Why Canadians and Nigerians would be interested in the US presidential election

As the world watches the upcoming U.S. presidential election on Tuesday, featuring candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, it’s important to recognize that while elections are fundamentally internal matters, their outcomes have far-reaching implications globally. Canadians and Nigerians have significant reasons to be invested in the results of this election.

While the race is between Kamala Harris, 60, the current vice-president, and Donald Trump, 78 there are other contestants in the race. Chase Oliver, 39, Jill Stein, 74, and Cornel West, 71, are also running. If Kamala wins, she will make history as the first woman and first woman of color to be elected president in America’s 248-year history. If Trump wins, he will also be making history as the oldest winner in history. Donald Trump is making make his third consecutive run for the White House.

Canada and the United States (U.S.) enjoy a unique relationship. Canada and the United States share a land border that is close to 9,000 km and is the longest international border in the world. There are 13 U.S. states, seven Canadian provinces and one territory along the border. Most Canadians – 2 out of 3 – live within 100 km of the border. It is estimated that around 400,000 people crossed the Canada-United States border every day and that there are about 800,000 Canadian citizens living in the United States. The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), serves to reinforce Canada’s strong economic ties with the U.S., as well as Mexico, and brings significant economic benefit to all three countries.

The United States (U.S.) and Nigeria also have a unique relationship. Nigeria is the United States’ second-largest trade partner and third-largest destination for U.S. foreign direct investment in Africa. Nigeria is also one of the top recipients of U.S. aid globally. Nigerians are the largest African diaspora group in the United States. The US Deputy Secretary of Treasury, Wally Adeyemo, is the highest-ranking Nigerian American official and highest-ranking member of the African diaspora in the Biden administration. He visited Nigeria in 2023. U.S firms Chevron and ExxonMobil are among the largest international oil companies (IOCs) active in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector. According to the 2022 American Community Survey, there are approximately 712,294 residents of Nigerian ancestry living in the U.S.

Kamala Harris has direct ties to Canada, having graduated from high school in Montreal. Her running mate for vice-president, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, also has strong connections to Canada. Minnesota shares an 885-km border with Ontario and Manitoba, and Canada is Minnesota’s largest customer, buying approximately US$7 billion in goods in 2023. In a 2020 Canada Day message, Walz said, “It is true that Canada and Minnesota share a border, and are therefore inherently bonded, but our friendship extends much deeper than that. Our relationship extends from private sector investments by Canadian companies that employ thousands of Minnesotans, to Minnesota-based companies that have invested across Canada.” Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, Donald Trump has no direct ties to Nigeria. However, many Africans still remember Mr. Trump’s alleged comments about “shithole” African countries.

Nigerians and Canadians have four key areas of concern:

1. Trade Relations

Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have a history of influencing trade policies between the U.S. and Canada. In 2019, Kamala Harris stated that she would not have voted for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), “I would not have voted for NAFTA, because I believe that we can do a better job to protect American workers,” Harris told CNN’s Jake Tapper in an interview on “State of the Union.” In January 2020, she announced her decision that “after careful study and consultation with environmental and conservation leaders, I have concluded that the USMCA’s environmental provisions are insufficient.” On the campaign trail, Trump has promised to impose 10 percent tariffs on all imports into the U.S., and 60 percent tariffs on goods from China, without mentioning any exceptions. For Canada, these policies directly impact economic stability and growth, as the U.S. is its largest trading partner. Nigeria, while not as directly tied to U.S. trade policies, could still feel the ripple effects through global market shifts and changes in trade dynamics.

2. Immigration Policies

The U.S. is home to a significant number of Canadians and Nigerians. Changes in immigration policies, including potential mass deportations, could have profound effects on these communities. Trump’s administration was known for its stringent immigration policies, which led to increased deportations and stricter visa regulations. Notably, President Trump imposed a travel ban on Nigeria in 2020, affecting many Nigerians. These restrictions also affected the visa application processes in Nigeria.

Canada may be affected of many people decide to leave the USA. For Canada, stricter U.S. immigration policies could result in an influx of refugees seeking asylum, adding pressure to Canada’s immigration system. Kamala Harris has proposed more inclusive immigration reforms, but the specifics remain to be seen. Nigeria, too, would be affected as many Nigerians in the U.S. might face uncertainty regarding their residency status.

3. Technological and Intellectual Support

The U.S. plays a pivotal role in the global exchange of technology, inventions, and intellectual property. Restrictions based on the deemed export law can limit the release of critical technologies and knowledge to other countries. The Export Administration Regulations (EAR) includes conditions to manage the release of technology to a foreign national. This includes visual inspection (such as reading technical specifications, plans, blueprints, etc.), oral technology exchanged or even mentoring ( See §734.2(b)(2) of EAR.)

Both Trump and Harris will have different approaches to handling these issues and laws. Trump’s administration may be more protective, often restricting technology exports to safeguard national security. Harris might adopt a more balanced approach, promoting innovation while ensuring security. These policies are crucial for Canada and Nigeria, as they rely on technological advancements and intellectual collaborations with the U.S. for development and innovation. This is more important because American companies in both Canada and Nigeria rely on technology from the USA.

4. Family and Business Ties

Many Canadians and Nigerians have deep-rooted family and business connections in the U.S. Any significant policy changes could disrupt these relationships and economic activities. For instance, changes in tax laws, business regulations, or healthcare policies could affect Canadians and Nigerians who own businesses or have family members in the U.S. The stability and prosperity of these individuals are closely tied to the political climate in the U.S., making the election outcomes highly relevant.

According to Pew, People in the U.S. sent $6.2 billion in remittances to Nigeria in 2017, more than was sent to any other African nation.

It could be a long wait before we know the winner of the election. The 2020 election took place on Tuesday 3 November, but we had to wait until Saturday 7 November before we knew Joe Biden as the winner. in 2016, we knew that Trump had won a day after the election while in 2012, we knew Barack Obama had won on the same day of the election. The longest wait in recent times was for the winner of the 7 November 2000 election between George W Bush and Al Gore. The winners were known only on 12 December.

In conclusion, while the U.S. Presidential election is an internal affair, its implications are global. Canadians and Nigerians should pay close attention to the policies and platforms of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, as the results will undoubtedly influence trade, immigration, technological exchange, and personal ties. The interconnectedness of today’s world means that the decisions made in the U.S. will resonate far beyond its borders, affecting lives and economies worldwide.

Fawehinmi is a consultant, author, speaker in leadership, human resources, diversity a dn inclusion.