Why Tinubu will win the 2023 presidential election

BY OPEOLUWA DAPO-THOMAS

In Nigeria, elections are a one-day event, while campaigning is a 6-month event but preparing to win an election takes years. It can take a decade of preparation. In every facet of life, fortune favours the prepared mind.

Alliances are forged over these years, mergers are made, investments are sown, structures are built and permutations are orchestrated. Based on the above, one man has the tide in his favour – Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressive Congress. 

Besides it is the turn of the South traditionally, The APC  has a broader path to victory on a National level than any other opposition party — and the road to 2023 is getting clearer with a week to go.

The snapshot above presents an interesting picture. The main opposition party, PDP, is losing steam as other parties have merged over the years to reduce its dominance and as of today, they are all united.  One man behind the alliances and mergers – Bola Ahmed Tinubu is ready to bask in the home run. The “light blue” region in the 2015 section that represents PDP has now been infiltrated by the blazing popularity of Peter Obi and now has APC Governors and strongholds. Although, PDP has wrestled some states in the “dark blue” zone. 

As the elections draw nigh, certain factors favour Bola Ahmed Tinubu – the APC is the ruling party, the south-west base is consolidated,  the opposition is divided internally and externally, and he has proven economic credentials that Nigeria is in dire need of – more than his other contenders. 

The starting point (Incumbent + SW factor)

One pivotal factor that helps political parties in elections is the incumbency factor. The president is in full support of his candidate and his influence in the North may turn out decisive as it diminishes the opposition’s northern advantage. The ruling party also boasts 21 governors across the country, the PDP has 14,  APGA has 1 and the Labor Party has none. The party also has the most senators and the house of representatives. In football, this is considered a home advantage. The candidate also has a base he is popular in and has support politically and ethnically from these regions. Oyo state and Osun state governed by opposition governors may create bottlenecks but luckily for him, he is the son of the soil in Osun and an internal crisis as a result of zoning conflicts in the PDP may see him get support in Oyo. 

Absence of a unified opposition

In 2019, the APC won the election against a strong united opposition. The PDP’s flagbearer was flanked by the current Labour party’s flagbearer with support from NNPP’s current flagbearer and still lost. Now they are no longer together and there are further divisions which we will discuss later. Make no mistake – this election can only be won by either of the two parties. The others will be instrumental in deciding the President directly (runoff) or indirectly (divided opposition). At least 11 polls have touted a victory for Peter Obi of the Labour party – understandably so. The LP candidate inspires hope but lacks structures, the PDP’s candidate does not inspire as much hope as the LP candidate as he cannot seem to shake off the corruption veil bestowed upon him since his days as a VP, however, he has structures that could see him push the elections to the line. 

The concessions (where Tinubu might lose marginally)

It is not going to be an easy ride for the APC. There are regions where the party has not been popular over previous election cycles, although they have made improvements marginally and politically in these areas. To explain the margins, we look at the percentage gains the APC made in two regions in which the opposition dominates. Across these 11 states, the APC had made improvements. Politically, they now have Governors in Imo, Cross River, and Ebonyi with strong stakes in Bayelsa if we count the election won by David Lyon in Bayelsa.

But luck is in the favour of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, borrowing biblical parlance, there are divisions in the enemy’s camp. 3 of the PDP governors in these regions are at loggerheads with the PDP leadership. Also, to add more woes to the PDP,  this region is the strong base of the dark horse in this race – Peter Obi.  In the words of Governor Soludo – “if I were Asiwaju Tinubu, I would even give Peter Obi money as someone heading one of the departments of his campaign because Obi is making Tinubu’s pathway to victory much easier by indirectly pulling down PDP. It is what it is!”

If you add the level of infrastructure delivered by the current administration to these regions and the two promises of Bola Ahmed Tinubu to dredge the ports and offer credit facilities in these regions to improve their business environment – the PDP might just be under pressure in their turf. 

The low-hanging fruit (Buhari and the Northern Governors)

The North will support Tinubu. President Buhari and the Northern governors are behind their man. The projections that the North would unanimously vote for the PDP’s candidate are somewhat distorted. Borno and Yobe are no-go areas as they are legacy states of the APC. Also, the Northern governors within the APC know that a potential win for PDP would ruin their personal presidential ambitions in 2031. Because right now, an Atiku presidency threatens the unwritten rule of a Southern leader taking over a Northerner leader and vice versa. So the APC Northern governors know that an 8-year rule of Buhari, followed by an 8-year rule of Atiku would make their ambitions unpalatable and injurious to the sovereignty of the country.

The spoilers (divided opposition)

The G5. The room for reconciliation is closed now. Wike has legally protected himself from any party suspension. The gloves are off now. If rumours of a deal with the G5 and the APC presidential candidate are true, a large number of votes PDP stood to gain within some G5 states will go all the way to the APC. In football, when two rival teams in similar positions go head-to-head, the match is usually called a 6-pointer – a scenario where you take 3 points home and deprive the losing team of 3 points as an additional incentive. The Integrity Group are not only choosing to campaign for their flagbearer, but they are also handing over 6 points to the ruling party. Remember, Peter Obi and Kwankwaso are cutting off PDP’s votes.  

The experience of each candidate (economically and politically)

Lagos is the model for all states, and Tinubu over the years has born the crown unchallenged as the brain behind modern Lagos. If all Nigerians migrate to Lagos because of the conducive business environment, the opportunity to make Nigeria, a strong business environment is appealing to the electorate. His main opposition, Atiku has never been the number 1 in public office, so his experience is questionable as his Principal, Obasanjo distanced him from some of his government’s achievements. Also, his claim as the Head of the Economic management team was debunked by Oby Ezekwesili – that was Ngozi Okonjo- Iweala’s glory.

Nigeria needs someone with credible experience in generating revenue and from the image below, Bola Ahmed and his running mate Kashim Shettima were the best performing in generating revenue in their time as governors. 

Conclusively, Bola Tinubu is the most astute politician in the country, he has forged alliances over the years which would align for him pre-elections and post-elections. Post-elections, because he has the political capacity and network to see a synergic relationship with the Legislative. Most of his plans in the APC manifesto will require the political capacity to implement across states and local governments and he is the best in that regard. He has been identified as an exceptional manager of resources and a seasoned administrator and he is convinced that the nation needs him in the next dispensation.

By antecedents, he has the capacity and the political will to institute a new concept of governance and new agenda of sustainable development, to provide effective leadership, capable of providing solutions to the numerous challenges confronting the nation.

Lagos would rank among Africa’s ten largest economies and does not rely on oil revenues to fund its budget.

But admittedly, he understands he cannot simply replicate Lagos’s transformation nationwide. Nigeria is complex and variegated. The way forward is to recognize the strengths of each section of the country and provide the bases on which they can all thrive is the path to economic growth. If anyone knows what can be achieved when the federal government allows adequate space for regional differences, it is him, and he plans to devolve more powers to the state as they should have greater authority to provide services and infrastructure projects, as well as more control over law enforcement.

Opeoluwa Dapo-Thomas is an international financial analyst with interests in public policy in Nigeria and Sub-saharan Africa.