Understanding President Buhari’s mindset

I am sure you must have missed Pastor Ashimolowo’s advice to the President if you are not one of his ardent followers. The amiable Pastor advised President Buhari not to focus more than 20% of his time on looking at the past (for example, pursing past perceived looters) because this could affect governance. I do not know if it was the Spirit that revealed this to Pastor or if he was just giving his personal opinion. However, for the purpose of this thesis, I assumed it was not the Spirit. If it were the Spirit, I cannot question the works of the Spirit – I am just a mere mortal. In fact, in the words of the legendary Wale Adenuga, a pencil in the hands of the creator. Let me state here that I admire Pastor and that if I were not a Catholic I would have been worshiping in his church.

For those of you who have carved a career in studying the body languages of presidents, have you been studying the body languages of Buhari’s key appointees? The likes of Babatunde Fashola, SAN and Abubakar Malami, SAN. This is what we do in engineering. If you try reading a topic in a book written by a British professor and you don’t understand, try reading same topic in an Indian book. Reading the body languages of Buhari’s key men might just give you the insight you need in understanding Buhari’s body language. In studying these key appointees, it is important to start studying them from the time they started working for Buhari (please not before). There is no need to study all Buhari’s present appointees because some of them might not believe in his fight against corruption. They might be gaming the president! A lot of People do not believe either. The masses are excited but the elites are skeptical.

In this article, I will argue that Buhari believes that his economic agenda, plan and vision for Nigeria can only be achieved through his fight against corruption. Also, for those who feel his fight is targeted at some perceived enemies, I have a good news for you. For Pastor Ashimolowo, I am sorry Buhari might not take your advice. For economists who believe that, though, corruption is a problem but Buhari should give the world a clear economic agenda and set up an economic crack team, I have a sad news for you in this article.

In 2015, in a press conference in New Delhi, the President told the audience that he would like to be remembered for fighting corruption to a standstill in Nigeria. He did not say he would like to be remembered as the man who made sure Nigeria hoisted its flag on the moon or the man who quadrupled a country’s GDP in 4 years. Or as the man who fought Boko Haram to a standstill. Though, my analysis tells me he would like to do these things as well.  What an ambitious wish to fight corruption to a standstill! If you are like my friend, Paul, who is a Jehovah’s Witness, I know you believe that corruption can only come to a standstill in God’s Kingdom. Jehovah’s Witnesses believe this and can support it with biblical verses. But for Buhari, nothing is impossible. His mind is already made up. At least this is what my analysis tells me. There is one major thing that made him make up his mind.

Remember during the campaign, some media outlets quoted Buhari as saying that if he becomes president he would not look back at past corruption cases. He would draw a line and make sure corruption is fought from when he resumes office. This gave him some more supporters from the elites. If he actually said this, he has since changed his mind. He changed his mind the day he entered into office and met a depleted treasury. My analysis tells me he was very sad because he really wanted to make an impact. He quickly travelled to America to see if he could get the Americans help in repatriating some of the country’s funds abroad. He knows that it is not easy repatriating stolen funds – even lawyers might take a chunk of it as fees. But, he is not deterred, he is a man of faith. He has seen that oil prices are falling, with no signs of recovery, he would continually need to bail out most States in Nigeria. He has bailed out some States and would not like to do it again. He looked at Nigeria’s tax regime and revenue collection and decided to make them more efficient.

I am sure he is worried because some of the best brains, who have access to him, have told him that it is going to be very difficult. Even one of his pals, a respected economist and banker, has given him reasons why he needs to devalue the Naira. But he doesn’t want to. He is a patriot, a full-blooded Nigerian who takes pride in his currency. He said, in his last media chat, that he has not been convinced that devaluing the Naira will help Nigeria. Buhari’s economics is not rusty. He made some very valid points in that argument about devaluation. Never mind some respected commentators decided to feast on some comments he made on Nnamdi Kanu and Mr Sambo Dasuki, he really needs some money. He needs to fix the North East. He hasn’t got the luxury of time. These people gave him 95% votes, he knows this, and has even said it in some fora.

In research, if you propose a theory, then you need to validate it. The theory here is the relationship between the President’s comments and the way his mind works. Now, let me validate mine. Some of his key appointees have told the country that Nigeria has a lot of money stashed abroad and that these monies have to come back. Mr. Fashola said this in his senate confirmation. Some of his ministers have recently restated this. This is because they have keyed into Buhari’s agenda. To succeed in an establishment, you have to imbibe the culture and philosophy of that establishment. I pity those ministers who try to insinuate that it will be an odious task fighting corruption. They have valid points because they believe that even members of their own party are corrupt. Buhari will surely ask these folks this simple question: ‘if we don’t fight corruption how are we going to get money to work’. He has been advised by some respected Nigerians to accept the monies being returned by some people who might have looted the treasury and let them go and sin no more. He might not have a problem with that, but he has to be sure he will not be shortchanged. So, he needs to go to court.

Buhari is not a wicked man, even if he was, he has repented. He insinuated it in London at Chatham House – he is a born again democrat. Can’t you see his lovely smiles, LOL? Humor aside, he needs money. Remember he allowed his aides collect a Christmas card on his behalf from one of the people being tried for corruption. The court cases will not be easy. For the opposition, the truth and reconciliation panel they recommended might finally be what he might adopt. For economists, Buhari believes that if he gets those stolen money he can manage it well. He does not really need you if he has money and blocks all leakages, he can develop Nigeria. This sounds funny to me. But, that is the result my models have given me in my research. Reports have it that he told party members to look inwards for funds because appointments might not go round. He needs money so he is cutting down on political jobs. Besides, if Nigeria is corruption-free genuine investors will have more confidence in Nigeria and come in – this makes sense. For Pastor, I hope you see why the President seems to be putting a lot of effort looking at the past. Buhari honestly wishes to transform Nigeria, I hope he succeeds.

There are other things my research discovered about President Buhari which are in the full thesis, it cannot be here, since this is just a synopsis. Finally, just like in any research, there might be some gaps in my thesis probably because I misinterpreted some of my results. I think my research has contributed to knowledge because, there are some models in my work which can predict Buhari. For example, my model tells me he is excited about using technology to fight corruption and strengthening our institutions. Please don’t ask me who my supervisors are!