Why you should do everything to avoid COVID-19

In reaction to Memo to Nigerians on COVID-19 published in this column last week, a dear reader wrote to admonish me about the need to avoid fear mongering. His premise, which I truly understand, is that COVID-19 is not necessarily the “all-conquering killer” people make it look like.

He argued that not everyone is vulnerable to the virus, given the role that a healthy immune system is known to play in fighting off infections. He cited a letter to the editor, written by Dr Doyin Okupe, physician/politician and a COVID-19 survivor, “despite his advanced age.”

He concluded his intervention by opining that “the right information matters, to avoid misinformation and fear mongering.” While I agree that providing information on how people can avoid infection is critical, the point should also be made that prevailing circumstances in Nigeria require being upfront with Nigerians about why they need to take adequate precautions, something which is, unfortunately, not in the contemplation of most of us at the moment.
This last week, I deliberately took note of quite a number of commercial buses in Lagos. I observed that while the buses were loaded to capacity, literarily none of the passengers had their face masks on. There you see the two protocols of physical distancing and wearing of face masks literally thrown out of the window.

It is indeed possible that being in the sun and the vitamin D it provides might produce enough immunity, which makes it difficult for the virus to penetrate the bodies of its human hosts or make their infections mild infections,as indicated in the Okupe article. However, people with mild infection courtesy of their strong immunity, are capable of transmitting the virus to more vulnerable people.

So, while the carrier (or is it host) may indeed have immunity against the virus, loads of people who interact with them may contract it and not be so immune. In any case, although the preponderance of opinion in medical circles is that Vitamin D3 indeed helps ward off coronavirus and aids recovery of patients, science has not reached a conclusion about this. This is why scientists and physicians are battling with political leadership on the need to liberally provide these supplements to people in Europe and America.

Even more important is the new and continuously evolving nature of the virus itself. Just while the world thought it had a handle of it with the emergence of vaccines that are now in use in some countries, new strains surfaced! Scientists believe that every time the virus transmits from one person to the other,it develops changes to its genetic code causing what they call “immune escape or immune recognition.”

According to a Wednesday report by www.bbc.com, one of the mutations identified by some researchers in the United Kingdom “was a deletion of two amino acids – known as H69 and V70 – in the spike protein sitting on the outside of the COVID-19 virus.” The protein is believed to play a key role in the ability of the coronavirus to infect cells.

Current evidence indicates that these variants, which were first noticed in the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Brazil and now in at least 45 other countries by the middle of January, are between 50 and 75 per cent more transmissible than the original COVID-19 virus. The bbc.com report also suggests the variants are associated with higher fatality rates.

Now, given the legendary mobility of Nigerians within these countries and the evidently lax screening and enforcement at our ports of entry, we can only hope that Nigeria does not already have these more deadly variants. Even though this can however not be immediately confirmed, the current rate of infections and death in Nigeria is something that should worry!

For instance, while Nigeria had 87,510 cases of infection between February 27 and December 31, 2020, it has reported 25,795 cases in the first 20 days of January 2021. It is true that with 91,200 hospital discharges, an overwhelming majority of people infected have survived the disease, but the number of deaths has increased alarmingly.

This January alone, Nigeria has recorded 175 as against a total of 1,289 in 10 months last year! On Tuesday, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State told a press conference that the demand for oxygen of COVID-19 patients in the state was rising exponentially. From 70 six-litre cylinders, which the state needed a couple of weeks back, demand has now risen by 500 per cent to 350 six- litre cylinders. This is projected to rise to 750 six-litre cylinders in another 10 days. On the same day, the Minister of Health, Dr Ehinare Osagie, told the country that one out of every five people recently tested for coronavirus posted a positive result. Now, if this does not call for worry in a country with an already overstretched, perennially inefficient health system, I do not know what would.
Again, while it is true that not everyone is susceptible to the coronavirus infection, we must, with every force available to us, speak to all Nigerians about the need to remain safe.

While it is also true that coronavirus does not kill everyone who gets infected, it is also a fact that no one can tell how the disease will hit one regardless of the level of immunity. Even when people live to tell the story, you can only imagine the psychological effect the weeks of isolation and treatment have on those who have suffered from the ailment.

Consider the uncertainty surrounding the severity or not of every case. At onset, no one, not even the people with the mildest symptoms, can vouch that it will remain so. It is an emotional roller coaster that no one should encounter.
Think about the trauma a man or woman goes through in the fear that they may have infected their loved ones. The fear that after coming in contact with the virus, one might have passed it on to one’s spouse, children or even a parent who stays with one. Imagine the torment of waiting for the confirmatory tests for family member after one might have tested positive. That is not to speak of the torture of the guilt one will live with if any member of the family gets infected and for any reason, suffers more than one in the course of treatment!

That is not to speak of the prospect of being in one’s house for weeks without being able to interact with family members. One will hear the voices of one’s children. Imagine that for two weeks or, they will pass one food like one does to a dangerous lion in its den- because that is exactly what one is for those moments- dangerous!
So, the point here is that, in spite of all the fairly low mortality, Nigerians should do everything to avoid getting infected. When you have a country where government does not just look on helplessly when citizens endanger their own lives and that of others, but even complicates the situation by compelling them to gather in circumstances that expose them to danger, you must do all within your power to keep yourself and your loved ones out of jeopardy.
That means doing all within your means to build your immunity and observe all non-pharmaceutical protocols enunciated by the World Health Organisation and thereafter, leave the rest to God. May God comfort everyone who has lost their loved ones to this pandemic.

Adedokun tweets @niranadedokun