What Festus Odimegwu didn’t say about coups

Nigerians have been to hell and back, in the hands of their leaders. Metaphorically, that is. And if you are old enough to remember the circumstances which motivated the military to bring down the Second Republic in 1983, you will not be too surprised by the seemingly insane suggestion by the self-styled Eze Festus Odimegwu that a coup is just what we need now. In his usual no-holds-barred, some say brash manner, the erstwhile managing director and chief executive officer of Nigerian Breweries Plc, in a THISDAY interview, poured out his heart on the urgent and desperate challenges facing Nigerians.

The former chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC) also poured vituperations on the political class and their cohorts in business for pushing Nigeria to the brink of social and economic upheaval, deserving of the meddlesome attention of military. What the fiercely intelligent first-class Chemistry graduate of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, did not say was that the military have neither the will nor ability to overthrow the government of the day and lead Nigeria out of its current precarious position at the edge of the precipice staring far down at the little gap between the luciferous demons and the deep blue sea.

So the issue is not so much whether his call was patriotic or not. It’s also not about how the Federal Government will react to it. And definitely, it is not whether the prevailing circumstances justify his position or not. The issue here is whether the military as it is today is in a good frame of mind, with the right human resources and a salubrious atmosphere both locally and globally to carry out a coup d’état. Personally, I wager that the military can NOT and (will NOT) do it for reasons I will outline presently.

The military has been professionalized to the point of political indoctrination such that planning and executing coups no longer feature in their dreams, much less academic curriculum. Considering the way they were disgraced out of power in 1999, after the better forgotten wasteful and wasted years of President Ibrahim Babangida and General Sani Abacha, the military will certainly not moot such an idea. Now, it must be placed on record that the era referred to was not as bad as what we have today, but it was during a period of so much promise, when the whole world grew economically and technologically. Like drunken sailors, we frittered away our chances and our money too, and by the time IBB and Abacha were done with tinkering with the polity and the politicians, the train had passed our station.

Secondly, there is this famous fable regarding one of the most famous coup plotters in Nigeria, IBB. As the story goes, he was traveling with a group of young officers and while he was going to the toilet, he observed one of them reading a book entitled: “How to plan a successful coup”. Himself an experienced coup plotter, a grandmaster of sorts, stopped by on his way back to his seat and advised the guy to cram the whole chapter 9 of the book when he gets there. And chapter 9 was: “The Consequences of coup plotting”. This may sound funny, but anybody who plans a coup in the current dispensation of social media will surely be caught and the consequences are well-known. In those days, people could hide behind our low-tech, even no-tech, life to plan and execute coups and other crimes, but those days are gone with smartphones and GPS and advanced listening technology. Every military man in the country is wired. Period!

More importantly, Nigerians, frustrated as they may be with our clueless leaders, are better off with civilian democracy. The freedom of speech and other freedoms associated with democracy are so priceless that nobody would want to trade them for a military leadership, even if benevolent dictatorship-if there’s anything so called. Sad memories of the military era, especially during the inglorious days of Gen. Sani Abacha, still evoke angst and trepidation among the populace. It is impossible that anybody (except perhaps, those who hope to profit from it) will actually want the military out of their barracks and back into the government houses. Without a doubt, we will be turning back the hands of the clock, if we ever go that route. We will lynch anybody who attempts to overthrow our hard-earned freedom.

Besides, who says the military are trained to rule? Of course, they are not! They are trained to protect the security and territorial integrity of a country. So, each and every time they made an incursion into political leadership has been aberrant. While one is not saying that military men are incapable of leadership (because some of them are extremely intelligent and capable), the fact remains the military institution is not a political organization and can, therefore, not cope with the demands of political authority without dire consequences for their constitutional role, as stated elsewhere.

Nigeria is currently grappling with insurgency, a situation most Nigerians, including the military, never bargained for and, therefore, never prepared for. So far, the military has shown commendable courage in dealing with a situation they weren’t trained for. Most of the mistakes they have made in the course of tackling the Boko Haram scourge have been due to lack of knowledge and adequate preparation. Indeed, can there ever be anything like adequate preparation? Even in Iraq and Afghanistan, the military, with massive human and material support from Allied Forces led by the United States, have struggled and is still struggling. So, the Nigerian military have got a huge task at hand that is threatening to seriously challenge, and hopefully not undermine, their professional competence and constitutional roles and responsibilities. How then can these folks plan a coup?

Even in the face of these indisputable factors against a military coup, Eze Odimegwu was right in raising the alarm. The country is under siege, and the people are petrified. There seems to be a dire sense of foreboding that something bad is about to happen. The dynamics of the relationship between the military and the politicians don’t look very good, at least on paper. Nigerians have a funny feeling that things are not going smoothly with regards to how the politicians, who are constitutionally the senior partners, are managing their relationship with the military. Recently, in the Asian country of Thailand the military had to step forward to “rescue” the deteriorating political situation, and that was a clear danger signal to everybody in a fledgling democracy around the world-including Nigeria. Security of lives and property as well as territorial integrity is crucial for national unity and development. That is not happening here right now.

Economically, the statistics spewed ever so frequently by the government and the stark realities of the standard of living of the people is indeed a laughable conundrum. As the president quite rightly said, Nigeria is a very rich country but how to redistribute the wealth between the extremely rich people and the millions of extremely poor is the problem. One is even hard pressed to question the sources of this roaring wealth of the very rich few. What comes to mind, most of the time, are funds stolen from our collective patrimony by politicians and the nouveau riche, who flaunt their ill-gotten wealth while the rest of us watch helplessly. Some of these crimes and the criminals are well known to the people, yet nobody seems to be going against them according to the law. Suddenly, it seems to be culturally permissible to steal public funds because such people appear to be highly regarded and ever so preferred for public office and public acclaim. In short, there are neither legal nor social consequences for being a criminal, except for those allegedly wasted extra-judicially by the police.

At a time like this, lyrics of Bob Marley’s “Natural Mystic” keep flooding my head. “There’s a natural mystic blowing in the air…this must be the first trumpet, might as well be the last…may more will have to suffer; many more will have to die…don’t ask me why. Things are not the way they used to be. I won’t tell no lies…” These words are so powerful and so telling with all that is happening across the country. The level of insecurity is so frightening that simple-minded folks can erroneously think that their safety can best be guaranteed under a military leadership. Such a mindset is dangerous, and that is the kind of thinking that is pervasive around the country which is sadly dominated by simple-minded people.

The political class and the military must urgently close ranks and brainstorm over how best to reassure the people of Nigeria that they are both working for the same purpose in the interest of the people. Otherwise, the tension in the land could lead to statements like those of Eze Odimegwu, which is undoubtedly weighty and “could fire the blood of ordinary man and turn pre-ordinace and first decree into the law of children” (apologies to William Shakespeare).

*Oparah contributed this piece from Lagos.