What happens if Tinubu loses?

The political space in Nigeria is for the strong-hearted. Make a slip, and you are barefaced on the floor. So hard would be the fall that standing up amounts to an elephant passing through the eye of a needle. The General Elections have been won and lost, but the rhythm of its after-effects has refused to fade into thin air. Two candidates who lost are laying claim to the throne already occupied by the winner. It presents a mystic case, and how it pans out is best left imagined.

I have been a strong admirer of President Bola Tinubu for inexplicable reasons. I have insinuated that he deserves scholarly work on leadership and strategy in political participation in Nigeria. He has earned his stripes. It must be accepted, and he must be respected.

He doesn’t have a duplicate in the political history of Nigeria. His style is unique and audacious. Underestimate him at your peril. He waits for you at the destination even before you commence the journey. These features culminated when he was sworn in as President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. This is the reality.

Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is a front-runner and the master drummer. He stands a chance because he was the first runner-up. He polled 6,984,520 votes. No doubt, it was a brilliant outing despite the challenge of losing five governors (G5). A move that would go down in history as a horrible political calculation.

What was he thinking? What made him think one was more significant than five? That was hallucination at its peak. I still have goosebumps whenever I think about the blunder. We are products of our choices, but we often blame it on others or some supernatural forces.

Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) is a cool guy and a businessman whose foray into politics was more dramatic than we have now. He claims to know what politics is about. For him, it is about plus and minus. He doesn’t think times and divides are essential—his learning curve.

Peter Obi doesn’t know how to drum, but he is the one dancing more. Funny, his dance steps do not flow with the rhythm. But a section of the crowd of jesters and irredentists are cheering him on.

He polled 6,101,533 votes to emerge 2nd runner-up. 2,693,193 votes behind President Bola Tinubu. What is his case? Assumptions and illogical conclusions. He persisted in an echo chamber of his own creation – he and his followers heard the continuous feedback of the lies they told themselves in an eternal loop. It is dangerous when you mistake assumptions for reality. It could lead to depression because you end up basking in a fleeting euphoria.

Certificate and identity crisis has gained momentum. Atiku Abubakar sojourned to the United States of America to ask for an academic transcript. It generated debates, and in the eventuality, nothing substantial came out. Some say it was a wild goose chase. They may be right. I do not see the sense in the endeavour. It was more an attempt to stay relevant than to prove a point.

I wasn’t surprised that Peter Obi, who seemed uninterested, became interested. His press conference spoke volumes. The question is, what happens if Tinubu loses? Who does the throne belong to? Very intriguing. It tells the story of confusion, whims, and caprices.

Do I see President Bola Tinubu losing the throne? Not a possibility. The argument is not adding. It needs to be clarified. But the handlers of Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi would hear none of that. I don’t know what propels them. Maybe strange forces.

President Bola Tinubu is a chief. He is the “Asiwaju” of Lagos and the “Jagaban” of Borgu Emirate in Niger State. Asiwaju is “the one who leads.”. Jagaban is ” a leader of warriors”. How odd that he bears both titles. It implies that he is not a pushover.

He has been upstanding for the past 16 years. The issues currently making the rounds have been over-flogged. Atiku Abubakar knows this. But Peter Obi doesn’t because he is not contemporaries with President Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar. He is dancing more, but he is not the drummer.

That sums up the Obident ideology of hinging something on nothing. I dare not say this on any of the social media platforms. There is a web of venomous spiders that would encircle you in seconds—the mob mentality.

Atiku Abubakar is just having fun. He has exhausted his arsenal. The strategy now is to mislead as many as possible. Peter Obi leads the fray. Is Atiku Abubakar succeeding? The answer is yes. Peter Obi held a press conference that confirmed it. The question now is, what is the crux of Peter Obi? Elections were manipulated, or President Bola Tinubu forged certificates?

This is the motive of Atiku Abubakar. Maybe he is acting in a script. The man is also a veteran. He has earned his stripes. It is better to deal with him with a long spoon. I hope President Bola Tinubu knows this. This is not the time to take chances. It is a slippery floor—too many banana peels. I don’t see President Bola Tinubu losing. There is no case to answer. They are just wasting our time on sensations. The refusal to accept the reality is bland.

I hope with these few words of mine, I have been able to convince you and not confuse you.

Ocheja, a Military Historian and Doctoral Researcher, can be reached via [email protected]