When will a woman rule Nigeria?

In one of the articles, a political science writer speculated on which of America’s politically marginalized groups would be the first to produce a president, long monopolized by male White Anglo-Saxon Protestants. Would a woman, he asked, become US president before a black, another PhD holder, another Roman Catholic, aNative American or a Jew?He did not mention Hispanics because they were not a major demographic force in the US at that time. 

He said “another” Ph D holder because even though the US has millions of Ph D holders, only one of them, Woodrow Wilson, ever became president.That was during World War I. He said “another” Roman Catholic because John F. Kennedy was the only Roman Catholic who ever became US President, by the narrowest of election margins in 1960. Thirty-twoyears after that article appeared, the marginalized groups’ race was won, most improbably, by blacks,when Barrack Obama was elected US President in 2008. 

Fourteen years earlier, when Democratic Party’s candidate Walter Mondale chose Mrs. Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate, there was much excitement in the media that she was the first female running mate of a major party and she was also Roman Catholic. Their ticket however lost by the widest of margins. Four years later Democrats fielded Michael Dukakis, a Greek Orthodox Christian, as their candidate. He lost to George Bush Senior by a wide margin. The nearest Jews came to clinching the US Presidency was in 1964, when Republicans fielded Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona. He lost to President Lyndon Johnson by a very wide margin. Women almost made it in 2016 but Mrs. Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump, against all pundits’ expectations. 

I am just wondering: which one among Nigeria’s politically marginalized groups will be the first to make it to the presidency? Is it a woman, a youth, an academic, a cleric, adherent of a traditional religion, a left winger, a policeman, an Other Ranks soldier, a Diasporan, a naturalized citizen, a foreigner or an illiterate? You might also wish to add a major ethnic group, the Igbo, who were improbably beaten in the race by an ethnic minority Ijaw man.

At the onset of party primaries late last year, I saw a WhatsApp posting of an array of women all over the country who were seeking various positions under different parties. It was a dazzling array but in the end, few of them made any headway as governorship or senatorial candidates, despite “concessions” granted to them not to pay for nomination forms. The processes of Nigerian politics are heavily stacked against women, but the biggest problem is that Nigerian women are unable to band together to support female candidates.

Women have been deputy governors in several states including Lagos, Ekiti, Osun, Ogun, Plateau and Anambra. One of them, Dame Virgy Etiaba, governed Anambra State briefly when the governor was improperly impeached. In some cases there is a backward slide because Dr. Kayode Fayemi had a female deputy during his first term but he picked a male deputy for his second term.It will be interesting to know why. One woman, Mrs. Jummai Alhassan, made a serious effort to win the governorship of Taraba State in 2015. This time around the two major parties have not one female governorship candidate.As far as I remember, the only major presidential candidate that ever had a woman running mate in the last 40 years was PRP’s Malam Aminu Kano in 1983.

How about the youths? The Not Too Young To Run movement made a great splash in recent years.It even got the constitution amended to lower the eligible age for seeking high office. This did not however translate into big gains on the ground. Let’s remember that the youngest man ever elected US President was John F. Kennedy at 42. Nigerian youths prefer to remember the case of French President Emmanuel Macron, who was elected at 39. Trouble is, the on-going ‘yellow vest’ protests against him have taken the shine out of his age. 

Nigerian academics, too, must be wondering when it will be their turn at the top. That might be the antidote to ASUU strikes. Right now academics are within breathing distance with the Vice President being a university professor.On their own, professors do not often go very far in politics. In Nigeria, regular politicians look down upon academics who they see as out of touch with reality. Book knowledge is a liability in Nigerian politics, not an asset. Nigerian clerics too are waiting for their turn but given the religiously bifurcated nature of Nigeria, a cleric will be unviable as a presidential candidate. At state levels however, some clerics made headway e.g. Rev. Father Moses Adasu in Benue State in 1991 and Rev. Jolly Nyame in Taraba. Osun’s former governor Rauf Aregbesola is a closet cleric, as is Kano’s former governor Malam Ibrahim Shekarau. While a religiously inclined person could win a state governorship, many people will view him with suspicion in a presidential contest.

Adherent of a traditional religion is even more disadvantaged in Nigerian politics. In 2005 or so when President Obasanjo appointed Prof Wande Abimbola as Special Adviser on Cultural Affairs and Traditional Matters, a minor drama took place at his swearing-in during a FEC meeting. A protocol officer approached Abimbola, an Ifa priest and former Vice Chancellor of OAU, with a Qur’an and a Bible and asked him to choose one. Abimbola however raised his Ifa priest’s fly whisk and said he will swear by it. The NTA news cameraman caught President Obasanjo struggling to suppress a laugh while the drama unfolded. 

The way Nigerians in Diaspora fret these days and demand for a chance to vote in national elections, it will not be long before one of them contests for the presidency from abroad.Some Diasporans seem to think that they are best placed to rule this country because they have seen how things are done in other lands. They however seem to forget the old maxim that he who wears the shoe, knows where it pinches. 

Not only a Nigerian who resides abroad; we may one day find it useful to elect a non-Nigerian as president of Nigeria. Afterall, Adolf Hitler, who became Chancellor of Germany in 1933 and unleashed World War II, was an Austrian, not a German. One day a man from western Cameroon, southern Niger Republic, south-eastern Chad or eastern Benin Republic could become president of Nigeria, after assimilating into a neighbouring Nigerian tribe.

Then there is another marginalized group, the illiterates. Our Western-educated elite went so far as to write in the Constitution that one must have a WAEC certificate before he can seek any office. I am just wondering; in which corner of an SSCE certificate is wisdom embedded? Is it under the seal, in the top right-hand corner, or in-between the Registrar’s signature? Ok, since we began restricting the holding of public office to “educated” persons, what have we gained as a nation?  There is reason to believe that Nigerian voters do not care a hoot about certificates because too many people win elections, only for us to “discover” later that they do not have certificates. All the while, voters knew the truth.

I thank God that I have lived long enough to see the winner of the American marginalised groups’ race to the White House. Anyone who is alive 40 years from now might see which of the marginalized Nigerian groups wins the race to Aso Rock. 

This article was first published in Daily Trust.