity, boost anti-corruption was and win him a hallowed seat in the moral court of the land and the hearts of the Nigerian people.