What a Trump or Biden victory means to Nigeria

Americans go to the presidential elections on Tuesday November 3, against the grim realities of the Covid-19 pandemic which has already claimed over two hundred thousand lives, and a flagging economy which has recorded massive job losses and resultant employment.

The two contestants in the race, the incumbent President Donald Trump of the Republican party and his challenger, former Senator and Vice President Joe Biden of the Democratic party, have made the two issues the main theme of their campaign pitch to the American voters.

From all accounts the election promises to record a huge voter turn-out as Americans worried about the prevailing desperate conditions of their country are determined to make their voices heard through the ballot on how the challenges should be handled.
By the reckoning of most commentators and observers of the prevailing mood among the American voters, the elections are all about how president Trump has handled the affairs of the country in the course of the four years he has been in office from 2016 when he got elected into office.

He came to power beating Hilary Clinton, former first Lady and Secretary of State in an election that many had not expected him to win, bearing in mind that he was a political outsider with little or no record of previous public office experience. But his campaign message of ‘’America first’’ held great appeal especially to blue collar Americans in the so-called rust belt, the industrial areas of America where millions of workers had lost their jobs as a result of factory closures from tough competition from China. His campaign promises to take on the Chinese for ‘’stealing’’ American jobs through what he considered cheap labour practises and dumping of Chinese goods on the American market resonated positively among these category of American voters.

Trump message also appealed to the so-called moral guardians of American values. These are the Bible carrying Americans of the far right political persuasion who believed the liberal values of the President Barack Obama administration which encouraged and supported such issues as gay rights, abortions and restrictions on access to guns were antithetical to true American values. Trump also found favour among the political tendencies of the ‘’Deep South’’; this being the belt of states in the southern part of the United States of America who by tradition and habit are against people of colour. Trump’s pledge to severely restrict immigration, deport immigrants and especially build a wall across the border with the Republic of Mexico to the south to prevent illegal immigration into the United States greatly appealed to the ‘’red necks’’ of this area of the country.

It was a combination of these forces and tendencies that collaborated to thrust Trump into power in 2016. But the flip side of Trump’s campaign pledges became manifest almost as soon as he took office. Allegations soon surfaced that President Trump’s victory at the polls was aided by underhand assistance from Russia, considered by many in America as the country’s bitterest global foe. The national security implications of Russia determining not just the outcome but helping to install the President of the United States of America greatly alarmed guardians of the country’s security and defence superstructure. The investigations into this issue have dogged the Trump presidency greatly tainting its credibility.

And then came the Covid-19 pandemic. Needless to say that Trump’s dithering on the issue when it first broke out around the world with thousands of fatalities recorded caught up with him. When the pandemic hit America it found the country unprepared and thousands of fatalities were soon recorded as the health services all over the country were soon overwhelmed.

President Trump’s Challenger, Joe Biden has ridden on the backlash of what many Americans have come to consider as a crisis ridden, divisive and dysfunctional Trump presidency. It greatly helps Biden’s cause that president Trump in the course of his four years in office has alienated large swathes of American society who detest his lack of decorum and decency in his public and private conduct; his clearly racist inclination and his disconcerting tendency to seek to bend and even break extant rules in pursuit of private gain.
Many Americans even among those that supported him to become the president in 2016 consider him an embarrassment to the exalted office he occupies and to the well-known values and image of America around the world.

All these are factors that have worked to the advantage of his challenger who needs only to stitch and keep together the coalition of those who feel greatly led down by president Trump to win. And true enough this has been the thrust of Joe Biden’s campaign around the country which seems simple and clear enough to the voters.

Gauging the mood of Americans and the results of the various opinion polls conducted right across the spectrum of the country, it is very likely that president Trump is on his way out. Still the final verdict on who between the two should be elected to run the affairs of America on Tuesday, rests with the American voter. And as happened in the 2016 presidential elections, there might just be a sudden twist to tip the scales.

For us in Africa and particularly Nigeria, the issue that should be paramount in our minds is what we can expect from any of the two as president of the United States of America. Within America the two main political parties try to pursue policies reflecting the ideology of their membership when in power; the Republican party is known to cater for the establishment class of people; the entrenched well-heeled mostly white elite of the country. The Democratic party on the other hand appeals mostly to the less privileged in society, the minorities and the liberal elements.

But regardless of which political party is in power, American policies to the outside world are principally guided by the country’s abiding interests. Any deviation from this may just be down to the personal disposition of whoever is the president and may not necessarily alter fundamentally the overarching thrust of American policy.

For Africa and Nigeria we already know what president Trump is through his pronouncements, calling African countries ‘shitholes’. Indeed from his negative if not racist disposition and treatment of his own African-American compatriots we are left in no doubt that president Trump regards Africans generally with condescending indifference.

Somehow president Trump seems to have it in for Nigerians. Nigerians have not forgotten that during his campaign in the US state of Alaska in his first coming, he reportedly singled out a lone black person in the crowd and railed against him prejudicially saying he believed he was a Nigerian who would have taken a job meant for Americans.

In his tenure, he had identified rather unfairly and lumped Nigerians among countries whose Nationals were to be deported en masse and denied visa. This prompted counter comments and reports from respected American personalities and media like CNN from verified research that indeed Nigerians were the most educated segment of the American population holding on average a Masters degree and are among the most hardworking and diligent employees in America.

But conversely despite all this, president Trump maintains cordial and warm personal relationship with our president Buhari for whom he has nice words, invited and received him warmly at the White House. On a bilateral level president Trump unlike his predecessor president Obama supports Nigeria’s war on terror with the approval of the sale of 22 Tucano ground attack planes.
But on the whole however all this could be put down as gestures reflecting the personal disposition of president Trump. In themselves they do not amount to any significant sea change in either the general disposition of president Trump to Africa and Nigeria, or the overarching US policy on Africa which is to give the continent a short shrift due to its comparative insignificance to the economic and strategic interests of the America.

A win for Biden will certainly result in some positive dispositional changes in regard and behaviour towards Africa and Nigeria. Biden was Vice President to president Obama whose administration was favourably disposed and worked towards bringing president Buhari to power. Biden would definitely not be brash and brusque to Africans in his choice of words and general disposition. He may not change the general policy thrust of America to Africa and Nigeria, but he will take a gentler and more nuanced approach on issues that concern Africa and Nigeria that comes to his attention.

In this regard, he is likely to ease some of the tough immigration measures pursued by Trump even if he will not totally abolish the deportation policy. And unlike Trump depending on how Nigeria makes its presentation, a Biden administration may not turn deaf ears to requests for humanitarian assistance for Covid-19 and internally displaced persons resulting from insurgency, banditry and terrorism among others assistance.

On the whole though, as America grapples with its own issues with the Covid-19 and its flagging economy, we should not expect any of the two dwell much on solving Africa’s or Nigeria’s problems. Nigeria with all its endowments should not always expect to live on the charitable disposition of others for what it can do to itself.